|
Post by wannabee on May 16, 2024 16:32:58 GMT
It's not quite the same. China will have to be very careful of what they do. Their economy is dependent on exports to the western countries that Putin wants China to go against. Biden has already hiked tariffs on Chinese electric cars and if Trump gets in, he'll massively hike up tariffs on Chinese goods given half a reason to do so. Xi Jinping is no fool. OS. I agree China has no particular interest in Geographic expansion, except perhaps Taiwan which you could compare with Crimes. Putin's ambitions are far greater to restore the Russian Empire with its satellite Countries For Political Advantage Rishi was channeling his inner Mussolini with his "Axis of Authoritarian States" speech although he's not actually going to meet the 2.5% Target until 2030 but that my be good enough for the hard of thinking. It also echoes George Bushes "Axis of Evil".... that went well
|
|
|
Post by cvillestokie on May 16, 2024 16:45:58 GMT
China are always the big bad guy. Such a big bad guy that is always at war. Except, it isn’t. Also, while they have an economy that most countries would only dream of, it’s had a good spanking over housing, which is one it major revenue makers. Further, its workforce are increasingly challenging the dogma of hyper-competitiveness. I think it’s having a nice time playing Switzerland to be honest.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on May 16, 2024 21:27:21 GMT
Ukrainian missiles hit a fuel tank and aircraft parking area at Belbek air base in occupied Crimea.
Sadly the satellite images aren't good enough to tell if aircraft were actually hit. Maybe they had been moved.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on May 16, 2024 23:44:35 GMT
Good quality pics show at least 3 russian jets wrecked in last night's ATACMS hits. Another one looks done for.
I think this is the third ATACMS strike confirmed to do over $100 million in damage. Several others had good evidence, and there's another video of a cluster warhead seemingly hitting 100+ russians in a field.
|
|
|
Post by scfcno1fan on May 17, 2024 7:42:25 GMT
Everything I’m reading seems to be pointing massively to Russia in the ascendancy?
Another few months and Kharkiv could be taken?
Worrying if Russia keeps taking more and more land.
No chance in the long term Putin just stops with Ukraine?
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on May 17, 2024 18:02:58 GMT
Russians preparing forces near Sumy, a city northwest of Kharkiv that the russians fled from in 2022.
Ukraine was able to take out a couple of tanks.
|
|
|
Post by questionable on May 17, 2024 20:18:11 GMT
Russians preparing forces near Sumy, a city northwest of Kharkiv that the russians fled from in 2022. Ukraine was able to take out a couple of tanks. Incredible footage on X in that dozens and I mean dozens of Ukrainian drones hammering Russian naval yards/Oil refineries and airfields, completely picking targets at ease, no Russian AD whatsoever. There’s also loads of video of Russian troops being torn to pieces by Ukrainian drones.
|
|
|
Post by hcstokie on May 17, 2024 21:03:53 GMT
Everything I’m reading seems to be pointing massively to Russia in the ascendancy? Another few months and Kharkiv could be taken? Worrying if Russia keeps taking more and more land. No chance in the long term Putin just stops with Ukraine? I don’t think that’s the case at all, and Putin himself has said they will be unable to take Kharkiv with this offensive. They do not have the manpower or resources to take it, with estimates suggesting they’d need at least 300k troops to do so. Their tactics are also telling, relying heavily on light infantry instead of armour. In my opinion, it’s merely a distraction to try and strip Ukrainian resources from the eastern front, much in the same way that the Ukrainian bridgeheads in Kherson are pinning Russians there. The consensus is the main Russian push this summer will be in the east. It’s going to be an interesting few months, with the use of Ukrainian missile strikes seemingly becoming more prevalent and their western allies suggesting they could potentially use supplied arms to target Russian territory. I think Ukraine are hammering air defences and Russian aviation in Crimea with the ultimate goal of destroying the Kirsch bridge in the coming months. Do that, and the logistics situation for Russian in Crimea and southern Ukraine becomes a nightmare.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on May 18, 2024 2:03:08 GMT
Everything I’m reading seems to be pointing massively to Russia in the ascendancy? Another few months and Kharkiv could be taken? Worrying if Russia keeps taking more and more land. No chance in the long term Putin just stops with Ukraine? Russian propaganda is all in on trying to persuade people that russia can't be stopped... but that's bullshit. I think journalists also tend to look a bit for Hollywood style drama, and russia advancing over some fields and bombing the shit out of new villages is very visual. The headlines usually forget to account for reality though. Since October, russia's taken ~0.1% more of Ukraine's land, and lost so many tanks that they'll have to empty 25% of their remaining storages to replace them. At this rate they'll run out of stored tanks and other mainline vehicles (like BMPs) after taking about 0.4% of Ukraine... The Republicans' pro-Putin blockade opened up a massive window for Putin, he's throwing everything in to exploit that and it's possible Ukraine will crack. There's too much fog of war to know for sure but I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine has to retreat from a much bigger slice of land this summer, but will then stabilise things as replacement ammo and troops arrive.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on May 18, 2024 2:24:13 GMT
Everything I’m reading seems to be pointing massively to Russia in the ascendancy? Another few months and Kharkiv could be taken? Worrying if Russia keeps taking more and more land. No chance in the long term Putin just stops with Ukraine? Oh, and some context for Kharkiv. Comparing populations with British places. 1. 2022: 2-3 months to conquer Mariupol, about the size of Stoke-on-Trent. 2. 2022/23: 6 months to conquer Bakhmut, about the size of Barnsley. 3. 2023/24: 4+ months to conquer Avdiivka, about the size of Kidsgrove. Kharkiv's bigger than Birmingham. In Avdiivka, the russians only succeeded in ~4 months because the Ukrainians used up their European ammo and when they tried to switch to American supplies, the MAGA republicans blockaded them so there was nothing. Russians could safely kill more Ukrainians and it forced the defenders to retreat. Not sure how long it'll take for Ukraine to replenish its troops and ammo, but hopefully a few more months. Oh and around Avdiivka, russia lost over 1,000 armoured vehicles. A russian propagandist blogger even said russia lost 3x as many troops as Ukraine did, and you'd think he'd put a pro-russian spin on things. We can't ask him now though, he has since been suicided.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on May 18, 2024 2:30:31 GMT
I don’t think that’s the case at all, and Putin himself has said they will be unable to take Kharkiv with this offensive. They do not have the manpower or resources to take it, with estimates suggesting they’d need at least 300k troops to do so. Their tactics are also telling, relying heavily on light infantry instead of armour. This reminds me of when Ukraine went over the Dnipro river into places like Krynky. People were getting excited, thinking they could break out at any moment and liberate loads of territory. I'm pretty sure I bet against it because it's fucking hard to supply lots of soldiers! Russia can easily get troops 5-10 km in and supply them just fine. That's a few hours' walk. The next 10 km should be much harder because by that point they should need vehicles to resupply, and Ukraine is good at killing vehicles. I don't think anyone knows for sure which way things will go, except that Kharkiv falling this year would be astonishing and awful.
|
|
|
Post by staffordstokiemad1 on May 18, 2024 10:36:14 GMT
Zelensky said that his military has enough artillery shells for the first time in two years of war, Ukraine's news agency Interfax reported on Friday.
"For the first time in the years of the war, none of the brigades complain that there is no artillery projectile," Zelensky said, adding that his troops had been talking of ammunition shortages for the past two months.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on May 18, 2024 13:58:29 GMT
Zelensky said that his military has enough artillery shells for the first time in two years of war, Ukraine's news agency Interfax reported on Friday. "For the first time in the years of the war, none of the brigades complain that there is no artillery projectile," Zelensky said, adding that his troops had been talking of ammunition shortages for the past two months. I suspect he's talking shite :/ Maybe he means the supplies coming into the country are good enough now? Lots of frontline people still say it's bad. I think it's improving, there are more videos with Ukrainian shelling, like the one above where they hit the tanks inside russia.
|
|
|
Post by terryconroysmagic on May 18, 2024 21:58:34 GMT
Everything I’m reading seems to be pointing massively to Russia in the ascendancy? Another few months and Kharkiv could be taken? Worrying if Russia keeps taking more and more land. No chance in the long term Putin just stops with Ukraine? Russian propaganda is all in on trying to persuade people that russia can't be stopped... but that's bullshit. I think journalists also tend to look a bit for Hollywood style drama, and russia advancing over some fields and bombing the shit out of new villages is very visual. The headlines usually forget to account for reality though. Since October, russia's taken ~0.1% more of Ukraine's land, and lost so many tanks that they'll have to empty 25% of their remaining storages to replace them. At this rate they'll run out of stored tanks and other mainline vehicles (like BMPs) after taking about 0.4% of Ukraine... The Republicans' pro-Putin blockade opened up a massive window for Putin, he's throwing everything in to exploit that and it's possible Ukraine will crack. There's too much fog of war to know for sure but I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine has to retreat from a much bigger slice of land this summer, but will then stabilise things as replacement ammo and troops arrive. Yes but the flip side of that is western media was saying last summer that Russia was going to be driven out. It’s been clear to me since last summer that this has a stalemate all over it. Ukraine need to start bombing the shit out of targets in Russia to strengthen their position and bring some pain to the average Russian citizen. Where are these replacement Ukrainian troops coming from?
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on May 18, 2024 23:10:25 GMT
Zelensky said that his military has enough artillery shells for the first time in two years of war, Ukraine's news agency Interfax reported on Friday. "For the first time in the years of the war, none of the brigades complain that there is no artillery projectile," Zelensky said, adding that his troops had been talking of ammunition shortages for the past two months. Actually seeing more good news like this, some more units saying the issues aren't as bad as before. The pros I follow were guessing late June would be when the situation should get back under control.
|
|
|
Post by bayernoatcake on May 19, 2024 18:00:20 GMT
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on May 19, 2024 19:00:53 GMT
The famous 47th brigade haven't stopped fighting since last June. It's a sign of how desperately short of trained soldiers Ukraine is right now. :/
|
|
|
Post by OldStokie on May 20, 2024 12:52:42 GMT
A lack of manpower is almost as bad as a lack of ammo. It will take a while to get the new intake sorted and trained to give the guys a rest who've been fighting almost non stop since the shit hit the fan. Add to that, that 20,000 eligible recruits have fled the country to avoid being involved. I won't say what I think about those who have.
OS.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on May 20, 2024 14:23:33 GMT
claimed russian corvette sinking One of the russian channels says that it sank because the russians put a Pantsir air defence system on it, and the ATACMS blew up the air defence ammo. 😂 Hilarious if true.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on May 20, 2024 14:45:12 GMT
The tsiklon/cyclone ship is the on the right. First picture is before the missile strike, second picture is after.
Most of the ships moved between pics, and there is supposedly damage to the building closest to where the tsiklon was. Decent evidence of a hit, but not hard proof.
Tsiklon was only delivered last year and can launch cruise missiles. If a ~$15 million Pantsir system and the skilled crew also got taken out like russians claim, then it's a very damaging strike.
|
|
|
Post by gawa on May 20, 2024 14:55:44 GMT
Add to that, that 20,000 eligible recruits have fled the country to avoid being involved. I won't say what I think about those who have. OS. What do you think about them?
|
|
|
Post by wagsastokie on May 20, 2024 15:10:04 GMT
Add to that, that 20,000 eligible recruits have fled the country to avoid being involved. I won't say what I think about those who have. OS. What do you think about them? It doesn’t matter what he thinks it doesn’t matter what you or me thinks What will matter is what in ten twenty years there countrymen think of them If they ever deign to go back
|
|
|
Post by adri2008 on May 20, 2024 15:15:56 GMT
A lack of manpower is almost as bad as a lack of ammo. It will take a while to get the new intake sorted and trained to give the guys a rest who've been fighting almost non stop since the shit hit the fan. Add to that, that 20,000 eligible recruits have fled the country to avoid being involved. I won't say what I think about those who have. OS. This is why a war of attrition suits Russia. At the end of the day, if Ukraine runs out of able bodied soldiers then there's not much more that can be done. I think it's inevitable that borders will be redrawn unless NATO put its own troops on the line.
|
|
|
Post by gawa on May 20, 2024 18:53:58 GMT
What do you think about them? It doesn’t matter what he thinks it doesn’t matter what you or me thinks What will matter is what in ten twenty years there countrymen think of them If they ever deign to go back Just over three decades ago the people they're fighting with were their country men. People shouldn't be forced to conscript simply because of where they were born. Ukraniains shouldn't be forced to conscription just like Israelis shouldn't be forced to do military service imo.
|
|
|
Post by Olgrligm on May 20, 2024 19:13:05 GMT
It doesn’t matter what he thinks it doesn’t matter what you or me thinks What will matter is what in ten twenty years there countrymen think of them If they ever deign to go back Just over three decades ago the people they're fighting with were their country men. People shouldn't be forced to conscript simply because of where they were born. Ukraniains shouldn't be forced to conscription just like Israelis shouldn't be forced to do military service imo. Do you feel the same way about Ukrainians in the occupied regions being forcibly conscripted to fight for Russia? Or Russians in actual Russia being conscripted? I'm sure you do, but I wanted to emphasise that this isn't a one sided 'West = bad' thing.
|
|
|
Post by gawa on May 21, 2024 8:16:19 GMT
Just over three decades ago the people they're fighting with were their country men. People shouldn't be forced to conscript simply because of where they were born. Ukraniains shouldn't be forced to conscription just like Israelis shouldn't be forced to do military service imo. Do you feel the same way about Ukrainians in the occupied regions being forcibly conscripted to fight for Russia? Or Russians in actual Russia being conscripted? I'm sure you do, but I wanted to emphasise that this isn't a one sided 'West = bad' thing. I don't think anyone should be forced to conscript against their wishes whether Russian or Ukranian. In terms of the occupied regions, Donetsk and Luhansk broke away a decade ago. They have their own passports, number plates and the ukranian banks left the regions. They didn't break away in 2022, they broke away in 2014. I imagine just like in Ukraine that some people from these states have voluntarily fought for Russia. I think when it comes to the above two regions that not many of us dont know the facts and history as we don't get told it. I always thought they were Ukranian regions which were overthrown in the conflict but actually they've been broken away for near a decade and thus its much more complex. I believe alot of the early peace talks broke down over the future of these regions. Had peace been brokered then nobody would be dying.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on May 21, 2024 14:07:29 GMT
I think when it comes to the above two regions that not many of us dont know the facts and history as we don't get told it. I always thought they were Ukranian regions which were overthrown in the conflict but actually they've been broken away for near a decade and thus its much more complex. I believe alot of the early peace talks broke down over the future of these regions. Had peace been brokered then nobody would be dying. It's a decade since russian agents organised the occupation of parts of Luhansk and Donetsk under the barrels of russian guns and tanks. Yes they had some local patsies, but that doesn't mean you get to conquer and murder people IMO. That's quite a different thing. Where they disappeared, tortured and murdered Ukrainians who didn't want to be under the jackboot. In fact, Donbas shows Ukraine's future if they don't fight. The russian government there used to announce casualties of their "independent" forces. They reached almost 20,000 in ~8 months. Russia sees Ukrainians as nothing more than meat to fuel their empire. For scale: if Ukraine had mobilised its own people at the rate Russia force mobilised people from occupied Donetsk, Ukraine would have taken a million casualties by now. I don't think people living cushy lives in the west comprehend just how deeply evil Putin's russia is. And that causes huge misjudgments.
|
|
|
Post by gawa on May 21, 2024 14:25:23 GMT
I think when it comes to the above two regions that not many of us dont know the facts and history as we don't get told it. I always thought they were Ukranian regions which were overthrown in the conflict but actually they've been broken away for near a decade and thus its much more complex. I believe alot of the early peace talks broke down over the future of these regions. Had peace been brokered then nobody would be dying. It's a decade since russian agents organised the occupation of parts of Luhansk and Donetsk under the barrels of russian guns and tanks. That's quite a different thing. Where they disappeared, tortured and murdered Ukrainians who didn't want to be under the jackboot. In fact, Donbas shows Ukraine's future if they don't fight. The russian government there used to announce casualties of their "independent" forces. They reached almost 20,000 in ~8 months. Russia sees Ukrainians as nothing more than meat to fuel their empire. For scale: if Ukraine had mobilised its own people at the rate Russia force mobilised people from occupied Donetsk, Ukraine would have taken a million casualties by now. I don't think people living cushy lives in the west comprehend just how deeply evil Putin's russia is. And that causes huge misjudgments. Where is your source Mtrstudent for that claim? There were also similar claims from Russia about Ukraine torturing and murdering Russian speakers in the region. I know you like to discount any opinion different from your own as Russian propaganda on this subject. Can you provide some examples of western propoganda which has been used in the conflict? It would be incredibly naive to presume one side is completely honest and transparent and never uses propoganda while the other side just lies time and time again. 1 million of people from Donbas have fled to Russia since 2014. Why would these people who are being tortured and murdered flee to the country which is carrying out these acts against them? And in such vast numbers too. I don't think people living cushy lives in the west comprehend just how many war crimes their morally correct countries have committed over the last number of decades. And that causes huge misjudgements.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on May 21, 2024 16:04:41 GMT
Where is your source Mtrstudent for that claim? There were also similar claims from Russia about Ukraine torturing and murdering Russian speakers in the region. I know you like to discount any opinion different from your own as Russian propaganda on this subject. Can you provide some examples of western propoganda which has been used in the conflict? It would be incredibly naive to presume one side is completely honest and transparent and never uses propoganda while the other side just lies time and time again. I'm about to head to a meeting so will need to get links later... But "both sides" and "West bad" are distractions. Obviously the most evil side always wants to push "butbothsides". Russia compulsively lies and we westerners struggle to comprehend just how little reality matters to their words. It's like our reaction to Donald Trump. My Ukrainian friends from Mykolaiv and Odesa openly speak russian in the street. Videos of rescuers after russian terror bombing in Kharkiv or Kostyantinivka have victims screaming in russian and rescuers shouting back in russian. Many Ukrainian units speak russian. Ukrainians elected Zelenskyy, a native Russian speaker. There are some linguistic frictions, but the claims of "Donbas genocide" and russian being punished are russian lies. They will say anything they think will get sympathy or justification or help them to murder Ukrainians.
|
|
|
Post by gawa on May 22, 2024 13:38:05 GMT
Where is your source Mtrstudent for that claim? There were also similar claims from Russia about Ukraine torturing and murdering Russian speakers in the region. I know you like to discount any opinion different from your own as Russian propaganda on this subject. Can you provide some examples of western propoganda which has been used in the conflict? It would be incredibly naive to presume one side is completely honest and transparent and never uses propoganda while the other side just lies time and time again. I'm about to head to a meeting so will need to get links later... But "both sides" and "West bad" are distractions. Obviously the most evil side always wants to push "butbothsides". Russia compulsively lies and we westerners struggle to comprehend just how little reality matters to their words. It's like our reaction to Donald Trump. My Ukrainian friends from Mykolaiv and Odesa openly speak russian in the street. Videos of rescuers after russian terror bombing in Kharkiv or Kostyantinivka have victims screaming in russian and rescuers shouting back in russian. Many Ukrainian units speak russian. Ukrainians elected Zelenskyy, a native Russian speaker. There are some linguistic frictions, but the claims of "Donbas genocide" and russian being punished are russian lies. They will say anything they think will get sympathy or justification or help them to murder Ukrainians. Do you think a Russian person, following Russian coverage, would be saying much different to yourself now? I'm sure they'd shut down any criticism of Russia with the same rhetorics. I can look at the actions of western military in Iraq, Israel, Northern Ireland, Afghanistan, Vietnam and many other countries and on reflection realise "wait we did alot of bad things there which didn't come out of the grapevine till years later". Now with that knowledge I'm not suddenly going to think "Oh well I know we made mistakes in alot of previous conflicts but this time I am absolutely certain that we are defo 100% the good guys and what we are doing is for the greater good of humanity". Just this week we found out how the british government and NHS gave thousands of people infected blood and have tried their best to cover it up for decades. A few months before we found out about how thousands of people got themselves into debts and some even did prison time, and some unfortunately killed themselves because they were being prosecuted under the post office scandal which again was another cover up. Or what about Julian Assange, still imprisoned in the UK today while the US try and extradicate him, a journalist. What was his crime? Disclosing the truth and the extent of some of the crimes we commit in the west? Does none of the above come into your mind when processing everything which is happening in Russia? Is it just blind faith that we've been told Russia is bad for years so everything is completely justified and we have to stop Russia at all costs because this time we the west are being 100% genuine in our intentions? Critical thinking isn't following Russian propaganda and it isn't a distraction either. But here we are where a few years ago all the western leaders were condemning Russia based on an ICC ruling. And today the same leaders are ignoring an ICC ruling because it doesn't suit them and they're opposing it. Correct for Putin but incorrect for Netanyahu? How does that work? It's important that we all try to educate ourselves and do our research across a variety of sources because Russia lies, Israel lies, Uk lies, America lies. So if you want the truth you aren't going to ever get it just by following one side of the argument and discounting any alternative as propoganda. The Donbas region has a long and complex history which not many of us can comprehend. Yet it's spoken about as if it's been an Ukranian territory for centuries when it hasn't. It's been under the power of Poland, Lithuania and Russia for significantly longer than it's been Ukranian. Alot of the names for places in the region are derived from the Russian language because it was the Russians under Catherine the Great which built up the region. Now with the above said that doesn't mean I'm saying everyone there wants to be a part of Russia. But did I know any of that before doing my own research? No. To me I thought it would be like France coming across and taking the South of England. Instead it's a bit more like Ireland taking back the North of Ireland. Where some of the population identify more as Irish, some identify more as British. It's more complex than made out. But I'm absolutely not going to blindly follow the narrative pushed out by the same countries who want to honour an ICC ruling when it suits them and speak out against an ICC ruling when it doesn't suit them. We are also complicit in war crimes and have a history of doing bad and I hope the Russians who get told about how bad the west is, I hope some of them have the nuance to think outside the box and think maybe the issue is the leaders and not the people. Just look at the rife inequality unfolding across the west today, the poverty, homelessness, lack of health care and everything else. Do those leaders even care about the people they're meant to represent? How do so many of these countries oversee such growing inequality and always seem to take the side of the corporations over their population? And cover up anything they do wrong until they're finally caught out. How many blood scandals and post office scandals have there been which haven't been uncovered. So I understand and respect why people may want to flee and not fight in these wars because there is more to life than dying for a load of narcissists who put their greed above their people. "fighting for your country" is the biggest load of propaganda there is. Aside from a few countries which have been around for centuries, the vast majority of them have continually swapped hands and borders throughout their existence. Are australian indigenous people remembered for fighting back? The roman empire for defending Britain against invaders? Vikings for defending territories in Ireland they once ruled? People from Donbas who fought to keep the region in the Poland-Lithuanian alliance? Short term they may think they're fighting for "their country" but as years turn into decades which turn into centuries these countries and borders will always change. You don't fight for your country. You fight for your paymaster. And for some there's more to life than fighting a war for leaders who put their own self importance first.
|
|