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Post by gawa on Oct 12, 2022 9:52:49 GMT
Expected Goals Table 9th October 2022 Is the simple conclusion here that WBA have been unlucky? Or terrible at finishing? Tachyon explains it quite well below. Seems to be that because they go behind quite frequently, the opposition then sit back more and try to defend the lead. And this then leads to WBA registering more expected goals than the opposition.
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Post by walrus on Oct 12, 2022 12:19:05 GMT
I’m fully on board with the concept of Expected goals but really have to doubt the application when Wilmot is given a higher XG than Delap for the Sheff Utd game. Both were big chances, but Delap's had a bigger pre shot xG than Wilmot, not smaller. View AttachmentBarring penalties, LD's goal is the biggest chance we've created all season. Chances from crosses have alot of outcome bias associated with their xG. When everything goes right, (pace of cross, player/keeper positioning, contact etc) they look easy. Two minutes previously, LD had a near post chance where he was pressured & he failed to register an xG by a whisker. We try not to overfit to the specific chance because that is generally more predictive. Include post shot data (placement, power, specific opposition pressure etc, which does overfit to the actual chance) and Delap's so called xG2 rises to around 0.95. The post shot xG of all three goals was 0.65 (Wilmot), 0.57 (Jags) and 0.95 (Delap). That all makes sense, but Gawa’s posted stats for the Sheff Utd game give Wilmot’s XG as 0.6 and Delap’s as 0.5. I don’t think either of them had another shot, so safe to conclude that those are the XGs for their two goals. I know that various data sources calculate XG differently, but what’s gone so badly wrong in the source Gawa posted that what you say is a 0.95 chance is put down as a 0.5 chance?
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Post by tachyon on Oct 12, 2022 13:09:02 GMT
That all makes sense, but Gawa’s posted stats for the Sheff Utd game give Wilmot’s XG as 0.6 and Delap’s as 0.5. I don’t think either of them had another shot, so safe to conclude that those are the XGs for their two goals. Wilmot had two attempts. The goal (0.49 xG) & the weird sliced shot in the first half following a corner (0.05 xG). Attachment DeletedBen (experimental361) does the xG that Gawa originally quoted where BW's two shots > LD's one. Ben's xG stuff is for the Press Association, I think he models xG by scraping match reports and using key words from that source (header/shot/penalty area/six yard box, that kind of thing).
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Post by gawa on Oct 12, 2022 14:34:50 GMT
Both were big chances, but Delap's had a bigger pre shot xG than Wilmot, not smaller. View AttachmentBarring penalties, LD's goal is the biggest chance we've created all season. Chances from crosses have alot of outcome bias associated with their xG. When everything goes right, (pace of cross, player/keeper positioning, contact etc) they look easy. Two minutes previously, LD had a near post chance where he was pressured & he failed to register an xG by a whisker. We try not to overfit to the specific chance because that is generally more predictive. Include post shot data (placement, power, specific opposition pressure etc, which does overfit to the actual chance) and Delap's so called xG2 rises to around 0.95. The post shot xG of all three goals was 0.65 (Wilmot), 0.57 (Jags) and 0.95 (Delap). That all makes sense, but Gawa’s posted stats for the Sheff Utd game give Wilmot’s XG as 0.6 and Delap’s as 0.5. I don’t think either of them had another shot, so safe to conclude that those are the XGs for their two goals. I know that various data sources calculate XG differently, but what’s gone so badly wrong in the source Gawa posted that what you say is a 0.95 chance is put down as a 0.5 chance? Different sites calculate xG slightly differently. There is a slight difference between what I put in my table and the time lines which I post. I use infogol for the table. But the person who supllies the time lines uses a different source. Which results in slight disprencies. Plus that xG for Wilmot adds up all his opportunities in the time line rather than being based off one chance.
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Post by walrus on Oct 12, 2022 16:22:53 GMT
That’s all well and good but the Wilmot stuff is really secondary to the pertinent question, which is how an expected goals model can think that any open goal from four yards out is a 50-50 score/miss chance.
My takeaway here is that not all expected goals reporting is created equal and we need to choose our sources carefully to get the best insight.
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Post by gawa on Oct 16, 2022 2:18:46 GMT
Average Ratings Based on Oatcake Player Rating Threads (to be completed)Player | Milwall | Blackpool | Huddersfield | Middlesbrough | Sunderland | Blackburn | Swansea | Reading | Hull | QPR | Watford | Burnley | Sheffield United | Preston | Games Played | Average |
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Connor Taylor | 6.9 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 6.9 | | | | | 10 | 6.12 | Morgan Fox | | | | | | 7.5 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 6.8 | | | | | 5 | 6.44 | Jack Bonham | | | | | | 7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | | | | | | | 4 | 5.90 | Josh Laurent | 5.7 | 6.7 | 5.2 | | | | | | | 6 | | | | | 3 | 5.87 | Jacob Brown | 5.9 | 7 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 6 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 7.2 | | | | | | 9 | 5.96 | Lewis Baker | 5 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 8.8 | 6.2 | | | | | 10 | 6.07 | Dwight Gayle | 4.9 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 6 | 5.6 | | 7.4 | 6.8 | | | | | 9 | 5.97 | Gavin Kilkenny | 4.7 | | | 5.9 | 6.2 | | | | | | | | | | 3 | 5.60 | Tariqe Fosu | | | | 5.1 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 6 | 6.3 | | | | | 7 | 5.76 | Tyrese Campbell | 5.7 | | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 7 | 4.3 | | 6.4 | | | | | 8 | 5.68 | Josef Bursik | 6.9 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | | | | 7.1 | 7.9 | | | | | 7 | 6.10 | Liam Delap | | | | | 5.9 | 6 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 5.4 | | | | | 6 | 5.75 | Nick Powell | | | | | | | | 5.5 | 6.4 | 6.6 | | | | | 3 | 6.17 | Harrison Clarke | 3.7 | 7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2 | 5.35 | Phil Jagielka | | | | 5.4 | 5.3 | | | | | | | | | | 2 | 5.35 | Aden Flint | 4.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | | | 7.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 7.4 | | | | | 6 | 5.33 | William Smallbone | 5.3 | 7 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 4.4 | | 6.4 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 6.2 | | | | | 9 | 5.56 | Jordan Thompson | | | | 4.9 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 5.1 | | | 6.4 | | | | | 5 | 5.52 | Josh Tymon | 3.8 | 7.6 | 4.4 | | | | | | 7.4 | | | | | | 4 | 5.80 | Ben Wilmot | 3.8 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.9 |
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| 10 | 5.60 | Tom Sparrow |
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| 4.4 | 5.4 |
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| 2 | 4.90 | D'Margio Wright-Phillips
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| 6.1 | 5.2 | 3.5 |
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| 4 | 4.75 | Sam Clucas | 4.9 |
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| 3.6 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 4.2 |
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| 6 | 4.67 | Dujon Sterling |
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Post by gawa on Oct 16, 2022 12:03:44 GMT
Updated above sheet with a couple more ratings from games. Shame there isn't an easy way to re-sort the table
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Post by gawa on Oct 29, 2022 16:09:56 GMT
Updated the thread with the last few games as last update was after Preston.
Still awaiting infolgol to finalise the stats for the Norwich game, so will update that later.
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Post by gawa on Oct 29, 2022 16:13:07 GMT
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Post by gawa on Nov 1, 2022 15:21:34 GMT
Saturday's timeline added now too.
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