sifta
Youth Player
Posts: 449
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Post by sifta on Feb 23, 2020 14:20:29 GMT
With a few minutes to idle away on a Sunday morning, I was wondering why we weren't pulling away given our current form, so I thought I'd work out the difference in points/game for all teams in the league since November 5th, before the Barnsley game. The answer is that the teams that started well are getting worse, and the teams that started badly are improving. It looks like classic regression to the mean, with all of the top teams apart from Fulham performing worse than they did earlier in the season, (Some like Swansea, and Charlton spectacularly so), and conversely apart from Wigan, and Luton the teams at the bottom have all improved (The good news is that we have improved the most!) I don't know what this proves, but now I've done the maths, I thought I may as well share the results. The one thing I would say is that if I were a Charlton fan I'd be very worried. Team Pos Nov 5th | PPG Before Nov 5th | PPG After Nov 5th | PPG Difference | WBA | 2.0 | 1.8 | -0.2 | Leeds | 1.9 | 1.7 | -0.1 | Preston | 1.9 | 1.4 | -0.5 | Swansea | 1.9 | 1.1 | -0.8 | Forest | 1.8 | 1.6 | -0.2 | Bristol_City | 1.7 | 1.6 | -0.1 | Wednesday | 1.6 | 1.1 | -0.5 | Fulham | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | QPR | 1.5 | 1.1 | -0.5 | Birmingham | 1.5 | 1.2 | -0.2 | Hull | 1.5 | 1.1 | -0.4 | Charlton | 1.5 | 0.8 | -0.7 | Brentford | 1.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | Cardiff | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.2 | Derby | 1.4 | 1.3 | -0.1 | Blackburn | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | Millwall | 1.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | Huddersfield | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | Reading | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | Wigan | 1.0 | 0.9 | -0.1 | Luton | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 | Middlesbrough | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | Barnsley | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | Stoke | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
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Post by skip on Feb 23, 2020 14:24:10 GMT
Ace. I mean, it's ace that someone, and that someone is you, does cool shit like this on a Sunday.
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Post by chad on Feb 23, 2020 14:32:20 GMT
Great to see we are the most improved team
However I’m worried for you. Are there no pubs where you live 🤔
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sifta
Youth Player
Posts: 449
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Post by sifta on Feb 23, 2020 14:44:05 GMT
Great to see we are the most improved team However I’m worried for you. Are there no pubs where you live 🤔
On my way now to watch the rugby
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Post by mrcoke on Feb 23, 2020 14:55:06 GMT
Good work well done.
Now we want all the theories why such a phenomenon exists.
1. There are Pulis type managers who get players super fit before the season, and hit the ground running at the start of the season. When other teams catch up in terms of fitness their true level of talent becomes apparent.
2. There are Hughes type managers who believe in not exhausting players early in the season, but expect to build up during the season an be at their best when it counts most during the last quarter of the season.
3. There are Bielsa type managers who believe in playing high tempo matches, which accumulates a lot of points quickly, but eventually players tire and lose their edge. Leeds 2018, 2019, 2020?
4. The early season successful teams are studied and analysed and their strengths and weaknesses are sussed out by other clubs and then counteracted and exposed.
5. Teams change manager during the season and the "new manager bounce" occurs, sometimes to run out of steam. Beware Stoke.
6. Player have their brains in their boots not their heads and think if they are winning it's easy, they are brilliant, they should be playing for a better club and they take their foot of the gas. That's why they concede goals just after scoring. e.g Middlesbrough's recent good run after they beat us has fizzled out.
I'm sure you can think of more....................
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Post by kjpt140v on Feb 23, 2020 15:01:58 GMT
I was going to say something smart arsed but as someone who loves playing with numbers, I say fairplay and well done.
Football stats are fluid therefore on the pitch we have to look for a good work rate and consistency.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2020 15:04:40 GMT
I don't wish to steal the OP's excellent thunder here, but i've taken it down to my simple simon level - PPG since the turn of the year. This is the PPG since Jan 1st and points projection at current PPG. WBA | 1.67 | 86 | | Preston | 1.89 | 79 | | Brentford | 1.78 | 77 | | Fulham | 1.67 | 77 | | Leeds | 1.22 | 77 | | Forest | 1.30 | 72 | | Blackburn | 1.67 | 71 | | Swansea | 1.44 | 68 | | Cardiff | 1.44 | 67 | | Birmingham | 1.78 | 66 | | Bristol City | 1.00 | 65 | | Derby | 1.67 | 65 | | Millwall | 1.33 | 65 | | Stoke | 1.78 | 58 | | QPR | 1.22 | 58 | | Reading | 1.00 | 54 | | Charlton | 1.22 | 54 | | Sheffield Wednesday | 0.67 | 53 | | Wigan | 1.56 | 53 | | Hull | 0.56 | 48 | | Huddersfield | 0.89 | 47 | | Middlesbrough | 0.78 | 46 | | Barnsley | 1.11 | 44 | | Luton | 1.00 | 42 | |
Interesting...
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Post by Gods on Feb 23, 2020 15:30:30 GMT
Fantastic work, I was wondering exactly the same and you have the answer.
Despite our astonishing turnaround had we lost yesterday we'd be level on points with a bottom 3 club.
Fuck it's tight at the bottom.
NB I guess if you take 2 points from the first possible 30 as we did you are condemned to a season in catchup mode.
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Post by Clayton Wood on Feb 23, 2020 15:41:50 GMT
I don't wish to steal the OP's excellent thunder here, but i've taken it down to my simple simon level - PPG since the turn of the year. This is the PPG since Jan 1st and points projection at current PPG. WBA | 1.67 | 86 | | Preston | 1.89 | 79 | | Brentford | 1.78 | 77 | | Fulham | 1.67 | 77 | | Leeds | 1.22 | 77 | | Forest | 1.30 | 72 | | Blackburn | 1.67 | 71 | | Swansea | 1.44 | 68 | | Cardiff | 1.44 | 67 | | Birmingham | 1.78 | 66 | | Bristol City | 1.00 | 65 | | Derby | 1.67 | 65 | | Millwall | 1.33 | 65 | | Stoke | 1.78 | 58 | | QPR | 1.22 | 58 | | Reading | 1.00 | 54 | | Charlton | 1.22 | 54 | | Sheffield Wednesday | 0.67 | 53 | | Wigan | 1.56 | 53 | | Hull | 0.56 | 48 | | Huddersfield | 0.89 | 47 | | Middlesbrough | 0.78 | 46 | | Barnsley | 1.11 | 44 | | Luton | 1.00 | 42 | |
Interesting... Does the projection take in us playing teams such as Boro & Wigan? Both sides can't pick up partial PPG from each other simultaneously.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2020 15:52:53 GMT
I don't wish to steal the OP's excellent thunder here, but i've taken it down to my simple simon level - PPG since the turn of the year. This is the PPG since Jan 1st and points projection at current PPG. WBA | 1.67 | 86 | | Preston | 1.89 | 79 | | Brentford | 1.78 | 77 | | Fulham | 1.67 | 77 | | Leeds | 1.22 | 77 | | Forest | 1.30 | 72 | | Blackburn | 1.67 | 71 | | Swansea | 1.44 | 68 | | Cardiff | 1.44 | 67 | | Birmingham | 1.78 | 66 | | Bristol City | 1.00 | 65 | | Derby | 1.67 | 65 | | Millwall | 1.33 | 65 | | Stoke | 1.78 | 58 | | QPR | 1.22 | 58 | | Reading | 1.00 | 54 | | Charlton | 1.22 | 54 | | Sheffield Wednesday | 0.67 | 53 | | Wigan | 1.56 | 53 | | Hull | 0.56 | 48 | | Huddersfield | 0.89 | 47 | | Middlesbrough | 0.78 | 46 | | Barnsley | 1.11 | 44 | | Luton | 1.00 | 42 | |
Interesting... Does the projection take in us playing teams such as Boro & Wigan? Both sides can't pick up partial PPG from each other simultaneously. Just give us a couple of weeks and i'll let you know!
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Post by Clayton Wood on Feb 23, 2020 16:02:30 GMT
Does the projection take in us playing teams such as Boro & Wigan? Both sides can't pick up partial PPG from each other simultaneously. Just give us a couple of weeks and i'll let you know! No criticism mate! I'm not even sure in my own mind if it's a valid question or not
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Post by chigstoke on Feb 23, 2020 16:07:39 GMT
I don't wish to steal the OP's excellent thunder here, but i've taken it down to my simple simon level - PPG since the turn of the year. This is the PPG since Jan 1st and points projection at current PPG. WBA | 1.67 | 86 | | Preston | 1.89 | 79 | | Brentford | 1.78 | 77 | | Fulham | 1.67 | 77 | | Leeds | 1.22 | 77 | | Forest | 1.30 | 72 | | Blackburn | 1.67 | 71 | | Swansea | 1.44 | 68 | | Cardiff | 1.44 | 67 | | Birmingham | 1.78 | 66 | | Bristol City | 1.00 | 65 | | Derby | 1.67 | 65 | | Millwall | 1.33 | 65 | | Stoke | 1.78 | 58 | | QPR | 1.22 | 58 | | Reading | 1.00 | 54 | | Charlton | 1.22 | 54 | | Sheffield Wednesday | 0.67 | 53 | | Wigan | 1.56 | 53 | | Hull | 0.56 | 48 | | Huddersfield | 0.89 | 47 | | Middlesbrough | 0.78 | 46 | | Barnsley | 1.11 | 44 | | Luton | 1.00 | 42 | |
Interesting... Two teams I see there that need to take care are Hull and Sheffield Wednesday. Their PPG has been awful and they've both seen a drop in the table. It is not beyond the realms of possibility for them to get drawn in towards seasons close. Not that I mind, the worse the others do, the better for us!
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Post by Gods on Feb 23, 2020 17:03:30 GMT
This whole 'more teams drawn in' is an interesting one, while it's nice to see more teams in the dog fight I suspect on balance it would be better for us if the 3 teams at the bottom just crashed and burned.
And that is precisely what is not happening!
And the reason why despite exhibiting border line play-off form over 19 matches we are still only 3 points from the trap door.
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Post by mrcoke on Feb 23, 2020 17:11:25 GMT
This whole 'more teams drawn in' is an interesting one, while it's nice to see more teams in the dog fight I suspect on balance it would be better for us if the 3 teams at the bottom just crashed and burned. And that is precisely what is not happening! I agree. At least our destiny is to a large degree in our own hands. We still have to play 4 of the 5 teams below us. Win those and we will pull away, probably. Lose them and we deserve to be relegated.
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Post by rawli on Feb 23, 2020 17:13:49 GMT
Ace. I mean, it's ace that someone, and that someone is you, does cool shit like this on a Sunday. I usually do a cool shit on a Sunday. Cup of tea and the sport section. Some surprising results if I've been on the Guinness the previous night.
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Post by Vadiation_Ribe on Feb 23, 2020 17:14:56 GMT
It's good to see it laid out like that. I've followed the form tables the past few months, and no one has really kept up good form for long. Similar to the Premier League apart from the obvious.
Charlton have picked up recently with 3 wins in the last 5, so their PPG between 5th November and before the 3 wins must have been awful.
theonlooker's table is worth bookmarking for May. There are always surprises, but I can't imagine the league will be massively far off.
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Post by datguy on Feb 23, 2020 17:22:18 GMT
It shows the job MO’N has done.
He came in when we were doomed on 8 points. Now we’re wondering how, given the huge increase in performance, we still haven’t pulled away. He deserves every piece of credit he gets imo.
Still need to survive yet. But he’s got a fine tune out of some lads that looked part of the bomb squad. There’s improvements to be had but fook me, he’s done well.
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Post by swampmongrel on Feb 23, 2020 17:39:00 GMT
Interestingly we’ve won 11 games this season which is the same amount of wins as all last season.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2020 17:43:10 GMT
I don't wish to steal the OP's excellent thunder here, but i've taken it down to my simple simon level - PPG since the turn of the year. This is the PPG since Jan 1st and points projection at current PPG. WBA | 1.67 | 86 | | Preston | 1.89 | 79 | | Brentford | 1.78 | 77 | | Fulham | 1.67 | 77 | | Leeds | 1.22 | 77 | | Forest | 1.30 | 72 | | Blackburn | 1.67 | 71 | | Swansea | 1.44 | 68 | | Cardiff | 1.44 | 67 | | Birmingham | 1.78 | 66 | | Bristol City | 1.00 | 65 | | Derby | 1.67 | 65 | | Millwall | 1.33 | 65 | | Stoke | 1.78 | 58 | | QPR | 1.22 | 58 | | Reading | 1.00 | 54 | | Charlton | 1.22 | 54 | | Sheffield Wednesday | 0.67 | 53 | | Wigan | 1.56 | 53 | | Hull | 0.56 | 48 | | Huddersfield | 0.89 | 47 | | Middlesbrough | 0.78 | 46 | | Barnsley | 1.11 | 44 | | Luton | 1.00 | 42 | |
Interesting... What OP's tells us though is quite how much we have improved, we might not be the best side in the league on current form but it's a good reminder of how much better we are than before.
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Post by neddy on Feb 23, 2020 17:46:30 GMT
I don't wish to steal the OP's excellent thunder here, but i've taken it down to my simple simon level - PPG since the turn of the year. This is the PPG since Jan 1st and points projection at current PPG. WBA | 1.67 | 86 | | Preston | 1.89 | 79 | | Brentford | 1.78 | 77 | | Fulham | 1.67 | 77 | | Leeds | 1.22 | 77 | | Forest | 1.30 | 72 | | Blackburn | 1.67 | 71 | | Swansea | 1.44 | 68 | | Cardiff | 1.44 | 67 | | Birmingham | 1.78 | 66 | | Bristol City | 1.00 | 65 | | Derby | 1.67 | 65 | | Millwall | 1.33 | 65 | | Stoke | 1.78 | 58 | | QPR | 1.22 | 58 | | Reading | 1.00 | 54 | | Charlton | 1.22 | 54 | | Sheffield Wednesday | 0.67 | 53 | | Wigan | 1.56 | 53 | | Hull | 0.56 | 48 | | Huddersfield | 0.89 | 47 | | Middlesbrough | 0.78 | 46 | | Barnsley | 1.11 | 44 | | Luton | 1.00 | 42 | |
Interesting... What OP's tells us though is quite how much we have improved, we might not be the best side in the league on current form but it's a good reminder of how much better we are than before. And essentially with the same players 🤔
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2020 17:48:17 GMT
What OP's tells us though is quite how much we have improved, we might not be the best side in the league on current form but it's a good reminder of how much better we are than before. And essentially with the same players 🤔 I'd argue the squad is much weaker on paper for losing Etebo and N'Diaye frankly.
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Post by neddy on Feb 23, 2020 17:50:40 GMT
And essentially with the same players 🤔 I'd argue the squad is much weaker on paper for losing Etebo and N'Diaye frankly. And yet still the improvement.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2020 17:51:24 GMT
I don't wish to steal the OP's excellent thunder here, but i've taken it down to my simple simon level - PPG since the turn of the year. This is the PPG since Jan 1st and points projection at current PPG. WBA | 1.67 | 86 | | Preston | 1.89 | 79 | | Brentford | 1.78 | 77 | | Fulham | 1.67 | 77 | | Leeds | 1.22 | 77 | | Forest | 1.30 | 72 | | Blackburn | 1.67 | 71 | | Swansea | 1.44 | 68 | | Cardiff | 1.44 | 67 | | Birmingham | 1.78 | 66 | | Bristol City | 1.00 | 65 | | Derby | 1.67 | 65 | | Millwall | 1.33 | 65 | | Stoke | 1.78 | 58 | | QPR | 1.22 | 58 | | Reading | 1.00 | 54 | | Charlton | 1.22 | 54 | | Sheffield Wednesday | 0.67 | 53 | | Wigan | 1.56 | 53 | | Hull | 0.56 | 48 | | Huddersfield | 0.89 | 47 | | Middlesbrough | 0.78 | 46 | | Barnsley | 1.11 | 44 | | Luton | 1.00 | 42 | |
Interesting... What OP's tells us though is quite how much we have improved, we might not be the best side in the league on current form but it's a good reminder of how much better we are than before. Oh absolutely, i'm just too thick to understand it...
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Post by swampmongrel on Feb 23, 2020 17:55:54 GMT
I’d be interested to see some more xG stuff for the past few games. Where’s Tachyon?
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Post by mystokebadge on Feb 23, 2020 18:44:06 GMT
Very good work but I take it you did not wake up with a hangover this morning
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Post by heworksardtho on Feb 23, 2020 18:46:52 GMT
My Mrs said the same when she caught me watching babe station 😎
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Post by mrcoke on Feb 23, 2020 19:04:54 GMT
And essentially with the same players 🤔 I'd argue the squad is much weaker on paper for losing Etebo and N'Diaye frankly. That's the nub of the issue. Football is not just about individuals, squad strength, and tactics/systems/strategy, the most important factor is teamwork. Players need to be talented, perform well, and have commitment but to get results they need to play for each other and work as a team. MON has moved on the 2 you mention but still has a problem with too many players still on an ego trip. I'm looking forward to see who else he can manage without next summer.
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Post by bertiestan on Feb 23, 2020 19:18:19 GMT
With a few minutes to idle away on a Sunday morning, I was wondering why we weren't pulling away given our current form, so I thought I'd work out the difference in points/game for all teams in the league since November 5th, before the Barnsley game. The answer is that the teams that started well are getting worse, and the teams that started badly are improving. It looks like classic regression to the mean, with all of the top teams apart from Fulham performing worse than they did earlier in the season, (Some like Swansea, and Charlton spectacularly so), and conversely apart from Wigan, and Luton the teams at the bottom have all improved (The good news is that we have improved the most!) I don't know what this proves, but now I've done the maths, I thought I may as well share the results. The one thing I would say is that if I were a Charlton fan I'd be very worried. Team Pos Nov 5th | PPG Before Nov 5th | PPG After Nov 5th | PPG Difference | WBA | 2.0 | 1.8 | -0.2 | Leeds | 1.9 | 1.7 | -0.1 | Preston | 1.9 | 1.4 | -0.5 | Swansea | 1.9 | 1.1 | -0.8 | Forest | 1.8 | 1.6 | -0.2 | Bristol_City | 1.7 | 1.6 | -0.1 | Wednesday | 1.6 | 1.1 | -0.5 | Fulham | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | QPR | 1.5 | 1.1 | -0.5 | Birmingham | 1.5 | 1.2 | -0.2 | Hull | 1.5 | 1.1 | -0.4 | Charlton | 1.5 | 0.8 | -0.7 | Brentford | 1.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | Cardiff | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.2 | Derby | 1.4 | 1.3 | -0.1 | Blackburn | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | Millwall | 1.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | Huddersfield | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | Reading | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | Wigan | 1.0 | 0.9 | -0.1 | Luton | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 | Middlesbrough | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | Barnsley | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | Stoke | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
Reading between the lines i see your names sifta...is that in ref to mr sifta on shakermaker? If so i’d say you had something about you once upon a time, could i ask whats happened?
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Post by tachyon on Feb 23, 2020 19:19:49 GMT
Here's the game by game xG for this season. Attachment DeletedOur ten game rolling xG differential has taken a hit because we've replaced our best xG attacking performance (home to SW) with our worst defensive display (away at QPR). Overall our master rating has us as just outside the league's top six. Simulations of the remainder of the season results in relegation in nine out of every 100 iterations. Our average final points has a median value of 54 points. Our most common final position is 18th and we just creep into the top ten in around 1 in every 100 simulations Any points deduction for any of our rivals only improves these numbers. Of the teams threatened with a deduction, we have Derby & Birmingham each finishing with 60 earned points and SW with 62.
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Feb 23, 2020 19:26:59 GMT
Here's the game by game xG for this season. View AttachmentOur ten game rolling xG differential has taken a hit because we've replaced our best xG attacking performance (home to SW) with our worst defensive display (away at QPR). Overall our master rating has us as just outside the league's top six. Simulations of the remainder of the season results in relegation in nine out of every 100 iterations. Our average final points has a median value of 54 points. Our most common final position is 18th and we just creep into the top ten in around 1 in every 100 simulations Any points deduction for any of our rivals only improves these numbers. Of the teams threatened with a deduction, we have Derby & Birmingham each finishing with 60 earned points and SW with 62. So in technical language: we’re not fucked 🤣
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