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Post by mrcoke on Jan 27, 2023 9:38:02 GMT
To answer your question: There is no question of whether there are labour shortages across the EU. In the EU more than 3% of all available jobs are vacant; more than ever since statistical records of this data started in 2006. This amounts to around six million jobs vacant across the EU. The EU’s unemployment rate dropped to 6.0% last July, the lowest figure since 2001. It follows there are far fewer people seeking work and far fewer likely to emigrate to the UK. In Germany more than half the country's companies are struggling to fill vacancies due to a lack of skilled workers, according to the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK). The proportion of companies facing difficulties hiring was at its highest ever level, the DIHK found in its survey of 22,000 companies, with 53% reporting shortages. The Euro area labour market has been severely hit by the coronavirus pandemic and associated containment measures, which is explained at length in the next link: www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2021/html/ecb.ebart202008_02~bc749d90e7.en.htmlIt should be noted how the fall in unemployment stated in 2013. Labour shortages in the EU began long before the Brexit referendum. 1. Turning to the UK labour shortage, there have been reports explaining the issues causing the problem and spelling out the reasons. The UK workforce is 400,000 smaller since the pandemic, only Italy in the G7 has seen a larger percentage drop in the workforce. As we all know Italy was severely hit by the pandemic as was the UK. A major cause is the very high level of long term sickness in the UK. Research has shown that inactivity among people over the age of 50 was the most important contributor to the decrease in the size of the workforce, with numbers much higher than what might have been expected based on pre-pandemic trends. A report by the Office for National Statistics stated last year " The fall in employment seen since 2016 have been largely driven by UK nationals". It is wrong to claim that there was a mass exodus of EU workers following the referendum. In the 12 months to September 2020, the number of EU workers increased by 119,000 workers when compared with the same period in 2016. There was an exodus following the pandemic due to lockdown and many returning to there homelands. As I have explained at length in another post, for those from Eastern Europe job opportunities are now far greater, so why return to the UK? uksa.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/submission/office-for-national-statistics-written-evidence-to-the-business-energy-and-industrial-strategy-committees-inquiry-into-post-pandemic-growth-uk-labour-market/2. Regrettably there are those anti Brexit campaigners who wish to blame the problem of UK labour shortage on Brexit. A recent article by "UK In A Changing Europe" repeats the errors that were published by Nuffield Trust article on the shortage of doctors. The shortage of EU labour is based on the same fallacious premise that if Brexit/referendum had not resulted in the decision to leave the EU, that the inward net migration of EU citizens would have continued at the same pre-referendum rate. This is false because of firstly post pandemic effects, labour shortages in other EU countries such as Germany, and the improved economies and wages of East European states. There is no way with or without Brexit that migration to the UK would have continued at the same rate. There is no doubt that the UK lags behind some other countries on post-Covid employment recovery in terms of getting back to the same level of GDP in the last few weeks of 2019. This I contend is due to the long term under funding of the NHS, and the poor management of the pandemic at its outset resulting in the UK being far more seriously impacted than most developed countries. There are also structural reasons for the UK suffering more than other countries such as a large service industry sector, the high degree of commuting and international travel, etc. (In actual fact the rise in UK GDP since the depth of the pandemic in April 2020 has been larger than the rest of the G7 apart from the US. - but that is another issue.) The next link goes into more detail: obr.uk/box/the-impact-of-the-pandemic-on-labour-market-participation/I see the shortage of labour in the UK is a golden opportunity to address the major historical failing of the UK economy which is poor productivity. The UK has always lagged behind other leading nations in this respect. Employers have found it too easy to employ cheap labour due to higher levels of unemployment and a plentiful supply of cheap foreign labour, be it from the Commonwealth or the EU, rather than invest in automation, robotics, larger scale operations, etc. As a consequence British workers have been lower paid than many other developed countries. Thankfully even though we are only in the third year of Brexit, UK wage rates have started to improve at a higher rate than they did before Brexit. From the 2008 recession to the pandemic UK average weekly earnings growth was typically 2% to 4%. Thanks to Brexit, wages have been rising at circa 6%. tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/wage-growthA great number of UK companies are now realising they need to invest to improve productivity, which can only be good in the long term. Meanwhile the UK can continue to permit immigration from almost any country in the world on equal terms to fill jobs that need filling. My post above includes data from the following references: www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/labour-shortages-felt-all-over-europe/www.reuters.com/markets/europe/more-than-half-german-companies-report-labour-shortages-2023-01-12/www.eurofound.europa.eu/is/publications/report/2021/tackling-labour-shortages-in-eu-member-statesukandeu.ac.uk/the-impact-of-brexit-on-the-uk-labour-market-an-early-assessment/You are regurgitating the same old nonsense in a different format that has already been debunked I'll address two points you've made the rest is just smoke and mirrors I. In a previous life you several times repeated the same boast uttered by Bozo that there were more people on UK "Payroll" as a Brexit Win. You are now reversing that lie to justify Labour Shortages 2. The Nuffield Trust Report identified two specific issues as a result of Brexit A) Recruitment took place to replace Nurses who heretofore had been trained to a high standard within EU Countries They had been replaced NUMERICALLY by Nurses from Third World Countries who had lower qualifications Your response and I'll paraphrase was better a half trained Nurse than none at all 2. The Nuffield Report went on to highlight a Chronic shortage of Specialist Doctors from EU which UK had traditionally relied upon including Heart, Lung, Anesthetics and Dentistry It has nothing to do with predictive Consultant Doctor numbers www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/the-costs-of-brexit-make-severe-challenges-even-harder-for-the-nhs-and-social-careI think you are missing my points: 1. "Payroll" is at record levels. It has continued to rise during 2022 despite all the talk of doom and gloom and recession by those opposed to Brexit. The latest report is that payroll employment rose to 29.9 million the highest ever in UK history: www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/january2023An increase of circa 900,000 since Brexit; not the unemployment project fear forecast. That is not to be confused with the reduced workforce because people choose not to return to work or high sickness levels. Nor is it true that the reduced workforce is because of a mass exodus of EU citizens as I have repeated explained. 2. The Nuffield report was incorrect on two counts: A. It presumes that the recruitment of doctors, nurses, etc. would continue at the same rate as pre 2015, when in fact it had already started to slow down. It takes no account of the changes in the rest of Europe with other countries short of medical staff, even including the countries that were previously "supplying" most of the people coming to the UK, where wages and economies have improved dramatically. Therefore the reports that immigration from Europe would continue at the same rate had there not been Brexit are a fallacy. B. The second Nuffield link you posted was covered in my long post on medical staff shortages. It is wrong to suggest that a barrier to staff coming has been erected. Medical staff are top of the list of wanted staff list - please revisit my post. All immigrants are treated the same. The rate of immigration is at record levels. Some are being given financial assistance, such as refunding of the Immigration Health Charge if they qualify.
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Post by oggyoggy on Jan 27, 2023 11:34:32 GMT
You are regurgitating the same old nonsense in a different format that has already been debunked I'll address two points you've made the rest is just smoke and mirrors I. In a previous life you several times repeated the same boast uttered by Bozo that there were more people on UK "Payroll" as a Brexit Win. You are now reversing that lie to justify Labour Shortages 2. The Nuffield Trust Report identified two specific issues as a result of Brexit A) Recruitment took place to replace Nurses who heretofore had been trained to a high standard within EU Countries They had been replaced NUMERICALLY by Nurses from Third World Countries who had lower qualifications Your response and I'll paraphrase was better a half trained Nurse than none at all 2. The Nuffield Report went on to highlight a Chronic shortage of Specialist Doctors from EU which UK had traditionally relied upon including Heart, Lung, Anesthetics and Dentistry It has nothing to do with predictive Consultant Doctor numbers www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/the-costs-of-brexit-make-severe-challenges-even-harder-for-the-nhs-and-social-careI think you are missing my points: 1. "Payroll" is at record levels. It has continued to rise during 2022 despite all the talk of doom and gloom and recession by those opposed to Brexit. The latest report is that payroll employment rose to 29.9 million the highest ever in UK history: www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/january2023An increase of circa 900,000 since Brexit; not the unemployment project fear forecast. That is not to be confused with the reduced workforce because people choose not to return to work or high sickness levels. Nor is it true that the reduced workforce is because of a mass exodus of EU citizens as I have repeated explained. 2. The Nuffield report was incorrect on two counts: A. It presumes that the recruitment of doctors, nurses, etc. would continue at the same rate as pre 2015, when in fact it had already started to slow down. It takes no account of the changes in the rest of Europe with other countries short of medical staff, even including the countries that were previously "supplying" most of the people coming to the UK, where wages and economies have improved dramatically. Therefore the reports that immigration from Europe would continue at the same rate had there not been Brexit are a fallacy. B. The second Nuffield link you posted was covered in my long post on medical staff shortages. It is wrong to suggest that a barrier to staff coming has been erected. Medical staff are top of the list of wanted staff list - please revisit my post. All immigrants are treated the same. The rate of immigration is at record levels. Some are being given financial assistance, such as refunding of the Immigration Health Charge if they qualify. You do realise that we are more disliked now than pre-brexit. It means medical staff from the EU don’t want to come here like they used to. That is a direct result of brexit. But you of course know more about these topics than Nuffield and the BMA and the royal college of midwives!
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Post by Paul Spencer on Jan 27, 2023 13:05:29 GMT
Thank the lord this was only ever meant to be parody, if it hadn't of been, we'd want the fuckers jailed ...
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Post by wannabee on Jan 27, 2023 14:27:06 GMT
Thank the lord this was only ever meant to be parody, if it hadn't of been, we'd want the fuckers jailed ... And they say Irony is dead Extraordinary how so many believed this Crapola, there are even some who still do
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Post by lordb on Jan 27, 2023 16:40:01 GMT
Thank the lord this was only ever meant to be parody, if it hadn't of been, we'd want the fuckers jailed ... absolute bastards every thing in that has been proven to be not just wrong but spectacularly wrong
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Post by foghornsgleghorn on Jan 27, 2023 18:28:19 GMT
On 26th November 2022 in your post "Brexit 2nd Year 3rd Quarter progress to date (26.11.2022)" you go to some length to show that labour shortages are an issue across the EU. So if the labour shortages are Europe-wide ,why are you now saying the labour shortages in the UK are the reason for our slower recovery from the pandemic? To answer your question: There is no question of whether there are labour shortages across the EU. In the EU more than 3% of all available jobs are vacant; more than ever since statistical records of this data started in 2006. This amounts to around six million jobs vacant across the EU. The EU’s unemployment rate dropped to 6.0% last July, the lowest figure since 2001. It follows there are far fewer people seeking work and far fewer likely to emigrate to the UK. In Germany more than half the country's companies are struggling to fill vacancies due to a lack of skilled workers, according to the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK). The proportion of companies facing difficulties hiring was at its highest ever level, the DIHK found in its survey of 22,000 companies, with 53% reporting shortages. The Euro area labour market has been severely hit by the coronavirus pandemic and associated containment measures, which is explained at length in the next link: www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2021/html/ecb.ebart202008_02~bc749d90e7.en.htmlIt should be noted how the fall in unemployment stated in 2013. Labour shortages in the EU began long before the Brexit referendum. Turning to the UK labour shortage, there have been reports explaining the issues causing the problem and spelling out the reasons. The UK workforce is 400,000 smaller since the pandemic, only Italy in the G7 has seen a larger percentage drop in the workforce. As we all know Italy was severely hit by the pandemic as was the UK. A major cause is the very high level of long term sickness in the UK. Research has shown that inactivity among people over the age of 50 was the most important contributor to the decrease in the size of the workforce, with numbers much higher than what might have been expected based on pre-pandemic trends. A report by the Office for National Statistics stated last year " The fall in employment seen since 2016 have been largely driven by UK nationals". It is wrong to claim that there was a mass exodus of EU workers following the referendum. In the 12 months to September 2020, the number of EU workers increased by 119,000 workers when compared with the same period in 2016. There was an exodus following the pandemic due to lockdown and many returning to there homelands. As I have explained at length in another post, for those from Eastern Europe job opportunities are now far greater, so why return to the UK? uksa.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/submission/office-for-national-statistics-written-evidence-to-the-business-energy-and-industrial-strategy-committees-inquiry-into-post-pandemic-growth-uk-labour-market/Regrettably there are those anti Brexit campaigners who wish to blame the problem of UK labour shortage on Brexit. A recent article by "UK In A Changing Europe" repeats the errors that were published by Nuffield Trust article on the shortage of doctors. The shortage of EU labour is based on the same fallacious premise that if Brexit/referendum had not resulted in the decision to leave the EU, that the inward net migration of EU citizens would have continued at the same pre-referendum rate. This is false because of firstly post pandemic effects, labour shortages in other EU countries such as Germany, and the improved economies and wages of East European states. There is no way with or without Brexit that migration to the UK would have continued at the same rate. There is no doubt that the UK lags behind some other countries on post-Covid employment recovery in terms of getting back to the same level of GDP in the last few weeks of 2019. This I contend is due to the long term under funding of the NHS, and the poor management of the pandemic at its outset resulting in the UK being far more seriously impacted than most developed countries. There are also structural reasons for the UK suffering more than other countries such as a large service industry sector, the high degree of commuting and international travel, etc. (In actual fact the rise in UK GDP since the depth of the pandemic in April 2020 has been larger than the rest of the G7 apart from the US. - but that is another issue.) The next link goes into more detail: obr.uk/box/the-impact-of-the-pandemic-on-labour-market-participation/I see the shortage of labour in the UK is a golden opportunity to address the major historical failing of the UK economy which is poor productivity. The UK has always lagged behind other leading nations in this respect. Employers have found it too easy to employ cheap labour due to higher levels of unemployment and a plentiful supply of cheap foreign labour, be it from the Commonwealth or the EU, rather than invest in automation, robotics, larger scale operations, etc. As a consequence British workers have been lower paid than many other developed countries. Thankfully even though we are only in the third year of Brexit, UK wage rates have started to improve at a higher rate than they did before Brexit. From the 2008 recession to the pandemic UK average weekly earnings growth was typically 2% to 4%. Thanks to Brexit, wages have been rising at circa 6%. tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/wage-growthA great number of UK companies are now realising they need to invest to improve productivity, which can only be good in the long term. Meanwhile the UK can continue to permit immigration from almost any country in the world on equal terms to fill jobs that need filling. My post above includes data from the following references: www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/labour-shortages-felt-all-over-europe/www.reuters.com/markets/europe/more-than-half-german-companies-report-labour-shortages-2023-01-12/www.eurofound.europa.eu/is/publications/report/2021/tackling-labour-shortages-in-eu-member-statesukandeu.ac.uk/the-impact-of-brexit-on-the-uk-labour-market-an-early-assessment/Thankyou for your reply. Hopefully you can understand the trouble I'm having : In this reply you say the reason for increasing wages is Brexit....... the reason wages are increasing is the labour shortage* ....... so you are thereby implying the shortage of workers is due to Brexit. This particular discussion was triggered by your own argument that the reason for the UK being slower to recover from the pandemic is the shortage of workers , so the reason for the UK being slower to recover from the pandemic is, by your own argument.......Brexit. As a perpetual remoaner even I can accept that wages are rising due to the constraints in the labour market and that Brexit has played a part in that, and that the number of vacancies is in part due to Brexit . Of course I must then point out the many negatives that the constraints in the labour market have brought about..... slow economic recovery , contribution to inflation, 300,000 vacancies in health & social care etc etc..... I fail to see any acceptance in your posts that any negatives being experienced are in any way due to Brexit, and as such they cannot be considered balanced. * The automation you talk of may happen down the line but is not happening yet, indeed investment is poor )
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jan 28, 2023 6:52:43 GMT
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Post by foster on Jan 28, 2023 6:59:16 GMT
More importantly...why are you reading that rag.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jan 28, 2023 7:04:17 GMT
More importantly...why are you reading that rag. It was the top item trending on Google. The irony of it being in the Express was not lost on me!
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Post by smallthorner on Jan 28, 2023 20:26:11 GMT
I think you are missing my points: 1. "Payroll" is at record levels. It has continued to rise during 2022 despite all the talk of doom and gloom and recession by those opposed to Brexit. The latest report is that payroll employment rose to 29.9 million the highest ever in UK history: www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/january2023An increase of circa 900,000 since Brexit; not the unemployment project fear forecast. That is not to be confused with the reduced workforce because people choose not to return to work or high sickness levels. Nor is it true that the reduced workforce is because of a mass exodus of EU citizens as I have repeated explained. 2. The Nuffield report was incorrect on two counts: A. It presumes that the recruitment of doctors, nurses, etc. would continue at the same rate as pre 2015, when in fact it had already started to slow down. It takes no account of the changes in the rest of Europe with other countries short of medical staff, even including the countries that were previously "supplying" most of the people coming to the UK, where wages and economies have improved dramatically. Therefore the reports that immigration from Europe would continue at the same rate had there not been Brexit are a fallacy. B. The second Nuffield link you posted was covered in my long post on medical staff shortages. It is wrong to suggest that a barrier to staff coming has been erected. Medical staff are top of the list of wanted staff list - please revisit my post. All immigrants are treated the same. The rate of immigration is at record levels. Some are being given financial assistance, such as refunding of the Immigration Health Charge if they qualify. You do realise that we are more disliked now than pre-brexit. It means medical staff from the EU don’t want to come here like they used to. That is a direct result of brexit. But you of course know more about these topics than Nuffield and the BMA and the royal college of midwives! I'm no expert on the subject by any means.. But from my conversations with people within the NHS the consequences of Brexit have been absolutely negative, particularly in the aspect of boots on the ground.
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Post by smallthorner on Jan 28, 2023 20:26:54 GMT
Wanker of the highest order.
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Post by mrcoke on Jan 28, 2023 23:23:41 GMT
To answer your question: There is no question of whether there are labour shortages across the EU. In the EU more than 3% of all available jobs are vacant; more than ever since statistical records of this data started in 2006. This amounts to around six million jobs vacant across the EU. The EU’s unemployment rate dropped to 6.0% last July, the lowest figure since 2001. It follows there are far fewer people seeking work and far fewer likely to emigrate to the UK. In Germany more than half the country's companies are struggling to fill vacancies due to a lack of skilled workers, according to the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK). The proportion of companies facing difficulties hiring was at its highest ever level, the DIHK found in its survey of 22,000 companies, with 53% reporting shortages. The Euro area labour market has been severely hit by the coronavirus pandemic and associated containment measures, which is explained at length in the next link: www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2021/html/ecb.ebart202008_02~bc749d90e7.en.htmlIt should be noted how the fall in unemployment stated in 2013. Labour shortages in the EU began long before the Brexit referendum. Turning to the UK labour shortage, there have been reports explaining the issues causing the problem and spelling out the reasons. The UK workforce is 400,000 smaller since the pandemic, only Italy in the G7 has seen a larger percentage drop in the workforce. As we all know Italy was severely hit by the pandemic as was the UK. A major cause is the very high level of long term sickness in the UK. Research has shown that inactivity among people over the age of 50 was the most important contributor to the decrease in the size of the workforce, with numbers much higher than what might have been expected based on pre-pandemic trends. A report by the Office for National Statistics stated last year " The fall in employment seen since 2016 have been largely driven by UK nationals". It is wrong to claim that there was a mass exodus of EU workers following the referendum. In the 12 months to September 2020, the number of EU workers increased by 119,000 workers when compared with the same period in 2016. There was an exodus following the pandemic due to lockdown and many returning to there homelands. As I have explained at length in another post, for those from Eastern Europe job opportunities are now far greater, so why return to the UK? uksa.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/submission/office-for-national-statistics-written-evidence-to-the-business-energy-and-industrial-strategy-committees-inquiry-into-post-pandemic-growth-uk-labour-market/Regrettably there are those anti Brexit campaigners who wish to blame the problem of UK labour shortage on Brexit. A recent article by "UK In A Changing Europe" repeats the errors that were published by Nuffield Trust article on the shortage of doctors. The shortage of EU labour is based on the same fallacious premise that if Brexit/referendum had not resulted in the decision to leave the EU, that the inward net migration of EU citizens would have continued at the same pre-referendum rate. This is false because of firstly post pandemic effects, labour shortages in other EU countries such as Germany, and the improved economies and wages of East European states. There is no way with or without Brexit that migration to the UK would have continued at the same rate. There is no doubt that the UK lags behind some other countries on post-Covid employment recovery in terms of getting back to the same level of GDP in the last few weeks of 2019. This I contend is due to the long term under funding of the NHS, and the poor management of the pandemic at its outset resulting in the UK being far more seriously impacted than most developed countries. There are also structural reasons for the UK suffering more than other countries such as a large service industry sector, the high degree of commuting and international travel, etc. (In actual fact the rise in UK GDP since the depth of the pandemic in April 2020 has been larger than the rest of the G7 apart from the US. - but that is another issue.) The next link goes into more detail: obr.uk/box/the-impact-of-the-pandemic-on-labour-market-participation/I see the shortage of labour in the UK is a golden opportunity to address the major historical failing of the UK economy which is poor productivity. The UK has always lagged behind other leading nations in this respect. Employers have found it too easy to employ cheap labour due to higher levels of unemployment and a plentiful supply of cheap foreign labour, be it from the Commonwealth or the EU, rather than invest in automation, robotics, larger scale operations, etc. As a consequence British workers have been lower paid than many other developed countries. Thankfully even though we are only in the third year of Brexit, UK wage rates have started to improve at a higher rate than they did before Brexit. From the 2008 recession to the pandemic UK average weekly earnings growth was typically 2% to 4%. Thanks to Brexit, wages have been rising at circa 6%. tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/wage-growthA great number of UK companies are now realising they need to invest to improve productivity, which can only be good in the long term. Meanwhile the UK can continue to permit immigration from almost any country in the world on equal terms to fill jobs that need filling. My post above includes data from the following references: www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/labour-shortages-felt-all-over-europe/www.reuters.com/markets/europe/more-than-half-german-companies-report-labour-shortages-2023-01-12/www.eurofound.europa.eu/is/publications/report/2021/tackling-labour-shortages-in-eu-member-statesukandeu.ac.uk/the-impact-of-brexit-on-the-uk-labour-market-an-early-assessment/Thankyou for your reply. Hopefully you can understand the trouble I'm having : In this reply you say the reason for increasing wages is Brexit....... the reason wages are increasing is the labour shortage* ....... so you are thereby implying the shortage of workers is due to Brexit. This particular discussion was triggered by your own argument that the reason for the UK being slower to recover from the pandemic is the shortage of workers , so the reason for the UK being slower to recover from the pandemic is, by your own argument.......Brexit. As a perpetual remoaner even I can accept that wages are rising due to the constraints in the labour market and that Brexit has played a part in that, and that the number of vacancies is in part due to Brexit . Of course I must then point out the many negatives that the constraints in the labour market have brought about..... slow economic recovery , contribution to inflation, 300,000 vacancies in health & social care etc etc..... I fail to see any acceptance in your posts that any negatives being experienced are in any way due to Brexit, and as such they cannot be considered balanced. * The automation you talk of may happen down the line but is not happening yet, indeed investment is poor ) I'll try again to address your points. Firstly a report by the Office for National Statistics stated last year " The fall in employment seen since 2016 have been largely driven by UK nationals".
There are two factors driving this: 1. I quote: " Economic inactivity has increased by 522,000 persons in October to December 2021 compared with the period October to December 2019. Most of the increase was because of those aged 50 years and over, contributing 94.4% (493,000) to the overall change." 2. There has been a marked increase in sickness absence since the pandemic, which is higher than for more than a decade. Had all these people continued to work I am confident that the UK GDP would be higher. There is no way Brexit can be blamed for people choosing not to return to work or being ill. The UK has not been slower than other G7 economies to recover from the pandemic. In fact it has grown faster than the rest of the G7 since the depth of the recession in April 2020 apart from the US. The reason GDP has lagged in terms of not recovering to the same level as the last few weeks of 2019 is because the UK dip in GDP was far greater than other countries for all the reasons I stated in my last post above. Brexit has contributed to higher wages by stopping freedom of movement and EU citizens coming to the UK to take low paid jobs, thereby keeping them low paid. There is positive encouragement of workers from any part of the world to come to work in jobs that need filling most notably health and welfare. This does mean that some sectors such as hospitality and retail are suffering from a shortage of labour. But are we supposed to have sympathy for Lord Simon Wolfson, Tim Martin (Wetherspoon), Asda etc., who have made fortunes on the backs of the low paid? There are sectors we don't want to see suffer like farmers and food processors but that has been addressed by issuing temporary work visas for picking fruit and vegetables or flowers, poultry factory workers, etc. Despite all the scaremongering we still got our Christmas turkeys and Christmas trees and if crops are left to rot in the field it's more likely due to over production (encouraged by subsidies) that supermarkets don't want than lack of labour. I respect your view that the UK should have remained in the EU. I used to be an enthusiastic supporter of being in Europe. I used to have arguments with my father in the 70s. He was firmly in the camp of Benn, Shaw, Castle, etc. and totally opposed to giving up sovereignty. I took the view that it was worth conceding some sovereignty for the economic benefits of being in the EEC. My view gradually changed as Maastricht handed more power, and from 2000 there was a constantly increasing trade deficit with the EU. My posts may appear slanted to you but my main motive for posting in recent years (I never posted before the referendum) has been the efforts of part of the establishment to overturn the referendum result and the constant lies blaming Brexit for all the UK ills. I do accept that there are issues where Brexit has not helped, I always said there would be pain to go through leaving the EU after 40+ years of membership. But you mention inflation and shortage of health workers in your post and my response is there are EU countries with exactly the same problems and in some cases worse. I disagree with your last comment that investment is poor. I have covered investment in my quarterly reviews and request you read my comments on page 1508, section A6. I specifically address the constant claim in the anti Brexit media that there is lower investment since Brexit another fallacy that is constantly repeated. It may not be popular on these pages but HS2 is the biggest investment project in infrastructure in Europe. It is also only a few weeks since the government gave Sizewell C the go ahead. There is significant investment taking place in automation robotics etc. and in the case of agriculture the government have just launched a financial assistance scheme. www.farminguk.com/news/defra-unveils-12-5m-fund-for-farm-projects-focusing-on-automation_61745.htmlThere are reports of one in three businesses planning to invest in automation. www.roboticsandinnovation.co.uk/news/investments/a-third-of-uk-businesses-investing-in-automation-due-to-staffing-concerns-hsbc-finds.htmlnews.sky.com/story/could-you-be-replaced-by-a-robot-one-in-three-businesses-investing-in-automation-amid-staffing-shortages-12645397
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Post by wannabee on Jan 29, 2023 2:57:50 GMT
Thankyou for your reply. Hopefully you can understand the trouble I'm having : In this reply you say the reason for increasing wages is Brexit....... the reason wages are increasing is the labour shortage* ....... so you are thereby implying the shortage of workers is due to Brexit. This particular discussion was triggered by your own argument that the reason for the UK being slower to recover from the pandemic is the shortage of workers , so the reason for the UK being slower to recover from the pandemic is, by your own argument.......Brexit. As a perpetual remoaner even I can accept that wages are rising due to the constraints in the labour market and that Brexit has played a part in that, and that the number of vacancies is in part due to Brexit . Of course I must then point out the many negatives that the constraints in the labour market have brought about..... slow economic recovery , contribution to inflation, 300,000 vacancies in health & social care etc etc..... I fail to see any acceptance in your posts that any negatives being experienced are in any way due to Brexit, and as such they cannot be considered balanced. * The automation you talk of may happen down the line but is not happening yet, indeed investment is poor ) I'll try again to address your points. Firstly a report by the Office for National Statistics stated last year " The fall in employment seen since 2016 have been largely driven by UK nationals".
There are two factors driving this: 1. I quote: " Economic inactivity has increased by 522,000 persons in October to December 2021 compared with the period October to December 2019. Most of the increase was because of those aged 50 years and over, contributing 94.4% (493,000) to the overall change." 2. There has been a marked increase in sickness absence since the pandemic, which is higher than for more than a decade. Had all these people continued to work I am confident that the UK GDP would be higher. There is no way Brexit can be blamed for people choosing not to return to work or being ill. The UK has not been slower than other G7 economies to recover from the pandemic. In fact it has grown faster than the rest of the G7 since the depth of the recession in April 2020 apart from the US. The reason GDP has lagged in terms of not recovering to the same level as the last few weeks of 2019 is because the UK dip in GDP was far greater than other countries for all the reasons I stated in my last post above. If you can't trust your Government who can you trust They say UK is bottom of the pile and the only G7 Country not recovered to Pre-pandemic GDP Levels Are they lying to us again?
Compared to the pre-pandemic level, UK GDP in Q3 2022 was 0.8% lower. This compares with Eurozone GDP being 2.2% higher than its pre-pandemic level, while US GDP was 4.4% higher.
For 2021 as a whole, UK GDP growth was 7.6%. This was the highest in the G7. The UK had the largest decline in GDP among the G7 in 2020 (-11.0%) and its relatively strong performance in 2021 was to some degree a recovery from weakness in 2020.
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/
Brexit has contributed to higher wages by stopping freedom of movement and EU citizens coming to the UK to take low paid jobs, thereby keeping them low paid. There is positive encouragement of workers from any part of the world to come to work in jobs that need filling most notably health and welfare. This does mean that some sectors such as hospitality and retail are suffering from a shortage of labour. But are we supposed to have sympathy for Lord Simon Wolfson, Tim Martin (Wetherspoon), Asda etc., who have made fortunes on the backs of the low paid? There are sectors we don't want to see suffer like farmers and food processors but that has been addressed by issuing temporary work visas for picking fruit and vegetables or flowers, poultry factory workers, etc. Despite all the scaremongering we still got our Christmas turkeys and Christmas trees and if crops are left to rot in the field it's more likely due to over production (encouraged by subsidies) that supermarkets don't want than lack of labour. I respect your view that the UK should have remained in the EU. I used to be an enthusiastic supporter of being in Europe. I used to have arguments with my father in the 70s. He was firmly in the camp of Benn, Shaw, Castle, etc. and totally opposed to giving up sovereignty. I took the view that it was worth conceding some sovereignty for the economic benefits of being in the EEC. My view gradually changed as Maastricht handed more power, and from 2000 there was a constantly increasing trade deficit with the EU. My posts may appear slanted to you but my main motive for posting in recent years (I never posted before the referendum) has been the efforts of part of the establishment to overturn the referendum result and the constant lies blaming Brexit for all the UK ills. I do accept that there are issues where Brexit has not helped, I always said there would be pain to go through leaving the EU after 40+ years of membership. But you mention inflation and shortage of health workers in your post and my response is there are EU countries with exactly the same problems and in some cases worse. I disagree with your last comment that investment is poor. I have covered investment in my quarterly reviews and request you read my comments on page 1508, section A6. I specifically address the constant claim in the anti Brexit media that there is lower investment since Brexit another fallacy that is constantly repeated. It may not be popular on these pages but HS2 is the biggest investment project in infrastructure in Europe. It is also only a few weeks since the government gave Sizewell C the go ahead. It's great that the French EDF Company have been given the go ahead to construct the Size C Plant which they will own in a 50/50 partnership
You do realise that the enormous cost of HS2 is because UK Construction costs are about 6 times greater than in Europe although i think think its good that UK is upgrading its infrastructure to a standard comparable throughout Europe
Here the boss of Spanish Company Ferrovial one of the main Contractors on HS2 explains why costs are so ridiculously high compared to Europe Ferrovial boss on why high speed rail costs more in UK 12 JUL, 2022 BY ROB HORGAN
Ferrovial's UK construction director has revealed why he thinks constructing high speed railways costs so much more in the UK than it does on mainland Europe.
The cost of building the entire High Speed 2 (HS2) network is estimated to be in the region of £100bn. The funding envelope for phase one alone is up to £44.6bn. It means building HS2 will cost around £200M per kilometre.
By way of comparison, a government assessment of 20 European high speed railway networks (High speed rail international benchmarking study) concludes that “that high speed rail lines can be delivered under certain circumstances at an average cost of £32M per km”. A European Court of Auditors benchmarking report from 2018 puts the average cost even lower on the continent at £25M per kilometre.
Speaking at NCE’s Future of Rail conference, Ricardo Ferreras said that the process of obtaining permits and conducting environmental studies in the UK was largely behind the increased cost of building high speed railways in the UK.
“It’s true the cost per kilometre is way higher in the UK than it is in Europe, for example in France or Spain,” Ferreras said.
“It is about the number of resources that we use here in the UK that are linked with planning; the environmental matters, the stakeholder engagement, all the consents that are needed.
“As an example in Spain the government will get all consents, and all environmental permits, and then when they award the contract to a contractor, the contractor can just focus on delivering the project.
“So, here we do it differently. I am not saying it is worse but it is different and it takes much more man power and obviously that increases the cost of the project.”
He added: “I think the consenting regime here for these big projects, and getting everything while you are developing the design, creates a lot of issues and that sort of slows down the process. A lot of people, a lot more time and that of course means more cost.
“That said the way things are planned here and delivered is absolutely phenomenal so I’m not saying it is worse but there could be a balance.”
Ferrovial has a long history of delivering high speed rail projects. In total, the Spanish firm has built 487km of high speed rail around the world, as well as 80 high speed rail viaducts and six high speed rail stations.
www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/ferrovial-boss-on-why-high-speed-rail-costs-more-in-uk-12-07-2022/
Here is a fact check from 2017 on why HS2 which started in 2012 is costing so much compared to TGV. Of course HS2 costs have doubled since then
www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-qa-how-does-hs2-compare-to-other-bullet-trains
Why you would want to boast about such inefficiency and waste of Tax Payers money I don't know
There is significant investment taking place in automation robotics etc. and in the case of agriculture the government have just launched a financial assistance scheme. www.farminguk.com/news/defra-unveils-12-5m-fund-for-farm-projects-focusing-on-automation_61745.htmlThere are reports of one in three businesses planning to invest in automation. www.roboticsandinnovation.co.uk/news/investments/a-third-of-uk-businesses-investing-in-automation-due-to-staffing-concerns-hsbc-finds.htmlnews.sky.com/story/could-you-be-replaced-by-a-robot-one-in-three-businesses-investing-in-automation-amid-staffing-shortages-12645397You are simply deluded if you think UK figures anywhere in the Automation League South Korea and Singapore are way out ahead with 12 European Countries included in the top 21. UK is not even listed perhaps its 22nd
www.automation-fair.com/2022/12/05/these-are-the-most-automated-countries-in-the-world/
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Post by foghornsgleghorn on Jan 29, 2023 10:59:14 GMT
Thankyou for your reply. Hopefully you can understand the trouble I'm having : In this reply you say the reason for increasing wages is Brexit....... the reason wages are increasing is the labour shortage* ....... so you are thereby implying the shortage of workers is due to Brexit. This particular discussion was triggered by your own argument that the reason for the UK being slower to recover from the pandemic is the shortage of workers , so the reason for the UK being slower to recover from the pandemic is, by your own argument.......Brexit. As a perpetual remoaner even I can accept that wages are rising due to the constraints in the labour market and that Brexit has played a part in that, and that the number of vacancies is in part due to Brexit . Of course I must then point out the many negatives that the constraints in the labour market have brought about..... slow economic recovery , contribution to inflation, 300,000 vacancies in health & social care etc etc..... I fail to see any acceptance in your posts that any negatives being experienced are in any way due to Brexit, and as such they cannot be considered balanced. * The automation you talk of may happen down the line but is not happening yet, indeed investment is poor ) I'll try again to address your points. Firstly a report by the Office for National Statistics stated last year " The fall in employment seen since 2016 have been largely driven by UK nationals".
There are two factors driving this: 1. I quote: " Economic inactivity has increased by 522,000 persons in October to December 2021 compared with the period October to December 2019. Most of the increase was because of those aged 50 years and over, contributing 94.4% (493,000) to the overall change." 2. There has been a marked increase in sickness absence since the pandemic, which is higher than for more than a decade. Had all these people continued to work I am confident that the UK GDP would be higher. There is no way Brexit can be blamed for people choosing not to return to work or being ill. The UK has not been slower than other G7 economies to recover from the pandemic. In fact it has grown faster than the rest of the G7 since the depth of the recession in April 2020 apart from the US. The reason GDP has lagged in terms of not recovering to the same level as the last few weeks of 2019 is because the UK dip in GDP was far greater than other countries for all the reasons I stated in my last post above. Brexit has contributed to higher wages by stopping freedom of movement and EU citizens coming to the UK to take low paid jobs, thereby keeping them low paid. There is positive encouragement of workers from any part of the world to come to work in jobs that need filling most notably health and welfare. This does mean that some sectors such as hospitality and retail are suffering from a shortage of labour. But are we supposed to have sympathy for Lord Simon Wolfson, Tim Martin (Wetherspoon), Asda etc., who have made fortunes on the backs of the low paid? There are sectors we don't want to see suffer like farmers and food processors but that has been addressed by issuing temporary work visas for picking fruit and vegetables or flowers, poultry factory workers, etc. Despite all the scaremongering we still got our Christmas turkeys and Christmas trees and if crops are left to rot in the field it's more likely due to over production (encouraged by subsidies) that supermarkets don't want than lack of labour. I respect your view that the UK should have remained in the EU. I used to be an enthusiastic supporter of being in Europe. I used to have arguments with my father in the 70s. He was firmly in the camp of Benn, Shaw, Castle, etc. and totally opposed to giving up sovereignty. I took the view that it was worth conceding some sovereignty for the economic benefits of being in the EEC. My view gradually changed as Maastricht handed more power, and from 2000 there was a constantly increasing trade deficit with the EU. My posts may appear slanted to you but my main motive for posting in recent years (I never posted before the referendum) has been the efforts of part of the establishment to overturn the referendum result and the constant lies blaming Brexit for all the UK ills. I do accept that there are issues where Brexit has not helped, I always said there would be pain to go through leaving the EU after 40+ years of membership. But you mention inflation and shortage of health workers in your post and my response is there are EU countries with exactly the same problems and in some cases worse. I disagree with your last comment that investment is poor. I have covered investment in my quarterly reviews and request you read my comments on page 1508, section A6. I specifically address the constant claim in the anti Brexit media that there is lower investment since Brexit another fallacy that is constantly repeated. It may not be popular on these pages but HS2 is the biggest investment project in infrastructure in Europe. It is also only a few weeks since the government gave Sizewell C the go ahead. There is significant investment taking place in automation robotics etc. and in the case of agriculture the government have just launched a financial assistance scheme. www.farminguk.com/news/defra-unveils-12-5m-fund-for-farm-projects-focusing-on-automation_61745.htmlThere are reports of one in three businesses planning to invest in automation. www.roboticsandinnovation.co.uk/news/investments/a-third-of-uk-businesses-investing-in-automation-due-to-staffing-concerns-hsbc-finds.htmlnews.sky.com/story/could-you-be-replaced-by-a-robot-one-in-three-businesses-investing-in-automation-amid-staffing-shortages-12645397"This does mean that some sectors such as hospitality and retail are suffering from a shortage of labour." So you have proven my point- when you said that the slower recovery from the pandemic is not due to Brexit you were incorrect. It's nothing to do with having sympathy for business owners. You continue to try and portray the health & social care sector as distinct from the UK labour market as a whole. The fact that there are 300,000 vacancies shows that the recruitment from the rest of the world is not adequate. People are leaving the health sector to work in those other sector jobs now getting higher wages because of the shortage of labour that you yourself say is due to Brexit. You have previously said that the UK cannot afford to give health workers the pay rises they want . So, because of Brexit people are leaving the NHS and care sectors. Because of that people are dying on trolleys. As regards investment I am continually hearing about lower investment since the referendum. The other morning on the radio I was surprised during a discussion in the business news that the industry expert brought this up unprompted despite the discussion being about something else. It's everywhere, not just in the words of anti-Brexiters. There is little point continuing this discussion , it's gone round long enough but I'm afraid that for all your polite responses they are s unaccepting of the fact that Brexit is at present making most people poorer , making healthcare worse and seeing the UK being left behind. Brexit has, in the short-term, been an abject failure. If it is going to be anything better going forwards will first require people to recognise those failings.
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Post by skemstokie on Jan 29, 2023 13:31:43 GMT
Thankyou for your reply. Hopefully you can understand the trouble I'm having : In this reply you say the reason for increasing wages is Brexit....... the reason wages are increasing is the labour shortage* ....... so you are thereby implying the shortage of workers is due to Brexit. This particular discussion was triggered by your own argument that the reason for the UK being slower to recover from the pandemic is the shortage of workers , so the reason for the UK being slower to recover from the pandemic is, by your own argument.......Brexit. As a perpetual remoaner even I can accept that wages are rising due to the constraints in the labour market and that Brexit has played a part in that, and that the number of vacancies is in part due to Brexit . Of course I must then point out the many negatives that the constraints in the labour market have brought about..... slow economic recovery , contribution to inflation, 300,000 vacancies in health & social care etc etc..... I fail to see any acceptance in your posts that any negatives being experienced are in any way due to Brexit, and as such they cannot be considered balanced. * The automation you talk of may happen down the line but is not happening yet, indeed investment is poor ) I'll try again to address your points. Firstly a report by the Office for National Statistics stated last year " The fall in employment seen since 2016 have been largely driven by UK nationals".
There are two factors driving this: 1. I quote: " Economic inactivity has increased by 522,000 persons in October to December 2021 compared with the period October to December 2019. Most of the increase was because of those aged 50 years and over, contributing 94.4% (493,000) to the overall change." 2. There has been a marked increase in sickness absence since the pandemic, which is higher than for more than a decade. Had all these people continued to work I am confident that the UK GDP would be higher. There is no way Brexit can be blamed for people choosing not to return to work or being ill. The UK has not been slower than other G7 economies to recover from the pandemic. In fact it has grown faster than the rest of the G7 since the depth of the recession in April 2020 apart from the US. The reason GDP has lagged in terms of not recovering to the same level as the last few weeks of 2019 is because the UK dip in GDP was far greater than other countries for all the reasons I stated in my last post above. Brexit has contributed to higher wages by stopping freedom of movement and EU citizens coming to the UK to take low paid jobs, thereby keeping them low paid. There is positive encouragement of workers from any part of the world to come to work in jobs that need filling most notably health and welfare. This does mean that some sectors such as hospitality and retail are suffering from a shortage of labour. But are we supposed to have sympathy for Lord Simon Wolfson, Tim Martin (Wetherspoon), Asda etc., who have made fortunes on the backs of the low paid? There are sectors we don't want to see suffer like farmers and food processors but that has been addressed by issuing temporary work visas for picking fruit and vegetables or flowers, poultry factory workers, etc. Despite all the scaremongering we still got our Christmas turkeys and Christmas trees and if crops are left to rot in the field it's more likely due to over production (encouraged by subsidies) that supermarkets don't want than lack of labour. I respect your view that the UK should have remained in the EU. I used to be an enthusiastic supporter of being in Europe. I used to have arguments with my father in the 70s. He was firmly in the camp of Benn, Shaw, Castle, etc. and totally opposed to giving up sovereignty. I took the view that it was worth conceding some sovereignty for the economic benefits of being in the EEC. My view gradually changed as Maastricht handed more power, and from 2000 there was a constantly increasing trade deficit with the EU. My posts may appear slanted to you but my main motive for posting in recent years (I never posted before the referendum) has been the efforts of part of the establishment to overturn the referendum result and the constant lies blaming Brexit for all the UK ills. I do accept that there are issues where Brexit has not helped, I always said there would be pain to go through leaving the EU after 40+ years of membership. But you mention inflation and shortage of health workers in your post and my response is there are EU countries with exactly the same problems and in some cases worse. I disagree with your last comment that investment is poor. I have covered investment in my quarterly reviews and request you read my comments on page 1508, section A6. I specifically address the constant claim in the anti Brexit media that there is lower investment since Brexit another fallacy that is constantly repeated. It may not be popular on these pages but HS2 is the biggest investment project in infrastructure in Europe. It is also only a few weeks since the government gave Sizewell C the go ahead. There is significant investment taking place in automation robotics etc. and in the case of agriculture the government have just launched a financial assistance scheme. www.farminguk.com/news/defra-unveils-12-5m-fund-for-farm-projects-focusing-on-automation_61745.htmlThere are reports of one in three businesses planning to invest in automation. www.roboticsandinnovation.co.uk/news/investments/a-third-of-uk-businesses-investing-in-automation-due-to-staffing-concerns-hsbc-finds.htmlnews.sky.com/story/could-you-be-replaced-by-a-robot-one-in-three-businesses-investing-in-automation-amid-staffing-shortages-12645397 I wish someone would just list me the benifits of Brexit.
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Post by oggyoggy on Jan 29, 2023 17:53:32 GMT
I'll try again to address your points. Firstly a report by the Office for National Statistics stated last year " The fall in employment seen since 2016 have been largely driven by UK nationals".
There are two factors driving this: 1. I quote: " Economic inactivity has increased by 522,000 persons in October to December 2021 compared with the period October to December 2019. Most of the increase was because of those aged 50 years and over, contributing 94.4% (493,000) to the overall change." 2. There has been a marked increase in sickness absence since the pandemic, which is higher than for more than a decade. Had all these people continued to work I am confident that the UK GDP would be higher. There is no way Brexit can be blamed for people choosing not to return to work or being ill. The UK has not been slower than other G7 economies to recover from the pandemic. In fact it has grown faster than the rest of the G7 since the depth of the recession in April 2020 apart from the US. The reason GDP has lagged in terms of not recovering to the same level as the last few weeks of 2019 is because the UK dip in GDP was far greater than other countries for all the reasons I stated in my last post above. Brexit has contributed to higher wages by stopping freedom of movement and EU citizens coming to the UK to take low paid jobs, thereby keeping them low paid. There is positive encouragement of workers from any part of the world to come to work in jobs that need filling most notably health and welfare. This does mean that some sectors such as hospitality and retail are suffering from a shortage of labour. But are we supposed to have sympathy for Lord Simon Wolfson, Tim Martin (Wetherspoon), Asda etc., who have made fortunes on the backs of the low paid? There are sectors we don't want to see suffer like farmers and food processors but that has been addressed by issuing temporary work visas for picking fruit and vegetables or flowers, poultry factory workers, etc. Despite all the scaremongering we still got our Christmas turkeys and Christmas trees and if crops are left to rot in the field it's more likely due to over production (encouraged by subsidies) that supermarkets don't want than lack of labour. I respect your view that the UK should have remained in the EU. I used to be an enthusiastic supporter of being in Europe. I used to have arguments with my father in the 70s. He was firmly in the camp of Benn, Shaw, Castle, etc. and totally opposed to giving up sovereignty. I took the view that it was worth conceding some sovereignty for the economic benefits of being in the EEC. My view gradually changed as Maastricht handed more power, and from 2000 there was a constantly increasing trade deficit with the EU. My posts may appear slanted to you but my main motive for posting in recent years (I never posted before the referendum) has been the efforts of part of the establishment to overturn the referendum result and the constant lies blaming Brexit for all the UK ills. I do accept that there are issues where Brexit has not helped, I always said there would be pain to go through leaving the EU after 40+ years of membership. But you mention inflation and shortage of health workers in your post and my response is there are EU countries with exactly the same problems and in some cases worse. I disagree with your last comment that investment is poor. I have covered investment in my quarterly reviews and request you read my comments on page 1508, section A6. I specifically address the constant claim in the anti Brexit media that there is lower investment since Brexit another fallacy that is constantly repeated. It may not be popular on these pages but HS2 is the biggest investment project in infrastructure in Europe. It is also only a few weeks since the government gave Sizewell C the go ahead. There is significant investment taking place in automation robotics etc. and in the case of agriculture the government have just launched a financial assistance scheme. www.farminguk.com/news/defra-unveils-12-5m-fund-for-farm-projects-focusing-on-automation_61745.htmlThere are reports of one in three businesses planning to invest in automation. www.roboticsandinnovation.co.uk/news/investments/a-third-of-uk-businesses-investing-in-automation-due-to-staffing-concerns-hsbc-finds.htmlnews.sky.com/story/could-you-be-replaced-by-a-robot-one-in-three-businesses-investing-in-automation-amid-staffing-shortages-12645397 I wish someone would just list me the benifits of Brexit. I will do it for you ……..
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Post by mrcoke on Jan 29, 2023 20:39:42 GMT
I'll try again to address your points. Firstly a report by the Office for National Statistics stated last year " The fall in employment seen since 2016 have been largely driven by UK nationals".
There are two factors driving this: 1. I quote: " Economic inactivity has increased by 522,000 persons in October to December 2021 compared with the period October to December 2019. Most of the increase was because of those aged 50 years and over, contributing 94.4% (493,000) to the overall change." 2. There has been a marked increase in sickness absence since the pandemic, which is higher than for more than a decade. Had all these people continued to work I am confident that the UK GDP would be higher. There is no way Brexit can be blamed for people choosing not to return to work or being ill. The UK has not been slower than other G7 economies to recover from the pandemic. In fact it has grown faster than the rest of the G7 since the depth of the recession in April 2020 apart from the US. The reason GDP has lagged in terms of not recovering to the same level as the last few weeks of 2019 is because the UK dip in GDP was far greater than other countries for all the reasons I stated in my last post above. If you can't trust your Government who can you trust They say UK is bottom of the pile and the only G7 Country not recovered to Pre-pandemic GDP Levels Are they lying to us again?
Compared to the pre-pandemic level, UK GDP in Q3 2022 was 0.8% lower. This compares with Eurozone GDP being 2.2% higher than its pre-pandemic level, while US GDP was 4.4% higher.
For 2021 as a whole, UK GDP growth was 7.6%. This was the highest in the G7. The UK had the largest decline in GDP among the G7 in 2020 (-11.0%) and its relatively strong performance in 2021 was to some degree a recovery from weakness in 2020.
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/
Brexit has contributed to higher wages by stopping freedom of movement and EU citizens coming to the UK to take low paid jobs, thereby keeping them low paid. There is positive encouragement of workers from any part of the world to come to work in jobs that need filling most notably health and welfare. This does mean that some sectors such as hospitality and retail are suffering from a shortage of labour. But are we supposed to have sympathy for Lord Simon Wolfson, Tim Martin (Wetherspoon), Asda etc., who have made fortunes on the backs of the low paid? There are sectors we don't want to see suffer like farmers and food processors but that has been addressed by issuing temporary work visas for picking fruit and vegetables or flowers, poultry factory workers, etc. Despite all the scaremongering we still got our Christmas turkeys and Christmas trees and if crops are left to rot in the field it's more likely due to over production (encouraged by subsidies) that supermarkets don't want than lack of labour. I respect your view that the UK should have remained in the EU. I used to be an enthusiastic supporter of being in Europe. I used to have arguments with my father in the 70s. He was firmly in the camp of Benn, Shaw, Castle, etc. and totally opposed to giving up sovereignty. I took the view that it was worth conceding some sovereignty for the economic benefits of being in the EEC. My view gradually changed as Maastricht handed more power, and from 2000 there was a constantly increasing trade deficit with the EU. My posts may appear slanted to you but my main motive for posting in recent years (I never posted before the referendum) has been the efforts of part of the establishment to overturn the referendum result and the constant lies blaming Brexit for all the UK ills. I do accept that there are issues where Brexit has not helped, I always said there would be pain to go through leaving the EU after 40+ years of membership. But you mention inflation and shortage of health workers in your post and my response is there are EU countries with exactly the same problems and in some cases worse. I disagree with your last comment that investment is poor. I have covered investment in my quarterly reviews and request you read my comments on page 1508, section A6. I specifically address the constant claim in the anti Brexit media that there is lower investment since Brexit another fallacy that is constantly repeated. It may not be popular on these pages but HS2 is the biggest investment project in infrastructure in Europe. It is also only a few weeks since the government gave Sizewell C the go ahead. It's great that the French EDF Company have been given the go ahead to construct the Size C Plant which they will own in a 50/50 partnership
You do realise that the enormous cost of HS2 is because UK Construction costs are about 6 times greater than in Europe although i think think its good that UK is upgrading its infrastructure to a standard comparable throughout Europe
Here the boss of Spanish Company Ferrovial one of the main Contractors on HS2 explains why costs are so ridiculously high compared to Europe Ferrovial boss on why high speed rail costs more in UK 12 JUL, 2022 BY ROB HORGAN
Ferrovial's UK construction director has revealed why he thinks constructing high speed railways costs so much more in the UK than it does on mainland Europe.
The cost of building the entire High Speed 2 (HS2) network is estimated to be in the region of £100bn. The funding envelope for phase one alone is up to £44.6bn. It means building HS2 will cost around £200M per kilometre.
By way of comparison, a government assessment of 20 European high speed railway networks (High speed rail international benchmarking study) concludes that “that high speed rail lines can be delivered under certain circumstances at an average cost of £32M per km”. A European Court of Auditors benchmarking report from 2018 puts the average cost even lower on the continent at £25M per kilometre.
Speaking at NCE’s Future of Rail conference, Ricardo Ferreras said that the process of obtaining permits and conducting environmental studies in the UK was largely behind the increased cost of building high speed railways in the UK.
“It’s true the cost per kilometre is way higher in the UK than it is in Europe, for example in France or Spain,” Ferreras said.
“It is about the number of resources that we use here in the UK that are linked with planning; the environmental matters, the stakeholder engagement, all the consents that are needed.
“As an example in Spain the government will get all consents, and all environmental permits, and then when they award the contract to a contractor, the contractor can just focus on delivering the project.
“So, here we do it differently. I am not saying it is worse but it is different and it takes much more man power and obviously that increases the cost of the project.”
He added: “I think the consenting regime here for these big projects, and getting everything while you are developing the design, creates a lot of issues and that sort of slows down the process. A lot of people, a lot more time and that of course means more cost.
“That said the way things are planned here and delivered is absolutely phenomenal so I’m not saying it is worse but there could be a balance.”
Ferrovial has a long history of delivering high speed rail projects. In total, the Spanish firm has built 487km of high speed rail around the world, as well as 80 high speed rail viaducts and six high speed rail stations.
www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/ferrovial-boss-on-why-high-speed-rail-costs-more-in-uk-12-07-2022/
Here is a fact check from 2017 on why HS2 which started in 2012 is costing so much compared to TGV. Of course HS2 costs have doubled since then
www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-qa-how-does-hs2-compare-to-other-bullet-trains
Why you would want to boast about such inefficiency and waste of Tax Payers money I don't know
There is significant investment taking place in automation robotics etc. and in the case of agriculture the government have just launched a financial assistance scheme. www.farminguk.com/news/defra-unveils-12-5m-fund-for-farm-projects-focusing-on-automation_61745.htmlThere are reports of one in three businesses planning to invest in automation. www.roboticsandinnovation.co.uk/news/investments/a-third-of-uk-businesses-investing-in-automation-due-to-staffing-concerns-hsbc-finds.htmlnews.sky.com/story/could-you-be-replaced-by-a-robot-one-in-three-businesses-investing-in-automation-amid-staffing-shortages-12645397You are simply deluded if you think UK figures anywhere in the Automation League South Korea and Singapore are way out ahead with 12 European Countries included in the top 21. UK is not even listed perhaps its 22nd
www.automation-fair.com/2022/12/05/these-are-the-most-automated-countries-in-the-world/
In response to you first comment regarding UK GDP, I did state in my post that " GDP has lagged in terms of not recovering to the same level as the last few weeks of 2019 ." Maybe you missed that comment? My comments on how much/fast the UK GDP has improved was in relation to the large recovery from the depth of the recession, which your quote from the Commons library confirms. Regarding your comments on HS2 and Sizewell C, I was simply pointing out the the UK investment is far from poor but substantial, which your comments confirm. The merits are another matter. Finally regarding my comments on automation, I was merely pointing out that there is now at long last significant interest by British business in automation. I did state in my post on 26th January (11.29pm) "the major historical failing of the UK economy which is poor productivity. " Maybe you missed that comment? I do recognise that the UK has been very slow to automate etc. because of British business's dependence on cheap foreign labour. I expressed the view that now labour is scarce and more expensive I am hopeful there will now be increased investment in the UK to match our peers.
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Post by wannabee on Jan 30, 2023 0:14:05 GMT
1A. In response to you first comment regarding UK GDP, I did state in my post that " GDP has lagged in terms of not recovering to the same level as the last few weeks of 2019 ." Maybe you missed that comment? 1B My comments on how much/fast the UK GDP has improved was in relation to the large recovery from the depth of the recession, which your quote from the Commons library confirms. 2. Regarding your comments on HS2 and Sizewell C, I was simply pointing out the the UK investment is far from poor but substantial, which your comments confirm. The merits are another matter. 3. Finally regarding my comments on automation, I was merely pointing out that there is now at long last significant interest by British business in automation. I did state in my post on 26th January (11.29pm) "the major historical failing of the UK economy which is poor productivity. " Maybe you missed that comment? I do recognise that the UK has been very slow to automate etc. because of British business's dependence on cheap foreign labour. I expressed the view that now labour is scarce and more expensive I am hopeful there will now be increased investment in the UK to match our peers. 1A and 1B I consider them the same point Your original post attempted to move the Goal Posts at to when comparisons should begin from 31st December 2019 to some arbitrary date in April 2020 when the first Lockdown had already started.in UK No-one not even Government Statistics recognise what you are saying or report on it You then go on to make this extraordinary comment The UK has not been slower than other G7 economies to recover from the pandemic. In fact it has grown faster than the rest of the G7 since the depth of the recession in April 2020 apart from the US.
This is simply not true It is Universally recognised, even in UK Government Statistics that of the G7 Countries UK is the only one yet to recover GDP to Pre-pandemic Levels. All these Countries Economies were affected by Covid, only one went through Brexit 2. I'm going from memory so I may not have the exact figures The original Budget for the TOTAL HS2 Project was under £40B To complete Phase 1 London to Birmingham is now projected to cost £100+B The connection between Manchester and Leeds has been dropped The Terminus in London may now be in West London not Heuston Station If true this would be a True Life Ealing Comedy Phase 2 Birmingham to Manchester is now projected to be completed somewhere around 2040 I will leave it up to those that know better if the project itself is worthwhile, I think you have your doubts. It is the constant dithering and flaffing about which makes the equivalent infrastructure construction 6 times more expensive in UK versus Europe explained in detail by the Spanish CEO of one of the main Contractors in my last post Many in the North say that an East West High Speed Rail link would be more beneficial. In Manchester 87% of Rail Journeys are Local If this Project ever gets finished it will be equivalent to what was put in place in France, Germany and Spain decades ago at a fraction of the cost in Real Terms It is very easy to make the claim that HS2 is the biggest £ infrastructure in Europe when so much additional unnessasary cost has been incurred 5 of the 6 (French owned) UK Neuclear Plants are due to be shut down in 2028. Hinkley C (40 years in the planning) 2/3 French 1/3 Chinese owned is due to come on stream 10 years late and £3B over budget. It will become the most expensive Neuclear Plant to be constructed in the World. Sizewell C which is supposed to be a replica of Hinkley C is expected to take 9 to 12 years to construct so you can do your own calculations of when it may come on line. Present stat date is 2024, sure. Much was made in the press of the UK Government buying out the Chinese Investors and becoming 50/50 partners with the French Government. What was less publicised was the Government committed only £700M to match the French Governments Investment (via EDF) for the seed Capital to move the Project along. Who eventually owns Sizewell C is very much open to question and it may take the Government to enter another disasterous Fixed Price Contract like Hinckley C to attract investors 3. Your original comment certainly implied that the UK was heavily invested in Automation when the reality couldn't be further from the truth Hence terrible Productivity Levels in UK If this was not your intent, fair enough
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Post by mrcoke on Jan 30, 2023 10:13:07 GMT
1A. In response to you first comment regarding UK GDP, I did state in my post that " GDP has lagged in terms of not recovering to the same level as the last few weeks of 2019 ." Maybe you missed that comment? 1B My comments on how much/fast the UK GDP has improved was in relation to the large recovery from the depth of the recession, which your quote from the Commons library confirms. 2. Regarding your comments on HS2 and Sizewell C, I was simply pointing out the the UK investment is far from poor but substantial, which your comments confirm. The merits are another matter. 3. Finally regarding my comments on automation, I was merely pointing out that there is now at long last significant interest by British business in automation. I did state in my post on 26th January (11.29pm) "the major historical failing of the UK economy which is poor productivity. " Maybe you missed that comment? I do recognise that the UK has been very slow to automate etc. because of British business's dependence on cheap foreign labour. I expressed the view that now labour is scarce and more expensive I am hopeful there will now be increased investment in the UK to match our peers. 1A and 1B I consider them the same point Your original post attempted to move the Goal Posts at to when comparisons should begin from 31st December 2019 to some arbitrary date in April 2020 when the first Lockdown had already started.in UK No-one not even Government Statistics recognise what you are saying or report on it You then go on to make this extraordinary comment The UK has not been slower than other G7 economies to recover from the pandemic. In fact it has grown faster than the rest of the G7 since the depth of the recession in April 2020 apart from the US.
This is simply not true It is Universally recognised, even in UK Government Statistics that of the G7 Countries UK is the only one yet to recover GDP to Pre-pandemic Levels. All these Countries Economies were affected by Covid, only one went through Brexit 2. I'm going from memory so I may not have the exact figures The original Budget for the TOTAL HS2 Project was under £40B To complete Phase 1 London to Birmingham is now projected to cost £100+B The connection between Manchester and Leeds has been dropped The Terminus in London may now be in West London not Heuston Station If true this would be a True Life Ealing Comedy Phase 2 Birmingham to Manchester is now projected to be completed somewhere around 2040 I will leave it up to those that know better if the project itself is worthwhile, I think you have your doubts. It is the constant dithering and flaffing about which makes the equivalent infrastructure construction 6 times more expensive in UK versus Europe explained in detail by the Spanish CEO of one of the main Contractors in my last post Many in the North say that an East West High Speed Rail link would be more beneficial. In Manchester 87% of Rail Journeys are Local If this Project ever gets finished it will be equivalent to what was put in place in France, Germany and Spain decades ago at a fraction of the cost in Real Terms It is very easy to make the claim that HS2 is the biggest £ infrastructure in Europe when so much additional unnessasary cost has been incurred 5 of the 6 (French owned) UK Neuclear Plants are due to be shut down in 2028. Hinkley C (40 years in the planning) 2/3 French 1/3 Chinese owned is due to come on stream 10 years late and £3B over budget. It will become the most expensive Neuclear Plant to be constructed in the World. Sizewell C which is supposed to be a replica of Hinkley C is expected to take 9 to 12 years to construct so you can do your own calculations of when it may come on line. Present stat date is 2024, sure. Much was made in the press of the UK Government buying out the Chinese Investors and becoming 50/50 partners with the French Government. What was less publicised was the Government committed only £700M to match the French Governments Investment (via EDF) for the seed Capital to move the Project along. Who eventually owns Sizewell C is very much open to question and it may take the Government to enter another disasterous Fixed Price Contract like Hinckley C to attract investors 3. Your original comment certainly implied that the UK was heavily invested in Automation when the reality couldn't be further from the truth Hence terrible Productivity Levels in UK If this was not your intent, fair enough Thanks for your response, particularly item 3. Regarding UK investment on HS2 and nuclear power I think you are confirming my original point which was investment is not " poor" but actually huge. As for the GDP debate how well a country has done relative to others depends on which point you choose to measure from. It is the case that those opposed to Brexit choose to measure from late 2019, which suits their argument as at that time UK exports were booming at record levels. I think we can pick up the debate when I post my next review for the 2022 year end after most of the figures are published.
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Post by oggyoggy on Jan 30, 2023 11:32:38 GMT
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Post by wannabee on Jan 30, 2023 12:49:15 GMT
Mr Coke said Thanks for your response, particularly item 3. Regarding UK investment on HS2 and nuclear power I think you are confirming my original point which was investment is not "poor" but actually huge. Mr Coke, if you want to live in a vacuum and ignore reality that's entirely up to you. The huge Investment you talk about as I have demonstrated doesn't need to be as huge if it were planned and executed correctly like Peer Countries who have constructed similar infrastructure decades ago at a fraction of the cost Even then we manage to mess it up like in the case of HS2 now mooted to terminate in West London and the Manchester to Leeds/Bradford link dropped entirely The current debate is whether Phase 2 Birmingham to Manchester will even go ahead
"Proposed" Investment is just that
The same applies to Sizewell C it's been "Proposed" for more than 40 yearsAs for the GDP debate how well a country has done relative to others depends on which point you choose to measure from. It is the case that those opposed to Brexit choose to measure from late 2019, which suits their argument as at that time UK exports were booming at record levels.
I think we can pick up the debate when I post my next review for the 2022 year end after most of the figures are published. Why would you choose to lie when you know full well this isn't true? In the 4th Quarter 2019 GDP was exactly flat at 0.0% the 3rd Quarter 2019 was similar. Jan/Feb 2020 were flat then March 2020 saw a major fall as UK shut down and the effects from China shutting down in January were being felt in UK and all over the World
There is no need to invent new Financial or Historical Facts
www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/december2019
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Post by wannabee on Jan 30, 2023 13:36:55 GMT
So the conclusion is that when old geezers like me pop off The Nation will regain its collective Sanity. I can live with that or not as the case maybe I think it also shows Starmers softly softly approach is the correct one as people don't generally like to admit they were wrong, although progressively more and more are."You catch more flies with Honey than Vinegar"
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Post by cvillestokie on Jan 30, 2023 13:57:15 GMT
So the conclusion is that when old geezers like me pop off The Nation will regain its collective Sanity. I can live with that or not as the case maybe I think it also shows Starmers softly softly approach is the correct one as people don't generally like to admit they were wrong, although progressively more and more are."You catch more flies with Honey than Vinegar" We will never get a deal like we had though, so rejoining will come at a different price to what we had. Personally, I think that Brexit cost the UK a lot. It wasn’t just the decision itself, it was the fact that for x amount (4?) years, UK politicians did next to NOTHING else but mess around with the fallout. The country just stood still on so many fronts. To make such a decision on a simple majority was naive. Scotland’s 1979 call for devolution had a simple majority to exit the UK but was rejected because of poor turnout. For a history altering event, I’m shocked that they didn’t put in a point that something like 55-60% of votes needed to be exit.
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Post by wannabee on Jan 30, 2023 16:19:32 GMT
So the conclusion is that when old geezers like me pop off The Nation will regain its collective Sanity. I can live with that or not as the case maybe I think it also shows Starmers softly softly approach is the correct one as people don't generally like to admit they were wrong, although progressively more and more are."You catch more flies with Honey than Vinegar" We will never get a deal like we had though, so rejoining will come at a different price to what we had. Personally, I think that Brexit cost the UK a lot. It wasn’t just the decision itself, it was the fact that for x amount (4?) years, UK politicians did next to NOTHING else but mess around with the fallout. The country just stood still on so many fronts. To make such a decision on a simple majority was naive. Scotland’s 1979 call for devolution had a simple majority to exit the UK but was rejected because of poor turnout. For a history altering event, I’m shocked that they didn’t put in a point that something like 55-60% of votes needed to be exit. Oh I agree with you that we'll never get as good a deal, especially with the opt-outs, which is why I'm not entirely convinced we will ever fully rejoin I suspect we will end up with a similar arrangement to Norway There is no doubt that Brexit has been an economic disaster which will have a permanent lowering of GDP per Capita for decades This is particularly marked in an already very Economically Divided Society Brexit has been a long time in gestation dating back to Keith Joseph and his influence in shaping "Thatcherism" but his later thoughts fostered by the Tufton Street Think Tanks went much further and the later day Britianna Unchained Mob Johnson was an opportunist whose allegiance was to Boris and his legacy not to Brexit. The Brexit Ultra's were ecstatic when Liz became PM so they could unleash the Brexit "Opportunities" they felt Boris hadn't Well we saw what happened next. What I'm trying to say in a VERY roundabout way is that whatever term you want to ascribe to it, Thatcherism, Reganomics, Trickle Down etc which theoretically involves no State Involvement in Industry, Low Taxes, Family Values, light touch Regulation, Two Tier Health and Public Service and Broadcasting BBC reform is a failed Ideology The Brexit Campaign delivered an entirely different message of Sunlit Uplands and Britannia once more ruling the waves. It was an attractive package to an Electorate that had been worn down by years of Austerity and were prepared to believe "well things can get worse, can they?" The "Levelling Up" Bullshit didn't arrive until the 2019 GE when all the Grown-up's had been purged from the Conservative Party. It was necessary to get Brexit "Over the Line" which most people were sick to death of hearing about In another master stroke by Cameron he declared he would carry out the wishes of the non-binding Referendum Vote and immediately resigned when he lost Conversely the 1979 Scottish Devolution was held under Statutory Act and was therefore binding The 40% provision was an ammendment to the original Act. The Turnout in the 1997 Referendum was lower at 60% than the 64% in 1979 but met the 40% threshold
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Post by foghornsgleghorn on Jan 30, 2023 19:10:07 GMT
For the Brexit faithful it's no longer about trying to convince remainers that Brexit was a good idea, more a case of trying to persuade a sizeable chunk of those who voted for it that they weren't conned.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Jan 30, 2023 21:54:04 GMT
Exactly!
It's an absolute tragedy what it's done to this country. 🙁
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Post by andystokey on Jan 30, 2023 22:04:07 GMT
If it had been a vote for strike action it would have been called illegal.
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Post by wannabee on Jan 30, 2023 23:00:07 GMT
Exactly! It's an absolute tragedy what it's done to this country. 🙁 This is Pythonesque and the funniest thing I've seen for a while, thanks for posting Paul It's got the shades of Cronus about it The New Mantra is Brexit is Good, the Deal is Bad
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jan 30, 2023 23:09:23 GMT
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jan 30, 2023 23:17:31 GMT
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