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Post by FullerMagic on Aug 15, 2022 10:05:20 GMT
Yeah - I cannot see any way that figure is anywhere near right. I don't think any of these financial figures on the net are any more than guesswork It'll be somewhere in the 20s - and still very, very competitive. And as Chiswick says, who's very good on the finances, every penny we're allowed to spend towards our max loss will be spent, which is unusual in this division. Every club in the league is facing a similar financial fight, and has the same degree of churn. His hands aren't tied any more than any other manager. Look at the comments of Nathan Jones www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/luton-bristol-city-kal-naismith-7270853or Michael Beale www.westlondonsport.com/qpr/qpr-may-need-players-to-leave-in-order-to-sign-striker-beale-suggests about the challenges they face. Every club has got a very similar woe-is-me story. That's just Championship management - it's mainly loans, frees, nominal fees and a very rare £1m fee on low wages. Has he had to slash the wage bill? Obviously he has, but most of that is just common sense in moving massively underperforming veterans on unsustainable contracts off the wage bill as soon as that becomes possible, either when they are out of contract or when they enter their final year, and replacing them on a sustainable, but still competitive budget. We are not shedding talent that we can't replace The main problem is his failure to create a functioning team on the grass despite being the 4th longest serving manager in the division
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Post by tachyon on Aug 15, 2022 10:05:37 GMT
The attacking process is consistent, if not slightly improved from previous Championship seasons.
3 or 4 games is a tiny sample size. Three actual goals or fewer from around 7 xG happens around 10% of the time. (Strip out Morecambe and it happens 34% of the time, so 8 Championship teams would have our level of league under-performance merely by chance after 3 games).
Also under-performing our attacking xG hasn't been an issue in the previous 123 MON league games, so you're most likely looking at random variation. You can't alter what you can't control.
Our attacking xG is up, not down & poor conversion is likely just "noise".
Defensively, there is more of an issue.
We're allowing around the same quality and quantity of chances for a typical MON team, but it's just a 2% chance we concede 5 or more goals from the post shot xG of 2.54 (for on target attempts).
That's a recurring issue since 20/21, we're keeping chances well contained, but often they aren't being saved at anywhere near Championship level performance.
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Post by gawa on Aug 15, 2022 10:09:20 GMT
Great, honest, precise OP. I would pull gawa up though when he seems to blame Bursik too much. When you have defenders making terrible errors in front of you then you won't put him in the best of light. Time to judge him properly when he has defenders defending better in front of him. Young Taylor is a tremendous prospect and I can't wait to see him and Souttar as our central defensive pairing. Up front, it's as plain as the nose on your face that when the ball starts running a bit more kindly for him, Gayle will be knocking them in on a regular basis. On the downside, the support for MON has waned to the point with many supporters that we'll soon see him gone if results don't improve and he'll be gone just like many before him, and we may appoint another dud, just like we've appointed the many duds we've had before him. Old age has taught me to be a pragmatist and someone who takes a holistic view of things. Given what he did when he first arrived and the way he's handled the dire FFP situation we find ourselves as a club in, although I'm not enjoying some of our performances last season and this, He's still got money in the bank for me. OS. Sorry haven't read your full post. But on Bursik I agree I am more critical of him than most. And I actually think at Millwall and Blackpool he did pretty well. The conceded goals being higher than the expected is not solely down to him and like you said alot of the errors leading to goal scoring opportunities is out of his control. I know I have a bias on certain players and managers and I hold my hand up that I'm probably softer than most of O'Neill and more critical than most of Bursik. (will read the rest now)
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Post by gawa on Aug 15, 2022 10:13:45 GMT
The attacking process is consistent, if not slightly improved from previous Championship seasons. 3 or 4 games is a tiny sample size. Three actual goals or fewer from around 7 xG happens around 10% of the time. (Strip out Morecambe and it happens 34% of the time, so 8 Championship teams would have our level of league under-performance merely by chance after 3 games). Also under-performing our attacking xG hasn't been an issue in the previous 123 MON league games, so you're most likely looking at random variation. You can't alter what you can't control. Our attacking xG is up, not down & poor conversion is likely just "noise". Defensively, there is more of an issue. We're allowing around the same quality and quantity of chances for a typical MON team, but it's just a 2% chance we concede 5 or more goals from the post shot xG of 2.54 (for on target attempts). That's a recurring issue since 20/21, we're keeping chances well contained, but often they aren't being saved at anywhere near Championship level performance. I think you need to consider the squad retention here though too. 3 or 4 games is a small sample size compared to the managers full tenure. But this squad only played 55% of our minutes last season too. So if our expected goals has improved then surely the new signings may be a contributing factor. That statistic there on the defence is crazy though that there would only be a 2% chance of conceding that many goals. And most worrisome about that is that it can't even be attributed to just one player on the back line either.
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Post by peterpan1 on Aug 15, 2022 10:17:38 GMT
Can I highlight please that this thread is about the team. There are plenty of threads out there to dicuss Michael O'Neill. And of course he is part of the squad and should be discussed here too. But this is more just a general thread of all things 4 games in. So let's discuss shots and shots on target. Last season we only managed 18 shots or more in 4 games. We won 3 of those and drew the other. Last season we managed 5 shots or more on target in 16 games. Of those 16 games, we won 14 and drew 2. I think from an attacking point of view we're actually being alot more creative if the last 3 games are anything to go by, and we should be putting alot more chances away. Defense is the bigger issue for me. But to be honest in our first 300 minutes of football this season we did not conceded a single goal from open play. So when it comes to the basics I don't think we were doing that bad. But as Saturday shows we are one or two injuries away from playing players out of their natural position. And there are still question marks over Bursik. It just feels like the defence and goalkeeper have mistakes in them and are a bit too nervy. Source - fbref.com/en/squads/17892952/2021-2022/matchlogs/all_comps/shooting/Stoke-City-Match-Logs-All-CompetitionsEdit: One last thing. While it's annoying to concede 3 goals from set plays. It's better than 5 from open play and I feel it's easier to coach those mistakes out of the players than if we are getting pulled apart by teams in normal play. Our set pieces have been atrocious for 2 yrs plus and we can't defend the oppositions set pieces.....what exactly have we been doing in training ?
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Post by tachyon on Aug 15, 2022 10:24:46 GMT
That statistic there on the defence is crazy though that there would only be a 2% chance of conceding that many goals. And most worrisome about that is that it can't even be attributed to just one player on the back line either. Unfortunately, post shot xG, is attributable to a single player. Left side combinations have been our xG for driver.
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Post by jokker on Aug 15, 2022 10:31:11 GMT
The attacking process is consistent, if not slightly improved from previous Championship seasons. 3 or 4 games is a tiny sample size. Three actual goals or fewer from around 7 xG happens around 10% of the time. (Strip out Morecambe and it happens 34% of the time, so 8 Championship teams would have our level of league under-performance merely by chance after 3 games). As it happens they even do, as we're 16th, a familar position in recent years, with 9 teams below us, of which one team has played one less. It's also the same old friends around us, with one major exception. We're not used to seeing Norwich in such a lowly place, but as you imply 3 games is a tiny indication of what the season might look like.
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Post by FullerMagic on Aug 15, 2022 10:42:17 GMT
Hmm. Tachyon's post-shot XG comments don't make good reading about Bursik. Only 3 games in, but after being right down at the bottom last year, he's again not in the top 20 in Opta's 'Goals Prevented' metric theanalyst.com/eu/2022/08/english-championship-stats-2022-23/ (he's 23rd out of 24 with just the Reading keeper below him)
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Post by lordherefordsknob on Aug 15, 2022 10:43:21 GMT
4 Games in - My assessment = shit.
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Post by gawa on Aug 15, 2022 10:43:55 GMT
The attacking process is consistent, if not slightly improved from previous Championship seasons. 3 or 4 games is a tiny sample size. Three actual goals or fewer from around 7 xG happens around 10% of the time. (Strip out Morecambe and it happens 34% of the time, so 8 Championship teams would have our level of league under-performance merely by chance after 3 games). As it happens they even do, as we're 16th, a familar position in recent years, with 9 teams below us, of which one team has played one less. It's also the same old friends around us, with one major exception. We're not used to seeing Norwich in such a lowly place, but as you imply 3 games is a tiny indication of what the season might look like. What do you mean by the same old friends around us? As in teams usually near the bottom or teams we finished close to last year? Coventry, Boro, WBA and Luton were all contending for playoffs last season. Only Reading, Bristol and Blackpool out of the 8 below us I'd call relegation fodder. Norwich need to buck up their ideas quick or they aren't going to be bouncing back up to the premiership this year. They've actually had very favourable fixtures too - www.theleaguepaper.com/latest-news/football-league-championship/383612/championship-fixtures-2022-23-promotion-hopefuls-handed-tough-starts/Middlesborough on the other, like WBA, have had difficult opening fixtures and I expect them to begin to climb the table. But hopefully not this week.
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Post by Gods on Aug 15, 2022 10:51:11 GMT
Hmm. Tachyon's post-shot XG comments don't make good reading about Bursik. Only 3 games in, but after being right down at the bottom last year, he's again not in the top 20 in Opta's 'Goals Prevented' metric theanalyst.com/eu/2022/08/english-championship-stats-2022-23/ (he's 23rd out of 24 with just the Reading keeper below him) I like the 'Zones of Control', Burnley, Cov City and Swansea have been absolutely bossing it. Does it count for anything over the course of a season? Who knows...
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Post by wakefieldstokie on Aug 15, 2022 11:31:00 GMT
73.6% Of All Statistics Are Made Up.
MON needs to be replaced, stats are great but 5pm Saturday was the time a lot of Stoke fans 'felt' it was time for a change, myself included.
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Post by thevoid on Aug 15, 2022 12:44:06 GMT
In a funny sort of way I agree. I’ve been to 1 home game, it was fairly enjoyable, we won. Couple of opportunities in the next week to either cement that or for my contentment to be turned on it’s head. No doubt if I’ve been to twice as many home games that weren’t enjoyable as enjoyable ones I’ll feel much the same as I did before. Obviously I’ve lots of opinions on all sorts of matters but in reality the home games, performances and outcomes are my sole barometer. I was being sarcastic, it’s Gawa’s latest attempt to convince us all that we shouldn’t be beastly to his idol. Things may well turn out to be fine but his suggestion that we’re better than we actually are is based on a sample of three games (we’re not counting Millwall for some reason), one of which came against 10-man Morecambe. I take the point that we’re creating chances, which is encouraging, but I think we need a fair few more games before we can make that kind of hypothesis. I prefer march's fixations over TP, at least he doesn't feel the need to produce a bigger body of work than Proust to get his point across
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Post by The Toxic Avenger on Aug 15, 2022 12:51:10 GMT
I was being sarcastic, it’s Gawa’s latest attempt to convince us all that we shouldn’t be beastly to his idol. Things may well turn out to be fine but his suggestion that we’re better than we actually are is based on a sample of three games (we’re not counting Millwall for some reason), one of which came against 10-man Morecambe. I take the point that we’re creating chances, which is encouraging, but I think we need a fair few more games before we can make that kind of hypothesis. I prefer march's fixations over TP, at least he doesn't feel the need to produce a bigger body of work than Proust to get his point across Just for a change it'd be nice for someone to be a militant acolyte of a different random former manager. Maybe someone could have a go at a nice bit of revisionist history on Chic Bates or something?
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Post by gawa on Aug 15, 2022 13:03:24 GMT
Why do the same characters make every thread about the manager. There are about 5 different threads to discuss him.
If Sam Allardyce came in tomorrow, 90% of this content is still relevant.
Talk about the wage budget
The transfers made
Squad retention and its impact
How we compare attacking wise from last season
Why were taking less chances than expected
Why our first 3 goals conceded in 300 minutes of football where all from set plays.
What positions we need in the last few weeks of the window.
How there is only a 2% chance of coneeding 5 goals from the chances we've given away.
Why we can only keep a ckeansheet when we nullify the opponent to 0 shots on target.
Why there is no depth in certain positions.
Whether the Kilkenny transfer was a waste or not.
Why alot of our expected goals are falling to defenders.
Why we've been so bad at defending set prices. Expected to concede one compared to the three we have.
Whether the board/manager will change their stance on 2 more signings.
Etc.. Etc..
Or. Let's make it another thread to obsess over Michael O'Neill and discuss the same topics and regurgitate the same strong opinions certain people have held well before this season began.
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Post by The Toxic Avenger on Aug 15, 2022 13:17:27 GMT
Why do the same characters make every thread about the manager. There are about 5 different threads to discuss him. If Sam Allardyce came in tomorrow, 90% of this content is still relevant. Talk about the wage budget The transfers made Squad retention and its impact How we compare attacking wise from last season Why were taking less chances than expected Why our first 3 goals conceded in 300 minutes of football where all from set plays. What positions we need in the last few weeks of the window. How there is only a 2% chance of coneeding 5 goals from the chances we've given away. Why we can only keep a ckeansheet when we nullify the opponent to 0 shots on target. Why there is no depth in certain positions. Whether the Kilkenny transfer was a waste or not. Why alot of our expected goals are falling to defenders. Why we've been so bad at defending set prices. Expected to concede one compared to the three we have. Whether the board/manager will change their stance on 2 more signings. Etc.. Etc.. Or. Let's make it another thread to obsess over Michael O'Neill and discuss the same topics and regurgitate the same strong opinions certain people have held well before this season began. How can it not be about the manager when he's at the heart of both everything good and bad we see and is also your self-confessed raison d'etre for being here in the first place? Pretty much all of the stuff in your list above pertains to him one way or the other doesn't it? He can't be removed from them as if he's not a factor, for better or for worse?
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Post by Gods on Aug 15, 2022 14:17:30 GMT
I prefer march's fixations over TP, at least he doesn't feel the need to produce a bigger body of work than Proust to get his point across Just for a change it'd be nice for someone to be a militant acolyte of a different random former manager. Maybe someone could have a go at a nice bit of revisionist history on Chic Bates or something? Surely a challenge too far for anyone?
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Post by thevoid on Aug 15, 2022 14:20:38 GMT
Why do the same characters make every thread about the manager. There are about 5 different threads to discuss him. If Sam Allardyce came in tomorrow, 90% of this content is still relevant. Talk about the wage budget The transfers made Squad retention and its impact How we compare attacking wise from last season Why were taking less chances than expected Why our first 3 goals conceded in 300 minutes of football where all from set plays. What positions we need in the last few weeks of the window. How there is only a 2% chance of coneeding 5 goals from the chances we've given away. Why we can only keep a ckeansheet when we nullify the opponent to 0 shots on target. Why there is no depth in certain positions. Whether the Kilkenny transfer was a waste or not. Why alot of our expected goals are falling to defenders. Why we've been so bad at defending set prices. Expected to concede one compared to the three we have. Whether the board/manager will change their stance on 2 more signings. Etc.. Etc.. Or. Let's make it another thread to obsess over Michael O'Neill and discuss the same topics and regurgitate the same strong opinions certain people have held well before this season began. Not sure how we can analyse the four games without discussing the manager. Also not sure why you keep wetting your knickers when he gets mentioned, especially as, as has been pointed out by rvd, you only have an interest in Stoke because of him? Do you spend as much time on the Crusaders forum pal? 😀
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Post by gawa on Aug 15, 2022 14:57:43 GMT
Why do the same characters make every thread about the manager. There are about 5 different threads to discuss him. If Sam Allardyce came in tomorrow, 90% of this content is still relevant. Talk about the wage budget The transfers made Squad retention and its impact How we compare attacking wise from last season Why were taking less chances than expected Why our first 3 goals conceded in 300 minutes of football where all from set plays. What positions we need in the last few weeks of the window. How there is only a 2% chance of coneeding 5 goals from the chances we've given away. Why we can only keep a ckeansheet when we nullify the opponent to 0 shots on target. Why there is no depth in certain positions. Whether the Kilkenny transfer was a waste or not. Why alot of our expected goals are falling to defenders. Why we've been so bad at defending set prices. Expected to concede one compared to the three we have. Whether the board/manager will change their stance on 2 more signings. Etc.. Etc.. Or. Let's make it another thread to obsess over Michael O'Neill and discuss the same topics and regurgitate the same strong opinions certain people have held well before this season began. Not sure how we can analyse the four games without discussing the manager. Also not sure why you keep wetting your knickers when he gets mentioned, especially as, as has been pointed out by rvd, you only have an interest in Stoke because of him? Do you spend as much time on the Crusaders forum pal? 😀 whatever. Not rising to it. Crusaders forum going well. Good 5-1 victory at the weekend. Maybe Stoke need to get Stanley Baxter in to replace O'Neill. Think he may also be the longest serving manager in the UK atm now.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2022 15:32:35 GMT
My assessment is we don't like it if teams press us high up the pitch and get stuck into us .
We are happiest, when teams stand off us and let us play our game ( Blackpool)
This is not going to happen very often. Even Blackpool's manager was fuming at his own players for ' showing Stoke too much respect '
Teams ( Accrington Stanley, Millwall, Huddersfield etc ) know how to play us .
To put a cherry on it, MoN is not one for changing tactics during the game and likes to stick to the plan , even when the plan is not working.
Oh and it's always the same plan !
It's going to be a long season
Unless MoN goes or MoN changes into another more positive person, it going to be more of the same.
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Post by iamstokie on Aug 15, 2022 15:36:32 GMT
There’s only two important stats and that’s the score after 90 mins and points on the board , all the rest are irrelevant, stats mean fuck all imo
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Post by Gods on Aug 15, 2022 17:38:23 GMT
There’s only two important stats and that’s the score after 90 mins and points on the board , all the rest are irrelevant, stats mean fuck all imo Because you can't just 'fix the results' All you can do is get better at the factors that go to make up the result and hope the results take care of themselves. With all the stats available today to tell you if you are getting the essentials right you'd be a fool to ignore them. They won't be ignoring the non-results stats at Manchester City.
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Post by dingbat on Aug 15, 2022 18:35:57 GMT
It’s frustration talk which is understandable. We are only 3 games in, the transfer window is still open. MON has a contract till end of this season - 2023. 10 games in, we will have an idea. Come the New Year we will know.
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Post by trincostokie on Aug 15, 2022 20:34:27 GMT
Brilliant OP...thanks for the time and massive effort that must've gone into posting it Gawa
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Post by bayernoatcake on Aug 15, 2022 20:37:36 GMT
Wank
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Post by tommycarlsberg on Aug 15, 2022 20:43:00 GMT
Why do the same characters make every thread about the manager. There are about 5 different threads to discuss him. If Sam Allardyce came in tomorrow, 90% of this content is still relevant. Talk about the wage budget The transfers made Squad retention and its impact How we compare attacking wise from last season Why were taking less chances than expected Why our first 3 goals conceded in 300 minutes of football where all from set plays. What positions we need in the last few weeks of the window. How there is only a 2% chance of coneeding 5 goals from the chances we've given away. Why we can only keep a ckeansheet when we nullify the opponent to 0 shots on target. Why there is no depth in certain positions. Whether the Kilkenny transfer was a waste or not. Why alot of our expected goals are falling to defenders. Why we've been so bad at defending set prices. Expected to concede one compared to the three we have. Whether the board/manager will change their stance on 2 more signings. Etc.. Etc.. Or. Let's make it another thread to obsess over Michael O'Neill and discuss the same topics and regurgitate the same strong opinions certain people have held well before this season began. Not sure how we can analyse the four games without discussing the manager. Also not sure why you keep wetting your knickers when he gets mentioned, especially as, as has been pointed out by rvd, you only have an interest in Stoke because of him? Do you spend as much time on the Crusaders forum pal? 😀 He’s a United fan.
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