Stoke's "Expected Goals"

[tachyon]

Premier League teams are increasingly measuring their performance in term of expected goals rather than actual ones.

They look at how many goals they might expect to score or concede based on the amount, location and type of attempts they are creating or allowing.

Process rather than outcome.

Arsene Wenger’s talked about Arsenal’s “expected goals”, but don’t let that put you off the idea.

Here’s the expected goals profile for all 20 teams so far this season. (green is good, red is bad).

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On this measure on a per game basis we are 16th.

We’ve scored about as often as our chance creation merits, but we’ve actually let in about four fewer goals compared to the quantity, quality and shot type of chances we’ve allowed.

So basically Jack’s saved our season from being one that could have turned into a proper relegation fight.

The bad news is that extreme performances (like Jack’s) almost always regress towards more normal levels. He won’t stay “hot” forever and if I were looking at our core expected goal values, I’d be a bit worried.

[nicholasjalcock]

Very interesting indeed! Table indicates that Leicester are in a false position, 4 places higher! Stoke are several places higher than we should expect to be! Shows how much work in the summer transfer window needs to be done!