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Post by wannabee on Jun 17, 2022 15:17:56 GMT
The stupid fuckers had a chance for EEA membership when May was PM. Probably the most likely outcome at that time. The hard core remainers should have gone with that as most likely path to eventually rejoining. I’m not especially arsed either way but there’s almost zero chance of rejoining now. There is no logic in being in the EEA. What is the point of being subject to the rules of the EU when not in the EU? Being subject to a mass of legislation with no power to influence it is undemocratic. Most UK trade is outside of the EU and growing faster than trade with the EU, even when the UK was in the EU. The EU will continue to be our largest trading partner even though we have left, because of geography, but people should realise where the future lies. Germany does, its largest trading partner is China. The EU represent about <5th of the world economy. By 2030 it will be c.10%. The UK's trading EU represent about <5th of the world is with North America, indo China, Pacific rim, and eventually Africa. The UK is the =5th world's largest economy and still in the top 10 world's largest manufacturing economies. You are right about rejoining. The British people will not give up their sovereignty again. To join would incur a huge membership cost as most of the UK trade is outside the EU, and whilst everything is subject to negotiation, the present rules say new members have to join the Euro which would be disastrous for the UK economy as it is for Greece, Spain, and Italy. Europe has the second lowest economic growth after Antarctica. Daniel Hannan one, if not the leading Brexiteer, recently said UK should not have left the Single Market www.thenational.scot/news/20187957.brexiteer-peer-lord-hannan-admits-uk-stayed-single-market/Back in 2018 when exit negotiations were in progress Hannan put EEA Membership second after a Swiss Style Deal as his preferred option. So not as fanciful as you make out but probably not now due to poor negotiations Your Quote: "Eu represent about <5th of the world economy. By 2030 it will be c.10%."You have consistently said in many posts that you do not believe any forecasts but in this case you have managed to misrepresent current facts as well as projected by 2030. The EU currently amounts to 15% of World GDP and is project to become 12% by 2030 Not through recession but steady growth but outpaced by more rapid growth in emerging markets fullfact.org/europe/eu-less-important-world-economy/To put that in perspective Germany manages to remain but only in 10th place of World Economies by 2030 but UK drops out entirely ceoworld.biz/2019/01/08/by-2030-these-10-economies-will-be-the-worlds-largest/
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Post by mrcoke on Jun 17, 2022 15:34:43 GMT
There is no logic in being in the EEA. What is the point of being subject to the rules of the EU when not in the EU? Being subject to a mass of legislation with no power to influence it is undemocratic. Most UK trade is outside of the EU and growing faster than trade with the EU, even when the UK was in the EU. The EU will continue to be our largest trading partner even though we have left, because of geography, but people should realise where the future lies. Germany does, its largest trading partner is China. The EU represent about <5th of the world economy. By 2030 it will be c.10%. The UK's trading EU represent about <5th of the world is with North America, indo China, Pacific rim, and eventually Africa. The UK is the =5th world's largest economy and still in the top 10 world's largest manufacturing economies. You are right about rejoining. The British people will not give up their sovereignty again. To join would incur a huge membership cost as most of the UK trade is outside the EU, and whilst everything is subject to negotiation, the present rules say new members have to join the Euro which would be disastrous for the UK economy as it is for Greece, Spain, and Italy. Europe has the second lowest economic growth after Antarctica. Daniel Hannan one, if not the leading Brexiteer, recently said UK should not have left the Single Market www.thenational.scot/news/20187957.brexiteer-peer-lord-hannan-admits-uk-stayed-single-market/Back in 2018 when exit negotiations were in progress Hannan put EEA Membership second after a Swiss Style Deal as his preferred option. So not as fanciful as you make out but probably not now due to poor negotiations Your Quote: "Eu represent about <5th of the world economy. By 2030 it will be c.10%."You have consistently said in many posts that you do not believe any forecasts but in this case you have managed to misrepresent current facts as well as projected by 2030. The EU currently amounts to 15% of World GDP and is project to become 12% by 2030 Not through recession but steady growth but outpaced by more rapid growth in emerging markets fullfact.org/europe/eu-less-important-world-economy/To put that in perspective Germany manages to remain but only in 10th place of World Economies by 2030 but UK drops out entirely ceoworld.biz/2019/01/08/by-2030-these-10-economies-will-be-the-worlds-largest/You are gradually getting the hang of it. 15% is less than a fifth of the world economy, and 12% is approximately a tenth. Yes the EU is growing, very , very steadily outpaced by Asia, North America, Asia, and even Africa. The UK have left the slow lane of the EU with which trade was growing at a miserable c. 1% pa. Trade has been growing at 2-3 % pa with the rest of the world pre pandemic and when trade deals are completed during the next decade, the UK economy will be outstripping the EU. You are probably right that Germany will still be in the top ten in 2030 but judging by its performance in recent years it will have to get a move on. German growth recently has been extremely dependant on China.
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Post by wannabee on Jun 17, 2022 16:00:58 GMT
You are gradually getting the hang of it. 15% is less than a fifth of the world economy, and 12% is approximately a tenth. Yes the EU is growing, very , very steadily outpaced by Asia, North America, Asia, and even Africa. The UK have left the slow lane of the EU with which trade was growing at a miserable c. 1% pa. Trade has been growing at 2-3 % pa with the rest of the world pre pandemic and when trade deals are completed during the next decade, the UK economy will be outstripping the EU. You are probably right that Germany will still be in the top ten in 2030 but judging by its performance in recent years it will have to get a move on. German growth recently has been extremely dependant on China. You obviously have no thoughts on Hannans views then or now I suppose its pedantic to point out that 15% is 25% less than 20% and 12% is 20% more than 10% If Germany's No 1 Trading Partner is China from within the EU why would UK need to leave EU to do similar? Furthermore what precludes any EU Country Trading with whomever it wishes Do you have confidence given recent events that any Country would see UK as a trustworthy partner ? I don't disagree with your overall assessment that EU will grow at a steady 1% - 2% range in the medium term There will be outliers of course Irelands GDP grew 11% in Q1 2022
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Post by mrcoke on Jun 17, 2022 18:47:28 GMT
You are gradually getting the hang of it. 15% is less than a fifth of the world economy, and 12% is approximately a tenth. Yes the EU is growing, very , very steadily outpaced by Asia, North America, Asia, and even Africa. The UK have left the slow lane of the EU with which trade was growing at a miserable c. 1% pa. Trade has been growing at 2-3 % pa with the rest of the world pre pandemic and when trade deals are completed during the next decade, the UK economy will be outstripping the EU. You are probably right that Germany will still be in the top ten in 2030 but judging by its performance in recent years it will have to get a move on. German growth recently has been extremely dependant on China. You obviously have no thoughts on Hannans views then or now I suppose its pedantic to point out that 15% is 25% less than 20% and 12% is 20% more than 10% If Germany's No 1 Trading Partner is China from within the EU why would UK need to leave EU to do similar? Furthermore what precludes any EU Country Trading with whomever it wishes Do you have confidence given recent events that any Country would see UK as a trustworthy partner ? I don't disagree with your overall assessment that EU will grow at a steady 1% - 2% range in the medium term There will be outliers of course Irelands GDP grew 11% in Q1 2022 Call me pedantic, but I didn't say 20%, I said "less than a 5th" (< means less than), and I didn't say 10% I said c. 10% ( c. means approximately). The UK hasn't left the EU just to trade, it has left to restore sovereignty and not be ruled from Brussels/Strasbourg/Luxembourg/Frankfurt etc., stop propping up other inefficient European economies, being bled by huge financial contribution each year and a massive trade deficit, and negotiate trade deals and improved trade deals with a host of countries, not just trade with China. Why do you think Merkel pushed through an EU China Investment deal when she was chair of the Council? Fortunately the Parliament did not ratify it. Merkel has gone, and regarding your penultimate paragraph so will Johnson and his cronies.
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