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Post by mrcoke on Jul 26, 2022 14:56:49 GMT
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Jul 26, 2022 15:25:39 GMT
Possibly. Or maybe it's just as he says and Brexit has made it too complex and too expensive. It's his business so I guess he'd know better than you or I.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Jul 26, 2022 15:40:44 GMT
Possibly. Or maybe it's just as he says and Brexit has made it too complex and too expensive. It's his business so I guess he'd know better than you or I. My brother owns his own (very successful) wine wholesale company. Brexit is crippling his business, as well as numerous others of his competitors.
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Jul 26, 2022 18:51:44 GMT
Possibly. Or maybe it's just as he says and Brexit has made it too complex and too expensive. It's his business so I guess he'd know better than you or I. My brother owns his own (very successful) wine wholesale company. Brexit is crippling his business, as well as numerous others of his competitors. Now come on Paul - we both know it's not Brexit. It can't be - because nothing is. Have a word with him and tell him he just needs to "believe" more.
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Post by RipRoaringPotter on Jul 26, 2022 19:43:48 GMT
Possibly. Or maybe it's just as he says and Brexit has made it too complex and too expensive. It's his business so I guess he'd know better than you or I. My brother owns his own (very successful) wine wholesale company. Brexit is crippling his business, as well as numerous others of his competitors. Has he tried moving on, getting over it, or believing in his business a bit more?
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Post by lordb on Jul 26, 2022 19:49:17 GMT
My brother owns his own (very successful) wine wholesale company. Brexit is crippling his business, as well as numerous others of his competitors. Has he tried moving on, getting over it, or believing in his business a bit more? He's experiencing difficulties because of Brexit Completely unnecessary difficulties. What are businesses supposed to do, pretend they aren't there?
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Jul 26, 2022 20:01:34 GMT
Has he tried moving on, getting over it, or believing in his business a bit more? He's experiencing difficulties because of Brexit Completely unnecessary difficulties. What are businesses supposed to do, pretend they aren't there? I think he was being ironic mate.
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Post by cvillestokie on Jul 26, 2022 20:14:40 GMT
He's experiencing difficulties because of Brexit Completely unnecessary difficulties. What are businesses supposed to do, pretend they aren't there? I think he was being ironic mate. Sarcastic?
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Post by lordb on Jul 26, 2022 20:20:09 GMT
He's experiencing difficulties because of Brexit Completely unnecessary difficulties. What are businesses supposed to do, pretend they aren't there? I think he was being ironic mate. Doh
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Post by oggyoggy on Aug 3, 2022 8:00:15 GMT
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Post by mrcoke on Aug 3, 2022 9:12:24 GMT
oggy, that article has so many lies and distortions it is difficult to know where to begin. So let's start with the first item mentioned, inflation. The UK has spiralling inflation which is worse than the rest of the G7, but it is nothing to do with Brexit. Other countries' governments have direct far more direct action to minimise inflation: In Germany, a three-month initiative that started on June 1st, means people can travel around the country for just €9 (£7.50) a month. Fuel tax has been reduced by around 30 cents a litre for petrol, bringing prices down to less than €2 a litre. Diesel prices have also been brought down to the EU minimum for the next three months, meaning a litre of diesel has been reduced by around 14 cents. Other measures imposed by the German government to help alleviate soaring living costs include people in work receiving a one-off rebate of €300 to help with energy costs in the autumn. In July, recipients of child benefit will receive a €100 bonus. People on welfare benefits will also receive €100. In France after announcing a one-off €100 (£84) payment in 2021 to 5.8 million households receiving energy vouchers, the French government forced the state-owned energy provider to cap wholesale prices for a year. Since September 2021 electricity rates have been capped at a 4% rise, rather than 44.5%, and regulated gas tariffs have been frozen rather than increasing by 60%. Little wonder French inflation is so low. France has also been experimenting with free public transport since 2018, and in March, Paris cut the cost of rail travel tickets. Many European countries have also been implementing support schemes for home insulation. For example, in March Ireland adopted a grant policy that provides up to 50% of the costs of a deep retrofit. The UK has dragged its heels on insulation.. The Dutch increased the energy benefit from €200 to €800 and slashing VAT on energy bills from 21% to 9%. As I pointed out on the energy thread last night, BBC analysis has found Italy was the highest European financial assistance provider with 2% of GDP support to help with energy bills. This was followed by Spain at 1.7%, and then France, which is spending 1.5% of GDP to help with soaring energy bills. Both Germany and the UK are spending 0.8% and the Netherlands, 0.7% . The UK government has announced several support packages to help people through the current financial crisis, including two cost-of-living payments to households receiving welfare benefit. It has however been rightly accused of acting indecisively and criticised for not going far enough, particularly to support low-income families. Where as France has capped energy prices at 4%, millions of UK households saw their gas and electricity bills jump by more then 50% in April. In May, the chancellor announced a package of measures including providing 8 million low-income households with one-off increases to welfare payments. It is clear that UK inflation is higher than other G7 countries because of far lees action by the UK government and not attributable to Brexit.On the other hand the Bank of England have been taking action by raising interest rates. It was not until June the European Central Bank decided to start increasing interest rates to stem Euro zone inflation following the end of its net asset purchase on July 1st. Time will tell who has acted better, I suggest the ECB have been too slow to act and the Euro will suffer the consequences. I suggest looking at this data: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europeThe UK may have worse inflation than the G7, but the UK has lower inflation than the EU as a whole and lower inflation than most countries in Europe. Some of the European countries with the lowest inflation are not in the EU. France is among them but at the cost of building up a massive debt by their power industry which will have to be funded in the future. On the basis of that evidence being outside the EU is a good thing for inflation and other countries ought to leave the EU. I suggest people actually look at the facts and not believe the distortions of the truth by papers like the Guardian, Independent, and Financial Times who are running an anti Brexit campaign of misinformation.
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Post by followyoudown on Aug 3, 2022 10:06:35 GMT
Brexit a total disaster....
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Post by oggyoggy on Aug 3, 2022 10:10:45 GMT
oggy, that article has so many lies and distortions it is difficult to know where to begin. So let's start with the first item mentioned, inflation. The UK has spiralling inflation which is worse than the rest of the G7, but it is nothing to do with Brexit. Other countries' governments have direct far more direct action to minimise inflation: In Germany, a three-month initiative that started on June 1st, means people can travel around the country for just €9 (£7.50) a month. Fuel tax has been reduced by around 30 cents a litre for petrol, bringing prices down to less than €2 a litre. Diesel prices have also been brought down to the EU minimum for the next three months, meaning a litre of diesel has been reduced by around 14 cents. Other measures imposed by the German government to help alleviate soaring living costs include people in work receiving a one-off rebate of €300 to help with energy costs in the autumn. In July, recipients of child benefit will receive a €100 bonus. People on welfare benefits will also receive €100. In France after announcing a one-off €100 (£84) payment in 2021 to 5.8 million households receiving energy vouchers, the French government forced the state-owned energy provider to cap wholesale prices for a year. Since September 2021 electricity rates have been capped at a 4% rise, rather than 44.5%, and regulated gas tariffs have been frozen rather than increasing by 60%. Little wonder French inflation is so low. France has also been experimenting with free public transport since 2018, and in March, Paris cut the cost of rail travel tickets. Many European countries have also been implementing support schemes for home insulation. For example, in March Ireland adopted a grant policy that provides up to 50% of the costs of a deep retrofit. The UK has dragged its heels on insulation.. The Dutch increased the energy benefit from €200 to €800 and slashing VAT on energy bills from 21% to 9%. As I pointed out on the energy thread last night, BBC analysis has found Italy was the highest European financial assistance provider with 2% of GDP support to help with energy bills. This was followed by Spain at 1.7%, and then France, which is spending 1.5% of GDP to help with soaring energy bills. Both Germany and the UK are spending 0.8% and the Netherlands, 0.7% . The UK government has announced several support packages to help people through the current financial crisis, including two cost-of-living payments to households receiving welfare benefit. It has however been rightly accused of acting indecisively and criticised for not going far enough, particularly to support low-income families. Where as France has capped energy prices at 4%, millions of UK households saw their gas and electricity bills jump by more then 50% in April. In May, the chancellor announced a package of measures including providing 8 million low-income households with one-off increases to welfare payments. It is clear that UK inflation is higher than other G7 countries because of far lees action by the UK government and not attributable to Brexit.On the other hand the Bank of England have been taking action by raising interest rates. It was not until June the European Central Bank decided to start increasing interest rates to stem Euro zone inflation following the end of its net asset purchase on July 1st. Time will tell who has acted better, I suggest the ECB have been too slow to act and the Euro will suffer the consequences. I suggest looking at this data: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europeThe UK may have worse inflation than the G7, but the UK has lower inflation than the EU as a whole and lower inflation than most countries in Europe. Some of the European countries with the lowest inflation are not in the EU. France is among them but at the cost of building up a massive debt by their power industry which will have to be funded in the future. On the basis of that evidence being outside the EU is a good thing for inflation and other countries ought to leave the EU. I suggest people actually look at the facts and not believe the distortions of the truth by papers like the Guardian, Independent, and Financial Times who are running an anti Brexit campaign of misinformation. Everything isn’t black or white. So there is absolutely no denying that inflation and the cost of living crisis is partially caused by issues completely unrelated to brexit. But something which exacerbates it is brexit and the deal we now have. It means costs are higher for consumers and businesses. That is an undeniable fact caused by additional bureaucracy caused by brexit to trade. Tighter immigration rules and an exodus of EU citizens who feel unwanted and blamed for the UKs problems has exacerbated the labour shortages. The queues at Dover are caused by it taking almost double the tome to check everyone at the border because of brexit. We have ripped up our biggest trade deal and replaced it with something much worse, and a few minor trade deals woth the rest of the world that are far less significant. I completely agree that our government is doing next to nothing to make things better. We have a terrible government. But that extends to brexit policy which has made things worse because our closest neighbours like us less as a result of our government’s approach to brexit. The difference in growth figures between the UK and the EU since the brexit vote are not some strange coincidence. The massive devalued pound is also not a coincidence. It is also not a coincidence that N Ire has done a lot better than the rest of the UK as it has much better access to the single market. The only way to make the most of the so called opportunities of brexit is to be able to acknowledge that there are also huge downsides, and we need to mitigate those.
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Post by oggyoggy on Aug 3, 2022 10:25:08 GMT
Brexit a total disaster.... £1 bought you €1.31 in May 2016 It now buys you £1.20 CPI is 120.5 for June 2022. It was at 100.4 in May 2016. So in real terms the value of exports in May 2016 to now is £160,757bn in todays money, which has more purchasing power then compared to now when you account for the drop in value of the pound as: £160,757 bought you over 210,591bn of euros when you value the pound at May 2016. £170,560 buys you 204,672 euros now. So the actual value of exports has in fact dropped since May 2016 compared with now. Recessionary.
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Post by mrcoke on Aug 3, 2022 11:59:51 GMT
oggy, that article has so many lies and distortions it is difficult to know where to begin. So let's start with the first item mentioned, inflation. The UK has spiralling inflation which is worse than the rest of the G7, but it is nothing to do with Brexit. Other countries' governments have direct far more direct action to minimise inflation: In Germany, a three-month initiative that started on June 1st, means people can travel around the country for just €9 (£7.50) a month. Fuel tax has been reduced by around 30 cents a litre for petrol, bringing prices down to less than €2 a litre. Diesel prices have also been brought down to the EU minimum for the next three months, meaning a litre of diesel has been reduced by around 14 cents. Other measures imposed by the German government to help alleviate soaring living costs include people in work receiving a one-off rebate of €300 to help with energy costs in the autumn. In July, recipients of child benefit will receive a €100 bonus. People on welfare benefits will also receive €100. In France after announcing a one-off €100 (£84) payment in 2021 to 5.8 million households receiving energy vouchers, the French government forced the state-owned energy provider to cap wholesale prices for a year. Since September 2021 electricity rates have been capped at a 4% rise, rather than 44.5%, and regulated gas tariffs have been frozen rather than increasing by 60%. Little wonder French inflation is so low. France has also been experimenting with free public transport since 2018, and in March, Paris cut the cost of rail travel tickets. Many European countries have also been implementing support schemes for home insulation. For example, in March Ireland adopted a grant policy that provides up to 50% of the costs of a deep retrofit. The UK has dragged its heels on insulation.. The Dutch increased the energy benefit from €200 to €800 and slashing VAT on energy bills from 21% to 9%. As I pointed out on the energy thread last night, BBC analysis has found Italy was the highest European financial assistance provider with 2% of GDP support to help with energy bills. This was followed by Spain at 1.7%, and then France, which is spending 1.5% of GDP to help with soaring energy bills. Both Germany and the UK are spending 0.8% and the Netherlands, 0.7% . The UK government has announced several support packages to help people through the current financial crisis, including two cost-of-living payments to households receiving welfare benefit. It has however been rightly accused of acting indecisively and criticised for not going far enough, particularly to support low-income families. Where as France has capped energy prices at 4%, millions of UK households saw their gas and electricity bills jump by more then 50% in April. In May, the chancellor announced a package of measures including providing 8 million low-income households with one-off increases to welfare payments. It is clear that UK inflation is higher than other G7 countries because of far lees action by the UK government and not attributable to Brexit.On the other hand the Bank of England have been taking action by raising interest rates. It was not until June the European Central Bank decided to start increasing interest rates to stem Euro zone inflation following the end of its net asset purchase on July 1st. Time will tell who has acted better, I suggest the ECB have been too slow to act and the Euro will suffer the consequences. I suggest looking at this data: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europeThe UK may have worse inflation than the G7, but the UK has lower inflation than the EU as a whole and lower inflation than most countries in Europe. Some of the European countries with the lowest inflation are not in the EU. France is among them but at the cost of building up a massive debt by their power industry which will have to be funded in the future. On the basis of that evidence being outside the EU is a good thing for inflation and other countries ought to leave the EU. I suggest people actually look at the facts and not believe the distortions of the truth by papers like the Guardian, Independent, and Financial Times who are running an anti Brexit campaign of misinformation. Everything isn’t black or white. So there is absolutely no denying that inflation and the cost of living crisis is partially caused by issues completely unrelated to brexit. But something which exacerbates it is brexit and the deal we now have. AIt means costs are higher for consumers and businesses. That is an undeniable fact caused by additional bureaucracy caused by brexit to trade. BTighter immigration rules and an exodus of EU citizens who feel unwanted and blamed for the UKs problems has exacerbated the labour shortages. CThe queues at Dover are caused by it taking almost double the tome to check everyone at the border because of brexit. DWe have ripped up our biggest trade deal and replaced it with something much worse, and a few minor trade deals woth the rest of the world that are far less significant. EI completely agree that our government is doing next to nothing to make things better. We have a terrible government. But that extends to brexit policy which has made things worse because our closest neighbours like us less as a result of our government’s approach to brexit. FThe difference in growth figures between the UK and the EU since the brexit vote are not some strange coincidence. The massive devalued pound is also not a coincidence. It is also not a coincidence that N Ire has done a lot better than the rest of the UK as it has much better access to the single market. GThe only way to make the most of the so called opportunities of brexit is to be able to acknowledge that there are also huge downsides, and we need to mitigate those. H A Worldwide factors are largely the cause of inflation, which is affecting the whole world. The UK inflation is only marginally higher than the Eurozone, lower than the EU generally, and higher solely because of lack of government action as I explained at length above. B UK trade is growing since the pandemic and since leaving the EU. Goods exports to the EU reached £16.4bn in April 2022, their highest level in current prices since the series began in 1997. We will se next week the figures for Quarter 2. Post pandemic shortages are still affecting industry and construction as Germany are finding more than anyone. www.cityam.com/boost-for-global-britain-as-uk-exports-to-eu-defy-brexit-challenges-and-hit-highest-level-ever/C In March 2022 there was an estimated 2.20 million EU nationals working in the UK, 25,000 higher (+1%) than a year earlier. The number of EU workers were 2,144,000 in March 2016 so this March there are more workers of EU nationality in the UK The idea of a mass exodus of European workers following the Brexit vote is therefore false, in fact, since the referendum the total number of EU workers has consistently remained above where it stood at any time before the end of 2015 before the referendum was even announced in February 2016. What actually happened is that during the pandemic many returned to their homeland to be with their families and being furloughed. It is false to claim that Brexit is driving a shortfall in foreign people working in Britain. The facts are that the number of foreign workers in the UK has grown from 3.4million in June 2016 to 3.86million in March 2022. There is no overall decline in foreign workers in Britain. Indeed, the share of foreign workers within the UK workforce is now at a historic high of 12 per cent. It is not the case that EU citizens are being treated as unwanted, it is more that all foreign nationals are now being treated equally. EU nationals are now treated the same as our Commonwealth cousins. Apart of course for those nationals with special rights such as the Irish and Hongkongers. So why is there a shortage of labour? Because so many people have chosen to stop working which is a worldwide issue and British business is growing and needs more people. The OECD has stated across its 38 member countries, 20 million fewer people are working now compared to before the pandemic. D True. So set off earlier or find another route, or go somewhere else. France is also responsible for the delays as they have a labour shortage problem! E The EU is a slow growing market that represents a smaller and smaller part of world output. The UK has largely maxed out in exports to the EU, but has huge potential to export to >80% of the world market that is not the EU. Exports to those parts of the world are growing fast apart from China, which I consider a good thing. F I agree on changing the government. We need a government to take full advantage of Brexit. G If you read my last long reports on UK economy after Brexit, (pages 1,429, 1,440, 1,452,and 1,464) you will see that our GDP is doing better than the other large economies in the EU. There are those who try and twist figures such as GDP per head and compare the UK with Luxembourg, Ireland, Poland etc. I agree on NI who have a huge opportunity being in the customs union and part of a growing UK economy; they have the best of both worlds. H The huge Brexit downsides we were warned about in 2016: recession, unemployment, falling house prices, etc have not materialised. We have one of the world's largest economies growing faster than many of the other mature economies, full employment, record low unemployment. There has never been a better time to get a job even with record skilled immigration numbers. There are some people in niche markets who have been adversely impacted by Brexit due to red tape, but that will be resolved in time.
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Post by followyoudown on Aug 3, 2022 12:22:47 GMT
Brexit a total disaster.... £1 bought you €1.31 in May 2016 It now buys you £1.20 CPI is 120.5 for June 2022. It was at 100.4 in May 2016. So in real terms the value of exports in May 2016 to now is £160,757bn in todays money, which has more purchasing power then compared to now when you account for the drop in value of the pound as: £160,757 bought you over 210,591bn of euros when you value the pound at May 2016. £170,560 buys you 204,672 euros now. So the actual value of exports has in fact dropped since May 2016 compared with now. Recessionary. Even your numbers show you exports increase from £160.8b to £170.6b adjusted for inflation, the conversion to Euro's is irrelevant and a bit barmy shows a lack of understanding as to how business works, companies will bill in gbp or gbp converted to euro at current exchange rates so something sold for £500 in May 2016 would be €655 in May 2022 it would be €600 thats assuming the export is to an end seller, if the end seller is the exporter chances are they keep the price at €655....
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Post by oggyoggy on Aug 3, 2022 12:55:30 GMT
£1 bought you €1.31 in May 2016 It now buys you £1.20 CPI is 120.5 for June 2022. It was at 100.4 in May 2016. So in real terms the value of exports in May 2016 to now is £160,757bn in todays money, which has more purchasing power then compared to now when you account for the drop in value of the pound as: £160,757 bought you over 210,591bn of euros when you value the pound at May 2016. £170,560 buys you 204,672 euros now. So the actual value of exports has in fact dropped since May 2016 compared with now. Recessionary. Even your numbers show you exports increase from £160.8b to £170.6b adjusted for inflation, the conversion to Euro's is irrelevant and a bit barmy shows a lack of understanding as to how business works, companies will bill in gbp or gbp converted to euro at current exchange rates so something sold for £500 in May 2016 would be €655 in May 2022 it would be €600 thats assuming the export is to an end seller, if the end seller is the exporter chances are they keep the price at €655.... The value of the pound is of course critical for businesses and consumers. As it falls (because of brexit), imports cost more. It matters massively. The cash generated by exports buys less now than in May 2016.
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Post by followyoudown on Aug 3, 2022 13:46:34 GMT
Even your numbers show you exports increase from £160.8b to £170.6b adjusted for inflation, the conversion to Euro's is irrelevant and a bit barmy shows a lack of understanding as to how business works, companies will bill in gbp or gbp converted to euro at current exchange rates so something sold for £500 in May 2016 would be €655 in May 2022 it would be €600 thats assuming the export is to an end seller, if the end seller is the exporter chances are they keep the price at €655.... The value of the pound is of course critical for businesses and consumers. As it falls (because of brexit), imports cost more. It matters massively. The cash generated by exports buys less now than in May 2016. Only if you think £170.6b is less than £160.8b because otherwise its pretty clear £9.8b more will buy you more, if you want to make the point UK exports might be cheaper for EU customers thats fine but again its pretty irrelevant to the ONS GBP value of exports and completely ignores my earlier point that companies adjust their sales price to take account of forex fluctuations to minimise the impact on their margins.
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Post by foster on Aug 3, 2022 13:48:15 GMT
E The EU is a slow growing market that represents a smaller and smaller part of world output. The UK has largely maxed out in exports to the EU, but has huge potential to export to >80% of the world market that is not the EU. Exports to those parts of the world are growing fast apart from China, which I consider a good thing. It is actually happening. www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/30/uk-businesses-china-cbi-tony-danker-supply-chainsThe pandemic, Brexit, inflation of container and transport costs, extremes of weather, and Ukraine war is making thousands of companies review their supply strategy to shorten supply chains and spread dependence risks. It cannot happen overnight and there is the labour shortage issue but reshoring has been building for the past decade. Seems to me that these are not really compatible. If you want to shorten supply chains, reduce transportation costs, carbon emissions and dependency risk, then the EU/Europe is the most obvious choice, other than self sufficiency.
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Post by wannabee on Aug 3, 2022 14:32:05 GMT
oggy, that article has so many lies and distortions it is difficult to know where to begin. So let's start with the first item mentioned, inflation. The UK has spiralling inflation which is worse than the rest of the G7, but it is nothing to do with Brexit. Other countries' governments have direct far more direct action to minimise inflation: In Germany, a three-month initiative that started on June 1st, means people can travel around the country for just €9 (£7.50) a month. Fuel tax has been reduced by around 30 cents a litre for petrol, bringing prices down to less than €2 a litre. Diesel prices have also been brought down to the EU minimum for the next three months, meaning a litre of diesel has been reduced by around 14 cents. Other measures imposed by the German government to help alleviate soaring living costs include people in work receiving a one-off rebate of €300 to help with energy costs in the autumn. In July, recipients of child benefit will receive a €100 bonus. People on welfare benefits will also receive €100. In France after announcing a one-off €100 (£84) payment in 2021 to 5.8 million households receiving energy vouchers, the French government forced the state-owned energy provider to cap wholesale prices for a year. Since September 2021 electricity rates have been capped at a 4% rise, rather than 44.5%, and regulated gas tariffs have been frozen rather than increasing by 60%. Little wonder French inflation is so low. France has also been experimenting with free public transport since 2018, and in March, Paris cut the cost of rail travel tickets. Many European countries have also been implementing support schemes for home insulation. For example, in March Ireland adopted a grant policy that provides up to 50% of the costs of a deep retrofit. The UK has dragged its heels on insulation.. The Dutch increased the energy benefit from €200 to €800 and slashing VAT on energy bills from 21% to 9%. As I pointed out on the energy thread last night, BBC analysis has found Italy was the highest European financial assistance provider with 2% of GDP support to help with energy bills. This was followed by Spain at 1.7%, and then France, which is spending 1.5% of GDP to help with soaring energy bills. Both Germany and the UK are spending 0.8% and the Netherlands, 0.7% . The UK government has announced several support packages to help people through the current financial crisis, including two cost-of-living payments to households receiving welfare benefit. It has however been rightly accused of acting indecisively and criticised for not going far enough, particularly to support low-income families. Where as France has capped energy prices at 4%, millions of UK households saw their gas and electricity bills jump by more then 50% in April. In May, the chancellor announced a package of measures including providing 8 million low-income households with one-off increases to welfare payments. It is clear that UK inflation is higher than other G7 countries because of far lees action by the UK government and not attributable to Brexit.On the other hand the Bank of England have been taking action by raising interest rates. It was not until June the European Central Bank decided to start increasing interest rates to stem Euro zone inflation following the end of its net asset purchase on July 1st. Time will tell who has acted better, I suggest the ECB have been too slow to act and the Euro will suffer the consequences. I suggest looking at this data: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europeThe UK may have worse inflation than the G7, but the UK has lower inflation than the EU as a whole and lower inflation than most countries in Europe. Some of the European countries with the lowest inflation are not in the EU. France is among them but at the cost of building up a massive debt by their power industry which will have to be funded in the future. On the basis of that evidence being outside the EU is a good thing for inflation and other countries ought to leave the EU. I suggest people actually look at the facts and not believe the distortions of the truth by papers like the Guardian, Independent, and Financial Times who are running an anti Brexit campaign of misinformation. I don't disagree with a lot of what you are saying insofar as EU Countries are experiencing similar problems with inflation in Food and Energy prices due to War in Ukraine I further agree with you that this useless Government's Actions or more appropriately Inactions have exacerbated the problem making UK Consumers the hardest hit because EU countries have introduced more far reaching supports to help its people to cope with CPI increases The excuse they have used is that to do so would further fuel Inflation which is manifestly untrue as evidenced by other countries actions The attached article bears out much of what you have said but also states that UK is therefore likely to be in this situation longer and deeper www.nationalworld.com/news/uk/inflation-rates-europe-2022-how-may-uk-cpi-compares-eu-countries-germany-france-3571914What you did not address however are some of the more obvious things why Brexit has indeed contributed to inflation UK imports about 50% of Food much of it from EU On eve of Referendum Sterling was Trading at 1.30 to EURO after a massive immediate fall it has never recovered to those levels Today it's about 1.20 of a fall of almost 8% That contributes significantly to cost of imported food from EU On eve of Referendum Sterling was Trading at 1.50 to US$ today its at 1.22 almost 20% fall massively increasing cost of Energy which is Traded in US$ In an attempt to prop up Sterling and manage Interest Rates, Inflation and to try and stimulate Growth and FDI the BoE has embarked on an aggressive Quantative Easing Programme (it had been suspended pre Brexit) This has further fueled inflation A Report from HoL Committee www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/6725/documents/71894/default/&ved=2ahUKEwjfhbvT6Kr5AhUXhlwKHYNfDWoQFnoECCEQAQ&usg=AOvVaw226cDWCE3XlraAUHvI0a3uBusiness as a General Rule detest uncertainty and Brexit has provided noting but uncertainty since Referendum from will there be a deal, to what type of deal will it be to currently will there be a Trade War (As Oggy mentioned) As a direct result of this FDI has much reduced since Brexit UK still attracts a certain amount of FDI but its FAR reduced from pre Brexit Levels and indeed has fallen behind some countries from a previous dominant position www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/uk-and-global-economy-after-brexit#:~:text=Brexit%20has%20reduced%20UK%20trade,in%20the%201990s%20and%202000s. So in conclusion has Brexit contributed to UK Inflation? A Resounding YES
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Post by oggyoggy on Aug 3, 2022 14:44:12 GMT
The value of the pound is of course critical for businesses and consumers. As it falls (because of brexit), imports cost more. It matters massively. The cash generated by exports buys less now than in May 2016. Only if you think £170.6b is less than £160.8b because otherwise its pretty clear £9.8b more will buy you more, if you want to make the point UK exports might be cheaper for EU customers thats fine but again its pretty irrelevant to the ONS GBP value of exports and completely ignores my earlier point that companies adjust their sales price to take account of forex fluctuations to minimise the impact on their margins. You still deny the importance of the value of a currency. What if the pound continues to devalue and it is parity with the euro, or less? What if we start using £50 notes as wallpaper because it is cheaper than buying wallpaper if a currency devalues enough? The value of the pound and the value exports produce for businesses and individuals is very important. You know that. Else you wouldn’t have quoted the tweet.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Aug 3, 2022 15:28:42 GMT
E The EU is a slow growing market that represents a smaller and smaller part of world output. The UK has largely maxed out in exports to the EU, but has huge potential to export to >80% of the world market that is not the EU. Exports to those parts of the world are growing fast apart from China, which I consider a good thing. It is actually happening. www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/30/uk-businesses-china-cbi-tony-danker-supply-chainsThe pandemic, Brexit, inflation of container and transport costs, extremes of weather, and Ukraine war is making thousands of companies review their supply strategy to shorten supply chains and spread dependence risks. It cannot happen overnight and there is the labour shortage issue but reshoring has been building for the past decade. Seems to me that these are not really compatible. If you want to shorten supply chains, reduce transportation costs, carbon emissions and dependency risk, then the EU/Europe is the most obvious choice, other than self sufficiency. You do realise you're seeking logic and consistency from a Brexiteer and keen environmentalist? Whatever it takes to make it look less like an act of national self-harm is acceptable today.
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Post by gawa on Aug 3, 2022 16:15:05 GMT
Some absolute weapons on here haha.
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Post by mrcoke on Aug 3, 2022 17:07:53 GMT
E The EU is a slow growing market that represents a smaller and smaller part of world output. The UK has largely maxed out in exports to the EU, but has huge potential to export to >80% of the world market that is not the EU. Exports to those parts of the world are growing fast apart from China, which I consider a good thing. It is actually happening. www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/30/uk-businesses-china-cbi-tony-danker-supply-chainsThe pandemic, Brexit, inflation of container and transport costs, extremes of weather, and Ukraine war is making thousands of companies review their supply strategy to shorten supply chains and spread dependence risks. It cannot happen overnight and there is the labour shortage issue but reshoring has been building for the past decade. Seems to me that these are not really compatible. If you want to shorten supply chains, reduce transportation costs, carbon emissions and dependency risk, then the EU/Europe is the most obvious choice, other than self sufficiency. There is no incompatibility between the two posts. The first one you pasted relates to UK exports. These have been growing slowly to the EU for decades because the larger countries like Germany, France, and Italy are capable of supplying themselves and don't "need" British products, and, much of Europe is a mature market and growing slowly. The opportunities for selling to the much larger and faster growing RoW market are vast. For the past two decades UK exports to RoW have been growing more than twice as fast as to the EU. With new trade deals in place we can grow them even faster. The second post you pasted relates to UK imports. For all the reasons stated a large number of UK manufacturers and retailers are seeking to bring their suppliers nearer to the UK, including incidentally changing suppliers from the far east to Eastern Europe. These businesses have been struggling with long supply chains. When challenged that it would be more expensive, one importer said he'd rather pay extra for deliveries than not get what he ordered. His business cannot run on empty. The issue is not so much costs, environmental, or dependency as security of supply and therefore security of a business. There is a vast difference between these exports and imports. The imports I am referring to are essentially goods, be they raw materials, semi finished products, or cheap products for £ shops. An example I came across last year was one UK company could not send out its products because it had run out of packaging from the far east. "Lots of tins, but no cardboard boxes to put them in!" The UK does import services, but less than a third of the total and they largely come from North America and Europe and South African call centres, not the far east. Exports on the other hand are very different. Firsrly nearly half of UK exports are services. I spoke to a computer programmer some years ago, who lives in Guisborough and whose job was programming the Sydney traffic management system, which he did while they were all asleep! Secondly the bulk of goods exported are high value products such as machinery, vehicles, high tech products like pharmaceuticals, precious metals, etc. The UK does export oil and chemicals still but they are a small part of the total although the revenue from oil at the moment is obviously very good. I trust this explains the difference between the two posts.
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Post by followyoudown on Aug 3, 2022 17:27:44 GMT
Only if you think £170.6b is less than £160.8b because otherwise its pretty clear £9.8b more will buy you more, if you want to make the point UK exports might be cheaper for EU customers thats fine but again its pretty irrelevant to the ONS GBP value of exports and completely ignores my earlier point that companies adjust their sales price to take account of forex fluctuations to minimise the impact on their margins. You still deny the importance of the value of a currency. What if the pound continues to devalue and it is parity with the euro, or less? What if we start using £50 notes as wallpaper because it is cheaper than buying wallpaper if a currency devalues enough? The value of the pound and the value exports produce for businesses and individuals is very important. You know that. Else you wouldn’t have quoted the tweet. Who denied the importance of the value of the currency I said your conversion to euro amounts was irrelevant. The value of exports is given by the ONS figures rather than accept they continue to hold up you attempted some weird conversion to euros to try and prove they have fallen.
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Post by foster on Aug 3, 2022 18:54:32 GMT
Seems to me that these are not really compatible. If you want to shorten supply chains, reduce transportation costs, carbon emissions and dependency risk, then the EU/Europe is the most obvious choice, other than self sufficiency. There is no incompatibility between the two posts. The first one you pasted relates to UK exports. These have been growing slowly to the EU for decades because the larger countries like Germany, France, and Italy are capable of supplying themselves and don't "need" British products, and, much of Europe is a mature market and growing slowly. The opportunities for selling to the much larger and faster growing RoW market are vast. For the past two decades UK exports to RoW have been growing more than twice as fast as to the EU. With new trade deals in place we can grow them even faster. The second post you pasted relates to UK imports. For all the reasons stated a large number of UK manufacturers and retailers are seeking to bring their suppliers nearer to the UK, including incidentally changing suppliers from the far east to Eastern Europe. These businesses have been struggling with long supply chains. When challenged that it would be more expensive, one importer said he'd rather pay extra for deliveries than not get what he ordered. His business cannot run on empty. The issue is not so much costs, environmental, or dependency as security of supply and therefore security of a business. There is a vast difference between these exports and imports. The imports I am referring to are essentially goods, be they raw materials, semi finished products, or cheap products for £ shops. An example I came across last year was one UK company could not send out its products because it had run out of packaging from the far east. "Lots of tins, but no cardboard boxes to put them in!" The UK does import services, but less than a third of the total and they largely come from North America and Europe and South African call centres, not the far east. Exports on the other hand are very different. Firsrly nearly half of UK exports are services. I spoke to a computer programmer some years ago, who lives in Guisborough and whose job was programming the Sydney traffic management system, which he did while they were all asleep! Secondly the bulk of goods exported are high value products such as machinery, vehicles, high tech products like pharmaceuticals, precious metals, etc. The UK does export oil and chemicals still but they are a small part of the total although the revenue from oil at the moment is obviously very good. I trust this explains the difference between the two posts. Yes, but I already knew the difference between import/export and goods/services. I think your summary is basically that we should import goods from Europe and export services and refined goods to the RoW. I would expect that all businesses, not only UK businesses, would apply the same supply chain logic for the same kind of goods. I.E, the closer the better, regardless of what the goods are. I'm also sure that production for refined goods can also be easily moved to another country. With regards to selling UK 'services' to the RoW, I do not see how this massively differs pre/post Brexit to be honest. I'm not really seeing this great opportunity arising, especially now since Services are one of the first things companies and people will cut back on as the cost of living, goods and utilities increase and they have to manage with tighter budgets. Also, I think less emphasis should be placed on 'faster growing' RoW markets since this is relative to the individual markets size. It's normal that as a market gets larger it's % rate of growth decreases proportionately. Just because a small and relatively immature market may have a faster growth rate does not indicate that it will continue to be so, especially in todays climate. It may therefore be wiser and more cautious to deal with long standing mature and stable markets, especially with all the global destabilising factors to consider such as mass immigration, land conflicts, natural disasters, uprisings, cost of living crisis, etc. Things that can and are relatively better mitigated within Europe than in most of the RoW.
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Post by wannabee on Aug 3, 2022 19:45:11 GMT
Seems to me that these are not really compatible. If you want to shorten supply chains, reduce transportation costs, carbon emissions and dependency risk, then the EU/Europe is the most obvious choice, other than self sufficiency. I see you have become selective in which posts you reply to, your prerogative I guess I had already replied in detail to your post with link to Tony Danker essentially pointing out as Foster has that your position is a complete contradiction Incidentally you didn't reply to my post on why Brexit is at least partially responsible for UK Inflation so I assume you accept this
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Post by mrcoke on Aug 3, 2022 23:00:15 GMT
oggy, that article has so many lies and distortions it is difficult to know where to begin. So let's start with the first item mentioned, inflation. The UK has spiralling inflation which is worse than the rest of the G7, but it is nothing to do with Brexit. Other countries' governments have direct far more direct action to minimise inflation: In Germany, a three-month initiative that started on June 1st, means people can travel around the country for just €9 (£7.50) a month. Fuel tax has been reduced by around 30 cents a litre for petrol, bringing prices down to less than €2 a litre. Diesel prices have also been brought down to the EU minimum for the next three months, meaning a litre of diesel has been reduced by around 14 cents. Other measures imposed by the German government to help alleviate soaring living costs include people in work receiving a one-off rebate of €300 to help with energy costs in the autumn. In July, recipients of child benefit will receive a €100 bonus. People on welfare benefits will also receive €100. In France after announcing a one-off €100 (£84) payment in 2021 to 5.8 million households receiving energy vouchers, the French government forced the state-owned energy provider to cap wholesale prices for a year. Since September 2021 electricity rates have been capped at a 4% rise, rather than 44.5%, and regulated gas tariffs have been frozen rather than increasing by 60%. Little wonder French inflation is so low. France has also been experimenting with free public transport since 2018, and in March, Paris cut the cost of rail travel tickets. Many European countries have also been implementing support schemes for home insulation. For example, in March Ireland adopted a grant policy that provides up to 50% of the costs of a deep retrofit. The UK has dragged its heels on insulation.. The Dutch increased the energy benefit from €200 to €800 and slashing VAT on energy bills from 21% to 9%. As I pointed out on the energy thread last night, BBC analysis has found Italy was the highest European financial assistance provider with 2% of GDP support to help with energy bills. This was followed by Spain at 1.7%, and then France, which is spending 1.5% of GDP to help with soaring energy bills. Both Germany and the UK are spending 0.8% and the Netherlands, 0.7% . The UK government has announced several support packages to help people through the current financial crisis, including two cost-of-living payments to households receiving welfare benefit. It has however been rightly accused of acting indecisively and criticised for not going far enough, particularly to support low-income families. Where as France has capped energy prices at 4%, millions of UK households saw their gas and electricity bills jump by more then 50% in April. In May, the chancellor announced a package of measures including providing 8 million low-income households with one-off increases to welfare payments. It is clear that UK inflation is higher than other G7 countries because of far lees action by the UK government and not attributable to Brexit.On the other hand the Bank of England have been taking action by raising interest rates. It was not until June the European Central Bank decided to start increasing interest rates to stem Euro zone inflation following the end of its net asset purchase on July 1st. Time will tell who has acted better, I suggest the ECB have been too slow to act and the Euro will suffer the consequences. I suggest looking at this data: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europeThe UK may have worse inflation than the G7, but the UK has lower inflation than the EU as a whole and lower inflation than most countries in Europe. Some of the European countries with the lowest inflation are not in the EU. France is among them but at the cost of building up a massive debt by their power industry which will have to be funded in the future. On the basis of that evidence being outside the EU is a good thing for inflation and other countries ought to leave the EU. I suggest people actually look at the facts and not believe the distortions of the truth by papers like the Guardian, Independent, and Financial Times who are running an anti Brexit campaign of misinformation. I don't disagree with a lot of what you are saying insofar as EU Countries are experiencing similar problems with inflation in Food and Energy prices due to War in Ukraine I further agree with you that this useless Government's Actions or more appropriately Inactions have exacerbated the problem making UK Consumers the hardest hit because EU countries have introduced more far reaching supports to help its people to cope with CPI increases The excuse they have used is that to do so would further fuel Inflation which is manifestly untrue as evidenced by other countries actions The attached article bears out much of what you have said but also states that UK is therefore likely to be in this situation longer and deeper www.nationalworld.com/news/uk/inflation-rates-europe-2022-how-may-uk-cpi-compares-eu-countries-germany-france-3571914What you did not address however are some of the more obvious things why Brexit has indeed contributed to inflation UK imports about 50% of Food much of it from EU On eve of Referendum Sterling was Trading at 1.30 to EURO after a massive immediate fall it has never recovered to those levels Today it's about 1.20 of a fall of almost 8% That contributes significantly to cost of imported food from EU On eve of Referendum Sterling was Trading at 1.50 to US$ today its at 1.22 almost 20% fall massively increasing cost of Energy which is Traded in US$ In an attempt to prop up Sterling and manage Interest Rates, Inflation and to try and stimulate Growth and FDI the BoE has embarked on an aggressive Quantative Easing Programme (it had been suspended pre Brexit) This has further fueled inflation A Report from HoL Committee www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/6725/documents/71894/default/&ved=2ahUKEwjfhbvT6Kr5AhUXhlwKHYNfDWoQFnoECCEQAQ&usg=AOvVaw226cDWCE3XlraAUHvI0a3uBusiness as a General Rule detest uncertainty and Brexit has provided noting but uncertainty since Referendum from will there be a deal, to what type of deal will it be to currently will there be a Trade War (As Oggy mentioned) As a direct result of this FDI has much reduced since Brexit UK still attracts a certain amount of FDI but its FAR reduced from pre Brexit Levels and indeed has fallen behind some countries from a previous dominant position www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/uk-and-global-economy-after-brexit#:~:text=Brexit%20has%20reduced%20UK%20trade,in%20the%201990s%20and%202000s. So in conclusion has Brexit contributed to UK Inflation? A Resounding YES Apologies for not posting a reply sooner but I do have another life apart from my supporting Brexit. The Mrs has gone to bed so here goes: We are agreed that government policy (such as quantitative easing) or lack of action has contributed to inflation. We will never know how much, but I would venture to suggest it is more than the difference between the UK inflation rate and the Eurozone inflation rate of 0.5%. I repeat what I have posted previously inflation is less that the EU mean by 0.2% and most EU countries' rates. tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europeYou raised the issue of food inflation attributing it to leaving the EU. Please examine this next link: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/food-inflation?continent=europeUK food inflation rate is lower the the EU, the Eurozone and most EU countries. Again it is noticeable that countries not in the EU generally have lower inflation. If leaving the EU has caused the UK to have higher inflation we would have been markedly better than the other countries. Do you really believe that? I agree that the procrastination of the May government and undermining of negotiations with the EU by those opposed to Brexit did a lot of damage to investment. But that is over now. Your link to PIIE article is illuminating in the sense of how bizarre some people's efforts are to try and prove Brexit is not working. Whilst the main meaningful measures of economic performance such as actual trade, GDP, unemployment, etc. are not quoted there are strange convoluted measures such as trade openness, foreign born population growth(!), immigrant population growth, trading relationships, etc. What do these measure actually mean in terms of impact on the country's economy? The graph of UK FDI in the link only goes to show how cyclical it is and trends should be looked at over many years not a few quarters. Organisations opposed to Brexit have continued to publish articles predicting economic ruin for over 6 years. These "mañana " articles have a number of things in common; they invariably forecast economic calamity at sometime in the future, such as "next year" or "for the next decade" or "by 2030". Since leaving the EU countless articles keep appearing blaming every national ill on Brexit, despite the fact that other countries are struggling with exactly the same issues. Another form of false propaganda are claims that other countries are performing better than the UK because we have left the EU with articles including misleading graphs without units of measurement, often meaningless percentages, and often with an arbitrary historic base point to which they have chosen to allocate 100 or zero. They never look at the trend over a decade or more. More recently articles are appearing claiming that the UK would be performing better had it chosen to remain in the EU. These articles are based on theoretical arguments using clever software, sometimes referred to as "doppelganger" models. Like Julian Jessop I grow weary of the constant misinformation, distortion, false attribution, and in some cases outright lies propagated by those opposed to Brexit. reaction.life/how-the-remainer-media-still-get-brexit-wrong-and-why-it-matters/The factual evidence I have given in my posts on the UK's post Brexit performance has demonstrated that since Brexit the UK is performing at least as well economically as the G7 members of the EU. The Financial Times is one of the regular sources of adverse Brexit comment such as " The deafening silence over Brexit’s economic fallout" article published in June. archive.ph/2022.06.20-093645/https://www.ft.com/content/7a209a34-7d95-47aa-91b0-bf02d4214764#selection-1489.0-1489.52As usual the article starts with a healthy criticism of Boris Johnson's performance to get readers onside, then talks about the fall off in investment after the referendum, but mentions no numbers, or the fact that investment as a % of GDP was increasing in 2019 before the pandemic impact: www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-kingdom/investment--nominal-gdpThat doesn't stop the FT author drawing a trend line between the peaks (not mean) points on the graph that totally ignores the fact that there has been a world pandemic and there is a war raging in Europe. In terms of business investment as a percentage of GDP the above link shows no fall off in investment after the referendum and in fact during the first half of 2019 investment peaked to its highest level since the early 1990s. This year investment in the UK is now at an all time record level. The article's only other statistical evidence provided is the new expression of "trade relationships" showing a large drop with the EU. But no mention of what actual damage it may have caused to the economy, or any actual trade values, or any reference to the increased self sufficiency of the UK, or increased relationships with non EU countries. What reduced trade relationships actually means is, for example ((for Liz Truss), we are actually exporting less cheese and buying more of our own UK cheese and importing less foreign cheese. It is a great shame to see a journal like the Financial Times sink to such a low level of prejudiced journalism. One source most commonly quoted in papers opposed to Brexit is by The Centre For European Reform, a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. Probably one of the last organizations on the planet that would like to see another country leave the EU. They say their ‘doppelgängers’ are based a basket of countries whose economic performance closely matches the UK’s before the Brexit referendum. Their workings are seriously flawed. Firstly, the UK services economy represents over 80% GDP value added as a % of employment in 2019. The USA and France are the nearest to the UK at 77%. Other countries over 80% are significantly smaller economies than the UK like The Netherlands, Sweden, Luxembourg, and Singapore. None of the world's other major economies closely match the UK. Secondly the research uses different sets of comparator countries for different variables and different comparators to earlier reports. The June 2022 CER report uses different sets of comparators for GDP, investment, and trade. Surely it is logical to make comparisons with a consistent set of countries? It is quite apparent to me that the CER are cherry picking the data that produces the end conclusion they seek. Thirdly, like a lot of posters on this MB, they assume that any divergence between the UK and comparators is entirely due to Brexit, but during the period examined there has been wide divergence between countries in terms of the impact of the pandemic, the actions of individual governments, and speed of recovery from the pandemic. There have been countless posts on this MB about how badly the UK government has managed the pandemic relative to other countries, but then many still blame the nation's economic problems on Brexit. In fact it has become systemic to blame Brexit even though many other nations have the same economic problems and in many cases worse problems. It is also self evident that each country goes through its own economic cycle of upswings and down-swings in its economy; the whole world does not function in economic unison. Fourthly, the doppelgangers indicate there was a loss of GDP of 2.9% even before the pandemic and the UK leaving the EU. The reality is UK exports were booming in 2018 and 2019, boosted by the drop in the value of the £ following the referendum, and hardly likely to keep increasing at the pace they were in 2018 and 2019. But articles still try and draw comparison with 2019 and say any change is due to Brexit and totally ignore the pandemic effects that are still with us. Fifthly, the tweeters of the results of the doppelgangers highlight the loss in UK performance due to lower investment. Investors hesitate to invest when the future is unclear. Over three years were lost from the time of the 2016 referendum till Johnson emphatic general election victory, during which Tory governments procrastinated over Article 50, failed to get bills passed, held not one, but two general elections, and those opposed to Brexit gave succour to the EU trying to undermine progress on Brexit. Had Cameron triggered Article 50 immediately after the referendum, the result of which he promised to implement, then the UK could have been out of the EU in two years. I also believe that such expeditious action would have forced a better deal for the UK as the EU would have understood the UK was resolute and not vacillating. It is also the case that investment is cyclical and not consistent from year to year so it cannot be automatically presumed that the same investment trend would have continued had the UK voted to remain in the EU. The cyclical nature particularly applies to FDI, which can be very "lumpy" (a Mrcoke technical term) such as Google's investment in its London HQ which is a huge one off. Sixthly, the reduced goods trade is highlighted in tweets blaming Brexit, but if you dig into the detail you find the estimate for services trade is that the UK’s level is 7.9 per cent higher than that of the doppelganger, but not tweeted because "the estimate is not robust". Another example of biased analysis/reporting. The acid test is that in the real post Brexit world unlike the UK, the economies of Germany, Japan, and Italy have still not returned to their pre pandemic levels. France returned to pre pandemic GDP level in October 2021, just one month ahead of the UK despite the fact that the UK was far more adversely impacted by the pandemic than France. France's economy then declined in Q1 whilst the UK's continued to expand. We will know more about Q2 performance next week. tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdptradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-constant-pricestradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-constant-pricesIt is logical that the UK leaving the EU after nearly half a century of membership is going to cause some economic damage in the short term. This evidenced by export of fresh food and red tape selling to and importing from the EU, which hasn't impaired Northern Ireland. But the imports of goods from the EU have also dropped and benefited UK domestic sales. At the end of the day, the reality is that the the UK has left the EU and is performing satisfactorily economically compared to the rest of the G7, despite the incompetence of the present government. Dr Graham Gudgin has published a more plausible economic comparison, between the UK and the other G7 countries, which shows " no visible impact from Brexit at all." GDP in current prices in the UK " fell a little behind the G6 in 2018" (sic) but then recovered by 2019. The Covid-induced decline in 2020 was " a little deeper than the G6" (sic) and, as expected from its earlier ending of lockdowns, the UK’s recovery has been " a little faster". Gudgin's paper includes a detailed critique of the CER doppelgangers, see reference. policyexchange.org.uk/why-the-centre-for-european-reform-is-wrong-about-brexit/I've no doubt that those opposed to Brexit will continue to claim things would be better had we remained in the EU. But that is futile and impossible to know as the pandemic and war in Ukraine, what Harold Macmillan called "events", constantly bring about a changing world scene.
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Post by neworleanstokie on Aug 3, 2022 23:18:26 GMT
I don't disagree with a lot of what you are saying insofar as EU Countries are experiencing similar problems with inflation in Food and Energy prices due to War in Ukraine I further agree with you that this useless Government's Actions or more appropriately Inactions have exacerbated the problem making UK Consumers the hardest hit because EU countries have introduced more far reaching supports to help its people to cope with CPI increases The excuse they have used is that to do so would further fuel Inflation which is manifestly untrue as evidenced by other countries actions The attached article bears out much of what you have said but also states that UK is therefore likely to be in this situation longer and deeper www.nationalworld.com/news/uk/inflation-rates-europe-2022-how-may-uk-cpi-compares-eu-countries-germany-france-3571914What you did not address however are some of the more obvious things why Brexit has indeed contributed to inflation UK imports about 50% of Food much of it from EU On eve of Referendum Sterling was Trading at 1.30 to EURO after a massive immediate fall it has never recovered to those levels Today it's about 1.20 of a fall of almost 8% That contributes significantly to cost of imported food from EU On eve of Referendum Sterling was Trading at 1.50 to US$ today its at 1.22 almost 20% fall massively increasing cost of Energy which is Traded in US$ In an attempt to prop up Sterling and manage Interest Rates, Inflation and to try and stimulate Growth and FDI the BoE has embarked on an aggressive Quantative Easing Programme (it had been suspended pre Brexit) This has further fueled inflation A Report from HoL Committee www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/6725/documents/71894/default/&ved=2ahUKEwjfhbvT6Kr5AhUXhlwKHYNfDWoQFnoECCEQAQ&usg=AOvVaw226cDWCE3XlraAUHvI0a3uBusiness as a General Rule detest uncertainty and Brexit has provided noting but uncertainty since Referendum from will there be a deal, to what type of deal will it be to currently will there be a Trade War (As Oggy mentioned) As a direct result of this FDI has much reduced since Brexit UK still attracts a certain amount of FDI but its FAR reduced from pre Brexit Levels and indeed has fallen behind some countries from a previous dominant position www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/uk-and-global-economy-after-brexit#:~:text=Brexit%20has%20reduced%20UK%20trade,in%20the%201990s%20and%202000s. So in conclusion has Brexit contributed to UK Inflation? A Resounding YES Apologies for not posting a reply sooner but I do have another life apart from my supporting Brexit. The Mrs has gone to bed so here goes: We are agreed that government policy (such as quantitative easing) or lack of action has contributed to inflation. We will never know how much, but I would venture to suggest it is more than the difference between the UK inflation rate and the Eurozone inflation rate of 0.5%. I repeat what I have posted previously inflation is less that the EU mean by 0.2% and most EU countries' rates. tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europeYou raised the issue of food inflation attributing it to leaving the EU. Please examine this next link: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/food-inflation?continent=europeUK food inflation rate is lower the the EU, the Eurozone and most EU countries. Again it is noticeable that countries not in the EU generally have lower inflation. If leaving the EU has caused the UK to have higher inflation we would have been markedly better than the other countries. Do you really believe that? I agree that the procrastination of the May government and undermining of negotiations with the EU by those opposed to Brexit did a lot of damage to investment. But that is over now. Your link to PIIE article is illuminating in the sense of how bizarre some people's efforts are to try and prove Brexit is not working. Whilst the main meaningful measures of economic performance such as actual trade, GDP, unemployment, etc. are not quoted there are strange convoluted measures such as trade openness, foreign born population growth(!), immigrant population growth, trading relationships, etc. What do these measure actually mean in terms of impact on the country's economy? The graph of UK FDI in the link only goes to show how cyclical it is and trends should be looked at over many years not a few quarters. Organisations opposed to Brexit have continued to publish articles predicting economic ruin for over 6 years. These "mañana " articles have a number of things in common; they invariably forecast economic calamity at sometime in the future, such as "next year" or "for the next decade" or "by 2030". Since leaving the EU countless articles keep appearing blaming every national ill on Brexit, despite the fact that other countries are struggling with exactly the same issues. Another form of false propaganda are claims that other countries are performing better than the UK because we have left the EU with articles including misleading graphs without units of measurement, often meaningless percentages, and often with an arbitrary historic base point to which they have chosen to allocate 100 or zero. They never look at the trend over a decade or more. More recently articles are appearing claiming that the UK would be performing better had it chosen to remain in the EU. These articles are based on theoretical arguments using clever software, sometimes referred to as "doppelganger" models. Like Julian Jessop I grow weary of the constant misinformation, distortion, false attribution, and in some cases outright lies propagated by those opposed to Brexit. reaction.life/how-the-remainer-media-still-get-brexit-wrong-and-why-it-matters/The factual evidence I have given in my posts on the UK's post Brexit performance has demonstrated that since Brexit the UK is performing at least as well economically as the G7 members of the EU. The Financial Times is one of the regular sources of adverse Brexit comment such as " The deafening silence over Brexit’s economic fallout" article published in June. archive.ph/2022.06.20-093645/https://www.ft.com/content/7a209a34-7d95-47aa-91b0-bf02d4214764#selection-1489.0-1489.52As usual the article starts with a healthy criticism of Boris Johnson's performance to get readers onside, then talks about the fall off in investment after the referendum, but mentions no numbers, or the fact that investment as a % of GDP was increasing in 2019 before the pandemic impact: www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-kingdom/investment--nominal-gdpThat doesn't stop the FT author drawing a trend line between the peaks (not mean) points on the graph that totally ignores the fact that there has been a world pandemic and there is a war raging in Europe. In terms of business investment as a percentage of GDP the above link shows no fall off in investment after the referendum and in fact during the first half of 2019 investment peaked to its highest level since the early 1990s. This year investment in the UK is now at an all time record level. The article's only other statistical evidence provided is the new expression of "trade relationships" showing a large drop with the EU. But no mention of what actual damage it may have caused to the economy, or any actual trade values, or any reference to the increased self sufficiency of the UK, or increased relationships with non EU countries. What reduced trade relationships actually means is, for example ((for Liz Truss), we are actually exporting less cheese and buying more of our own UK cheese and importing less foreign cheese. It is a great shame to see a journal like the Financial Times sink to such a low level of prejudiced journalism. One source most commonly quoted in papers opposed to Brexit is by The Centre For European Reform, a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. Probably one of the last organizations on the planet that would like to see another country leave the EU. They say their ‘doppelgängers’ are based a basket of countries whose economic performance closely matches the UK’s before the Brexit referendum. Their workings are seriously flawed. Firstly, the UK services economy represents over 80% GDP value added as a % of employment in 2019. The USA and France are the nearest to the UK at 77%. Other countries over 80% are significantly smaller economies than the UK like The Netherlands, Sweden, Luxembourg, and Singapore. None of the world's other major economies closely match the UK. Secondly the research uses different sets of comparator countries for different variables and different comparators to earlier reports. The June 2022 CER report uses different sets of comparators for GDP, investment, and trade. Surely it is logical to make comparisons with a consistent set of countries? It is quite apparent to me that the CER are cherry picking the data that produces the end conclusion they seek. Thirdly, like a lot of posters on this MB, they assume that any divergence between the UK and comparators is entirely due to Brexit, but during the period examined there has been wide divergence between countries in terms of the impact of the pandemic, the actions of individual governments, and speed of recovery from the pandemic. There have been countless posts on this MB about how badly the UK government has managed the pandemic relative to other countries, but then many still blame the nation's economic problems on Brexit. In fact it has become systemic to blame Brexit even though many other nations have the same economic problems and in many cases worse problems. It is also self evident that each country goes through its own economic cycle of upswings and down-swings in its economy; the whole world does not function in economic unison. Fourthly, the doppelgangers indicate there was a loss of GDP of 2.9% even before the pandemic and the UK leaving the EU. The reality is UK exports were booming in 2018 and 2019, boosted by the drop in the value of the £ following the referendum, and hardly likely to keep increasing at the pace they were in 2018 and 2019. But articles still try and draw comparison with 2019 and say any change is due to Brexit and totally ignore the pandemic effects that are still with us. Fifthly, the tweeters of the results of the doppelgangers highlight the loss in UK performance due to lower investment. Investors hesitate to invest when the future is unclear. Over three years were lost from the time of the 2016 referendum till Johnson emphatic general election victory, during which Tory governments procrastinated over Article 50, failed to get bills passed, held not one, but two general elections, and those opposed to Brexit gave succour to the EU trying to undermine progress on Brexit. Had Cameron triggered Article 50 immediately after the referendum, the result of which he promised to implement, then the UK could have been out of the EU in two years. I also believe that such expeditious action would have forced a better deal for the UK as the EU would have understood the UK was resolute and not vacillating. It is also the case that investment is cyclical and not consistent from year to year so it cannot be automatically presumed that the same investment trend would have continued had the UK voted to remain in the EU. The cyclical nature particularly applies to FDI, which can be very "lumpy" (a Mrcoke technical term) such as Google's investment in its London HQ which is a huge one off. Sixthly, the reduced goods trade is highlighted in tweets blaming Brexit, but if you dig into the detail you find the estimate for services trade is that the UK’s level is 7.9 per cent higher than that of the doppelganger, but not tweeted because "the estimate is not robust". Another example of biased analysis/reporting. The acid test is that in the real post Brexit world unlike the UK, the economies of Germany, Japan, and Italy have still not returned to their pre pandemic levels. France returned to pre pandemic GDP level in October 2021, just one month ahead of the UK despite the fact that the UK was far more adversely impacted by the pandemic than France. France's economy then declined in Q1 whilst the UK's continued to expand. We will know more about Q2 performance next week. tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdptradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-constant-pricestradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-constant-pricesIt is logical that the UK leaving the EU after nearly half a century of membership is going to cause some economic damage in the short term. This evidenced by export of fresh food and red tape selling to and importing from the EU, which hasn't impaired Northern Ireland. But the imports of goods from the EU have also dropped and benefited UK domestic sales. At the end of the day, the reality is that the the UK has left the EU and is performing satisfactorily economically compared to the rest of the G7, despite the incompetence of the present government. Dr Graham Gudgin has published a more plausible economic comparison, between the UK and the other G7 countries, which shows " no visible impact from Brexit at all." GDP in current prices in the UK " fell a little behind the G6 in 2018" (sic) but then recovered by 2019. The Covid-induced decline in 2020 was " a little deeper than the G6" (sic) and, as expected from its earlier ending of lockdowns, the UK’s recovery has been " a little faster". Gudgin's paper includes a detailed critique of the CER doppelgangers, see reference. policyexchange.org.uk/why-the-centre-for-european-reform-is-wrong-about-brexit/I've no doubt that those opposed to Brexit will continue to claim things would be better had we remained in the EU. But that is futile and impossible to know as the pandemic and war in Ukraine, what Harold Macmillan called "events", constantly bring about a changing world scene. "It is logical that the UK leaving the EU after nearly half a century of membership is going to cause some economic damage in the short term"... short term being 5, 10, 15 25 years?
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Post by wannabee on Aug 4, 2022 1:16:03 GMT
I don't disagree with a lot of what you are saying insofar as EU Countries are experiencing similar problems with inflation in Food and Energy prices due to War in Ukraine I further agree with you that this useless Government's Actions or more appropriately Inactions have exacerbated the problem making UK Consumers the hardest hit because EU countries have introduced more far reaching supports to help its people to cope with CPI increases The excuse they have used is that to do so would further fuel Inflation which is manifestly untrue as evidenced by other countries actions The attached article bears out much of what you have said but also states that UK is therefore likely to be in this situation longer and deeper www.nationalworld.com/news/uk/inflation-rates-europe-2022-how-may-uk-cpi-compares-eu-countries-germany-france-3571914What you did not address however are some of the more obvious things why Brexit has indeed contributed to inflation UK imports about 50% of Food much of it from EU On eve of Referendum Sterling was Trading at 1.30 to EURO after a massive immediate fall it has never recovered to those levels Today it's about 1.20 of a fall of almost 8% That contributes significantly to cost of imported food from EU On eve of Referendum Sterling was Trading at 1.50 to US$ today its at 1.22 almost 20% fall massively increasing cost of Energy which is Traded in US$ In an attempt to prop up Sterling and manage Interest Rates, Inflation and to try and stimulate Growth and FDI the BoE has embarked on an aggressive Quantative Easing Programme (it had been suspended pre Brexit) This has further fueled inflation A Report from HoL Committee www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/6725/documents/71894/default/&ved=2ahUKEwjfhbvT6Kr5AhUXhlwKHYNfDWoQFnoECCEQAQ&usg=AOvVaw226cDWCE3XlraAUHvI0a3uBusiness as a General Rule detest uncertainty and Brexit has provided noting but uncertainty since Referendum from will there be a deal, to what type of deal will it be to currently will there be a Trade War (As Oggy mentioned) As a direct result of this FDI has much reduced since Brexit UK still attracts a certain amount of FDI but its FAR reduced from pre Brexit Levels and indeed has fallen behind some countries from a previous dominant position www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/uk-and-global-economy-after-brexit#:~:text=Brexit%20has%20reduced%20UK%20trade,in%20the%201990s%20and%202000s. So in conclusion has Brexit contributed to UK Inflation? A Resounding YES Apologies for not posting a reply sooner but I do have another life apart from my supporting Brexit. The Mrs has gone to bed so here goes: We are agreed that government policy (such as quantitative easing) or lack of action has contributed to inflation. We will never know how much, but I would venture to suggest it is more than the difference between the UK inflation rate and the Eurozone inflation rate of 0.5%. I repeat what I have posted previously inflation is less that the EU mean by 0.2% and most EU countries' rates. tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europeYou raised the issue of food inflation attributing it to leaving the EU. Please examine this next link: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/food-inflation?continent=europeUK food inflation rate is lower the the EU, the Eurozone and most EU countries. Again it is noticeable that countries not in the EU generally have lower inflation. If leaving the EU has caused the UK to have higher inflation we would have been markedly better than the other countries. Do you really believe that? I agree that the procrastination of the May government and undermining of negotiations with the EU by those opposed to Brexit did a lot of damage to investment. But that is over now. Your link to PIIE article is illuminating in the sense of how bizarre some people's efforts are to try and prove Brexit is not working. Whilst the main meaningful measures of economic performance such as actual trade, GDP, unemployment, etc. are not quoted there are strange convoluted measures such as trade openness, foreign born population growth(!), immigrant population growth, trading relationships, etc. What do these measure actually mean in terms of impact on the country's economy? The graph of UK FDI in the link only goes to show how cyclical it is and trends should be looked at over many years not a few quarters. Organisations opposed to Brexit have continued to publish articles predicting economic ruin for over 6 years. These "mañana " articles have a number of things in common; they invariably forecast economic calamity at sometime in the future, such as "next year" or "for the next decade" or "by 2030". Since leaving the EU countless articles keep appearing blaming every national ill on Brexit, despite the fact that other countries are struggling with exactly the same issues. Another form of false propaganda are claims that other countries are performing better than the UK because we have left the EU with articles including misleading graphs without units of measurement, often meaningless percentages, and often with an arbitrary historic base point to which they have chosen to allocate 100 or zero. They never look at the trend over a decade or more. More recently articles are appearing claiming that the UK would be performing better had it chosen to remain in the EU. These articles are based on theoretical arguments using clever software, sometimes referred to as "doppelganger" models. Like Julian Jessop I grow weary of the constant misinformation, distortion, false attribution, and in some cases outright lies propagated by those opposed to Brexit. reaction.life/how-the-remainer-media-still-get-brexit-wrong-and-why-it-matters/The factual evidence I have given in my posts on the UK's post Brexit performance has demonstrated that since Brexit the UK is performing at least as well economically as the G7 members of the EU. The Financial Times is one of the regular sources of adverse Brexit comment such as " The deafening silence over Brexit’s economic fallout" article published in June. archive.ph/2022.06.20-093645/https://www.ft.com/content/7a209a34-7d95-47aa-91b0-bf02d4214764#selection-1489.0-1489.52As usual the article starts with a healthy criticism of Boris Johnson's performance to get readers onside, then talks about the fall off in investment after the referendum, but mentions no numbers, or the fact that investment as a % of GDP was increasing in 2019 before the pandemic impact: www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-kingdom/investment--nominal-gdpThat doesn't stop the FT author drawing a trend line between the peaks (not mean) points on the graph that totally ignores the fact that there has been a world pandemic and there is a war raging in Europe. In terms of business investment as a percentage of GDP the above link shows no fall off in investment after the referendum and in fact during the first half of 2019 investment peaked to its highest level since the early 1990s. This year investment in the UK is now at an all time record level. The article's only other statistical evidence provided is the new expression of "trade relationships" showing a large drop with the EU. But no mention of what actual damage it may have caused to the economy, or any actual trade values, or any reference to the increased self sufficiency of the UK, or increased relationships with non EU countries. What reduced trade relationships actually means is, for example ((for Liz Truss), we are actually exporting less cheese and buying more of our own UK cheese and importing less foreign cheese. It is a great shame to see a journal like the Financial Times sink to such a low level of prejudiced journalism. One source most commonly quoted in papers opposed to Brexit is by The Centre For European Reform, a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. Probably one of the last organizations on the planet that would like to see another country leave the EU. They say their ‘doppelgängers’ are based a basket of countries whose economic performance closely matches the UK’s before the Brexit referendum. Their workings are seriously flawed. Firstly, the UK services economy represents over 80% GDP value added as a % of employment in 2019. The USA and France are the nearest to the UK at 77%. Other countries over 80% are significantly smaller economies than the UK like The Netherlands, Sweden, Luxembourg, and Singapore. None of the world's other major economies closely match the UK. Secondly the research uses different sets of comparator countries for different variables and different comparators to earlier reports. The June 2022 CER report uses different sets of comparators for GDP, investment, and trade. Surely it is logical to make comparisons with a consistent set of countries? It is quite apparent to me that the CER are cherry picking the data that produces the end conclusion they seek. Thirdly, like a lot of posters on this MB, they assume that any divergence between the UK and comparators is entirely due to Brexit, but during the period examined there has been wide divergence between countries in terms of the impact of the pandemic, the actions of individual governments, and speed of recovery from the pandemic. There have been countless posts on this MB about how badly the UK government has managed the pandemic relative to other countries, but then many still blame the nation's economic problems on Brexit. In fact it has become systemic to blame Brexit even though many other nations have the same economic problems and in many cases worse problems. It is also self evident that each country goes through its own economic cycle of upswings and down-swings in its economy; the whole world does not function in economic unison. Fourthly, the doppelgangers indicate there was a loss of GDP of 2.9% even before the pandemic and the UK leaving the EU. The reality is UK exports were booming in 2018 and 2019, boosted by the drop in the value of the £ following the referendum, and hardly likely to keep increasing at the pace they were in 2018 and 2019. But articles still try and draw comparison with 2019 and say any change is due to Brexit and totally ignore the pandemic effects that are still with us. Fifthly, the tweeters of the results of the doppelgangers highlight the loss in UK performance due to lower investment. Investors hesitate to invest when the future is unclear. Over three years were lost from the time of the 2016 referendum till Johnson emphatic general election victory, during which Tory governments procrastinated over Article 50, failed to get bills passed, held not one, but two general elections, and those opposed to Brexit gave succour to the EU trying to undermine progress on Brexit. Had Cameron triggered Article 50 immediately after the referendum, the result of which he promised to implement, then the UK could have been out of the EU in two years. I also believe that such expeditious action would have forced a better deal for the UK as the EU would have understood the UK was resolute and not vacillating. It is also the case that investment is cyclical and not consistent from year to year so it cannot be automatically presumed that the same investment trend would have continued had the UK voted to remain in the EU. The cyclical nature particularly applies to FDI, which can be very "lumpy" (a Mrcoke technical term) such as Google's investment in its London HQ which is a huge one off. Sixthly, the reduced goods trade is highlighted in tweets blaming Brexit, but if you dig into the detail you find the estimate for services trade is that the UK’s level is 7.9 per cent higher than that of the doppelganger, but not tweeted because "the estimate is not robust". Another example of biased analysis/reporting. The acid test is that in the real post Brexit world unlike the UK, the economies of Germany, Japan, and Italy have still not returned to their pre pandemic levels. France returned to pre pandemic GDP level in October 2021, just one month ahead of the UK despite the fact that the UK was far more adversely impacted by the pandemic than France. France's economy then declined in Q1 whilst the UK's continued to expand. We will know more about Q2 performance next week. tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdptradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-constant-pricestradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-constant-pricesIt is logical that the UK leaving the EU after nearly half a century of membership is going to cause some economic damage in the short term. This evidenced by export of fresh food and red tape selling to and importing from the EU, which hasn't impaired Northern Ireland. But the imports of goods from the EU have also dropped and benefited UK domestic sales. At the end of the day, the reality is that the the UK has left the EU and is performing satisfactorily economically compared to the rest of the G7, despite the incompetence of the present government. Dr Graham Gudgin has published a more plausible economic comparison, between the UK and the other G7 countries, which shows " no visible impact from Brexit at all." GDP in current prices in the UK " fell a little behind the G6 in 2018" (sic) but then recovered by 2019. The Covid-induced decline in 2020 was " a little deeper than the G6" (sic) and, as expected from its earlier ending of lockdowns, the UK’s recovery has been " a little faster". Gudgin's paper includes a detailed critique of the CER doppelgangers, see reference. policyexchange.org.uk/why-the-centre-for-european-reform-is-wrong-about-brexit/I've no doubt that those opposed to Brexit will continue to claim things would be better had we remained in the EU. But that is futile and impossible to know as the pandemic and war in Ukraine, what Harold Macmillan called "events", constantly bring about a changing world scene. Thanks for your response I too tend to post late at night for similar reasons I think we may look at things through a different prism on some, but not all things, not a bad thing in itself and only time will tell No need to for me to respond in detail but just a few points for clarification With regard to food and inflation It's irrelevant iwhat Food Prices are in EU in fact increases only add to the problem. The point was that Sterling lost value to EURO after Referendum and has never recovered Today it's about 8% lower in Purchasing Power we roughly source 30% of Food from EU so again approximately this would have about a 2,5% effect on Food Inflation. Whatever the overall headline number for inflation may be The effect on Food for Lower Income Households who spend a proportionally higher amount on Food is far worse Regarding FDI I don't accept either the procrastination or uncertainty is in anyway over. If Liz stays on course we are likely to see things come to a head relatively soon. With either the progression of the Northern-ireland Protocol Bill or the EU litigation reaching Court against UK whichever comes first I do not see EU climbing down and I don’t think Liz can climb down and mediation/talks have been suspended by UK since February. The most likely initial response from EU if NI Bill becomes law would be targeted Tarrifs as a first step. But which Products/Industries if your business was looking at the prospect of Tariffs, uncertainty or supply chain issues would you plough on with Investment or wait to see outcome? I believe the charts tracing FDI are quite telling it shows over a long period of time UKs ability to attract FDI much more successfully than its peers now eroded since Brexit Time will tell if it cyclical One of the puzzlements of Brexit so far is that UK Exports to EU in value has more or less remained the same while Imports from EU have reduced quite substantially while UK has imposed no checks/impediments to Imports Obviously these Imports have been substituted from ROW While it is a good thing that UK Export Values to EU have remained unchanged about one third of ALL Exporters have stopped exporting to EU entirely These are smaller Companies that simply can't cope with the expense or administration If they can't cope exporting to EU they will have same problem to ROW. Therefore these Companies must restrict to Domestic Market inhabiting their ability to grow. Larger Companies have been able to absorb the cost and administration but once upon a time these companies were small. I have mentioned this to you before and you didn't see a problem nor do you now. Personally I see it as a major problem as it could severely hamper small companies particularly those in the area of evolving technologies from growing MacMillan also said "It is the duty of Her Majesty's Government neither to flap nor to falter" Oh for a wish for it be true today
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