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Post by lordb on Oct 19, 2020 16:15:36 GMT
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Post by a on Oct 19, 2020 16:42:27 GMT
Really?! Bloody Nora I wouldn’t have thought conceding nearly a goal and a half a game was below average but there you go.
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Post by liathroid on Oct 19, 2020 18:17:17 GMT
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Oct 19, 2020 18:19:14 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2020 19:36:46 GMT
Hopefully the arrival of Gunn doesn't cause Davies to go postal.
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Post by tachyon on Oct 20, 2020 7:22:59 GMT
PL model is built on data from top flight keepers & outfielders & the Championship one uses players from that league. It takes into account the change in quality when you go up a division. You could say Gunn's a v good Championship keeper, but hasn't made the jump to PL levels. Here's the saves/goals from both leagues. View AttachmentLooks like you needed to find the corners against him in the lower league, but proportionally he struggled with anything on target in the Prem. Christ did he concede circa 50 goals in the championship?? Edit: 60 goals for Norwich. Doesn’t that seem a lot? Norwich wern't a very good side when Gunn was on loan with them. They allowed alot of shots and a typical Championship keeper would have conceded around 7 more than Gunn did based on the quality & quantity of on target attempts faced. Goals conceded per game is generally a contextless, junk stat. Needs drop kicking out of the ground when evaluating a keeper.
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Post by lordb on Oct 20, 2020 7:26:09 GMT
Really?! Bloody Nora I wouldn’t have thought conceding nearly a goal and a half a game was below average but there you go. 46 game season, goal and a half would be 69 50-60 appears to be the norm Less than that you can expect to be right up there
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Post by tachyon on Oct 20, 2020 7:43:36 GMT
It's a general trend, although there will be exceptions. (Dean Henderson). Since 2014 80% of the keepers making the jump from Championship to PL have seen their quality adjusted save percentage take a hit in the higher league. On average, their shot stopping performance levels declined by 10%. You see the same in reverse. PL keepers dropping down to the Championship. Performance relative to the group they are now a part of "improves" by 10%. Of course their core ability doesn't really change, it's the jump or drop in class that mostly changes their position in the pecking order. Reason's are a double whammy. You're facing better finishers & the cohort you're being compared against (the other PL keepers) are likely of higher quality. Gunn's most probably a very good Championship keeper, but there's real work to do if he's to be even an average PL one. Tachyon, is there any data on what a typical effort on goal is across the PL and Championship? For example, does either see significantly more shots from range or headed efforts? Detailed data collection in its current form goes back to 2014/15. It includes location based information on where an attempt was taken from, shot or headed, where on the frame of the goal it would/did cross the line, as well a details of how good the shot was and from which phase of play they originated. Prior to that data wasn't as detailed. Current data lets you build models to show the quality of chances a side is creating/allowing (dreaded xG), as well as the quality of the chances that need the keeper to make a save (imaginatively named xG2). xG2 is used to rate a keeper's shot stopping performance. Save more than you should & you're doing well, let more in & you're not. Of most interest from a team defence viewpoint is the difference between xG & xG2. If you're allowing smaller amounts of xG2 compared to xG that means an opponent is getting into good positions, but not really hitting the target & that could mean your defence is doing a good job of pressurising the shooter. Liverpool did it par excellence last season & Burnley has done it well, but with a lot of variation in the past. Stoke are restricting xG2 with Davies in a way they weren't with JB in goal (& Davies also played in a Barnsley side that showed the same trait). It's been written about here Adam Davies PerformanceBack to your original question. Yes I've got keeper models going back to 2014/15 for the Championship & PL, I'll see if there's any differences/similarities.
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Post by tachyon on Oct 20, 2020 8:27:29 GMT
Tachyon, is there any data on what a typical effort on goal is across the PL and Championship? For example, does either see significantly more shots from range or headed efforts? Pretty uniform between the two leagues. Similar number of chances created from set plays/corners/open play/1 on 1's/pull backs. Slightly more from fast breaks in the PL, slightly more shots designated as "strong" in the PL. PL shoot proportionally, a bit more often & from around half a yard closer, on average. Also more centrally. Same with headers, PL closer & more central.
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Post by mattythestokie on Oct 20, 2020 9:00:36 GMT
Jack wishing Gunn good luck on twitter.
Very classy.
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Post by walrus on Oct 20, 2020 10:33:20 GMT
Tachyon, is there any data on what a typical effort on goal is across the PL and Championship? For example, does either see significantly more shots from range or headed efforts? Pretty uniform between the two leagues. Similar number of chances created from set plays/corners/open play/1 on 1's/pull backs. Slightly more from fast breaks in the PL, slightly more shots designated as "strong" in the PL. PL shoot proportionally, a bit more often & from around half a yard closer, on average. Also more centrally. Same with headers, PL closer & more central. Thanks! Nothing too interesting to be gleaned from that then.
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Post by datguy on Oct 20, 2020 11:36:40 GMT
Do you put him in against Spurs?
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Post by FullerMagic on Oct 25, 2020 8:21:06 GMT
Nixon
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Post by FullerMagic on Oct 27, 2020 20:40:50 GMT
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Post by jeycov on Oct 27, 2020 20:42:38 GMT
Davies did take a knock when he closed down in the 1v1 attempt from Swansea
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Post by bgreen13 on Oct 27, 2020 20:53:26 GMT
Oh look its its a good job we signed Gunn.
Injuries happen
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Post by jeycov on Oct 27, 2020 21:42:15 GMT
Their 2nd goal - had their player missed a certain red card for Gunn and who knows would be in goal if Davies is injured
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2020 21:45:24 GMT
After 45 mins, I’d happily have him as sub the remaining of the season. Fingers crossed Davies is back next game, he looks far more composed.
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Post by RF10 on Oct 27, 2020 21:49:46 GMT
Their 2nd goal - had their player missed a certain red card for Gunn and who knows would be in goal if Davies is injured It wouldn't due to the double jeopardy rule.
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Post by jimigoodwinsbeard on Oct 27, 2020 21:50:47 GMT
After 45 mins, I’d happily have him as sub the remaining of the season. Fingers crossed Davies is back next game, he looks far more composed. Give the guy a chance. Christ, hes got fox and chester in the defence in front of him.
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Post by liathroid on Oct 27, 2020 21:53:18 GMT
when the ball came into the box he took 2 steps back and then went ,but was late
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Post by miltonpotter on Oct 27, 2020 21:53:33 GMT
Jakob Haugaard in disguise Wank!
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Post by everyoneneedsawhelan on Oct 27, 2020 21:59:21 GMT
Jakob Haugaard in disguise Wank! I really do despair with our fans sometimes
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Post by dirtygary69 on Oct 27, 2020 22:02:52 GMT
Not a great introduction.
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Post by robwahlmann on Oct 27, 2020 22:03:02 GMT
Gunn debut with a bang! I'm just glad it's only a loan!
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Post by march4 on Oct 27, 2020 22:04:56 GMT
Butland #2
Let’s hope he never ever plays again.
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Oct 27, 2020 22:05:35 GMT
Bit early to be bashing Gunn especially when we have Triceratops Vokes ambling about...
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2020 22:08:09 GMT
Oh look its its a good job we signed Gunn. Injuries happen Any second-keeper would've sufficed wouldn't they though. No one's personally attacked Gunn. People simply expressed concerns that it might push Davies out. It's a good job we signed another keeper. It's still bemusing how MON keeps them both happy, which was always the concern...
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Post by Trouserdog on Oct 27, 2020 22:10:18 GMT
The slip was unfortunate so can't really judge him on that.
Dreadful for the goal, but two good saves other than that.
I really hope Davies is fit for the next game though.
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Post by likelyladgalizmo on Oct 27, 2020 22:10:22 GMT
Shades of Van Needleman
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