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Post by pearo on Jul 26, 2014 0:14:52 GMT
Should there be a yes result in the Scottish Referendum does anyone know what will happen to our parliament? I'm not sure how many constituencies there are in Scotland currently in our parliament but I'm sure there aren't many Conservative ones. Therefore a yes vote would surely mean that there would have to be a General Election in the rest of the UK without Scotland being able to vote as they will have their own government.
I reckon this would change the whole spectrum of our government as Labour would lose all their Scottish MP's thereby giving a massive advantage to the Conservatives.
And what becomes of Alex Salmond there wouldn't be any need for a SNP if Scotland was Independent.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2014 0:31:28 GMT
Should there be a yes result in the Scottish Referendum does anyone know what will happen to our parliament? I'm not sure how many constituencies there are in Scotland currently in our parliament but I'm sure there aren't many Conservative ones. Therefore a yes vote would surely mean that there would have to be a General Election in the rest of the UK without Scotland being able to vote as they will have their own government. I reckon this would change the whole spectrum of our government as Labour would lose all their Scottish MP's thereby giving a massive advantage to the Conservatives. And what becomes of Alex Salmond there wouldn't be any need for a SNP if Scotland was Independent. There will be a General Election in the Uk in May of next year anyway .....have you just woken up from a five year snooze ?  |
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Post by pearo on Jul 26, 2014 0:59:22 GMT
I'm led to believe that if Scotland do vote yes it will take longer than May next year to ratify so everyone still votes in May but as soon as their Independence becomes official then we would have to have another election without them. I'm not sure if that is correct but if it is then whatever the outcome of the May election we will effectively have a government with very little time to achieve anything, which in itself would surely have some bearing on our economic recovery etc.
No I haven't had a five year snooze but I have been on nights zzzzz
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2014 1:01:15 GMT
I'm led to believe that if Scotland do vote yes it will take longer than May next year to ratify so everyone still votes in May but as soon as their Independence becomes official then we would have to have another election without them. I'm not sure if that is correct but if it is then whatever the outcome of the May election we will effectively have a government with very little time to achieve anything, which in itself would surely have some bearing on our economic recovery etc. No I haven't had a five year snooze but I have been on nights zzzzz That must explain it ...  |
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Post by pearo on Jul 26, 2014 1:10:09 GMT
Another thing, if they do vote yes but don't get accepted into the EU does that make all Scots living in the rest of the UK illegal immigrants and therefore liable to be deported back to where they came from?
See you Fergie and take that big red nose with you
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2014 1:25:17 GMT
Another thing, if they do vote yes but don't get accepted into the EU does that make all Scots living in the rest of the UK illegal immigrants and therefore liable to be deported back to where they came from? See you Fergie and take that big red nose with you It would make Blackpool a lot quieter if they did  |
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Post by harryburrows on Jul 26, 2014 2:14:00 GMT
Another thing, if they do vote yes but don't get accepted into the EU does that make all Scots living in the rest of the UK illegal immigrants and therefore liable to be deported back to where they came from? See you Fergie and take that big red nose with you the EU have already stated they will not be a member state , they will not be allowed to keep the £ as their currency , i would be very surprised if the jocks decided to go it alone |
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Post by pearo on Jul 26, 2014 2:35:40 GMT
Fair point harry, but I believe there is an underlying hatred of the English that may mean enough of them vote yes, and why can't we have a referendum on if we want to keep them in the Union?
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Post by harryburrows on Jul 26, 2014 6:15:06 GMT
they do have a resentful attitude towards the english but i cant believe they wont see the writing on the wall ,if they decide to leave the UK it will be a hard slog . the oil wont last for ever
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Post by kingdong on Jul 26, 2014 6:42:03 GMT
If Scotland do vote yes then the SNP think that Independence will occur in March 2016, and Scottish elections will be held in May 2016.
I assume that any Scottish MPs will be booted out of the UK parliament then.
This could have a huge impact on the UK parliament as Labour would lose 40 odd seats which could trigger another UK General Election if that swings the balance of power from Labour to Tory. Electoral Calculus who do statistical modelling are currently predicting a Labour majority of around 48.
That said I think the Scots will vote No.
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Post by santy on Jul 26, 2014 8:28:37 GMT
Jamie Ness requires a work permit.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2014 10:24:36 GMT
Cheap beer over the border is likely the only thing good to come from a yes vote.
Their banks will probably move south to London, army bases will probably close and BBC Scotland offices will close.
For me, it's either all in or all out. If they vote yes, then come the general election I will pay particular attention to the parties stance on Scotland and will move my bank accounts (if they don't move south).
Devo max is the best option for Scotland IMO.
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Post by ukcstokie on Jul 26, 2014 10:56:01 GMT
18 months (Sept 2014 -> March 2016) to sort out all the problems of unhinging Scotland from the UK? 5 years would be a more sensible plan.
There would be so much to sort out (no £, no Euro, WTF do they do, for a starter). The SNP are selling it the Scottish people on the basis of what they want from the 'divorce'. But in reality, in any divorce neither party gets anywhere what they wanted.
I hope they don't do it, but if they do, then Cameron should take a substantial amount of the blame for allowing the destruction of the UK.
Cameron should never have agreed to the SNP lowering the voting age (if it's good enough for the UK elections then it should be good enough for the referendum), and allowing the vote to leave the UK to be decided by a 50% + 1 vote (something this far reaching - a permanent divorce after centuries together shouldn't be decided without a substantial backing from the Scottish people).
My Mrs is Scottish, I asked my mother-in-law the other day about this (when she was down visiting) and she went off into a 30 minute tirade against the SNP.
To get back to the original question: the net result if the Scots go would probably make Labour un-electable in the rest of the UK. The Lib-dems will take years to rebuild their reputation after their part in the government (given the view of their core vote on this Government), that would mean pretty much unopposed run in power from the Tories. I suspect the people may continue to turn in numbers to UKIP as the only other credible challenge.
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Post by Gods on Jul 26, 2014 11:57:39 GMT
I do hope the Scots stay.
If they go I am far from convinced they will take with them their fair share of the national debt and any hidden/unknown items which will inevitably appear will be the responsibility of what remains of the UK. Of course I don't know that but I fundamentally don't trust this process. The UK will be left holding the baby.
I happen to think that shorn of all the old UK baggage they would thrive but I don't want them to go.
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Post by stokester1989 on Jul 26, 2014 13:43:57 GMT
they do have a resentful attitude towards the english but i cant believe they wont see the writing on the wall ,if they decide to leave the UK it will be a hard slog . the oil wont last for ever Scotland is meant to be the 14th Richest Nation. - They have an estimated 15-24 billion barrels of Oil left which will continue long into the 21st century, Their oil reserve is estimated at 1 Trillion Pounds.
- For the past 33 years Scotland has raised an average £800 per a head tax than the rest of the UK.
- Scotland has a massive export trade of whiskey with 40 bottles exported per a second, Last year Scotland's Whiskey export was values at 4.27 Billion pounds.
- In the past 30 years Scotland has had to pay 64 Billion pounds to Westminster, as an independent country this would no longer be a fee they have to upkeep.
- Scotland also has a massive income from the Fishing industry.
But still i agree they are resentful to the English, proof in the pudding is when it comes to Football and the Scottish support anybody who is playing England. personally id rather they went independent and build the wall again  |
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Post by salopstick on Jul 26, 2014 17:36:15 GMT
Scotland won't vote no
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Post by lawrieleslie on Jul 26, 2014 20:28:07 GMT
This... Scotland will vote yes by a slender majority but there will be massive opposition from the Scottish Islands... Hebrides, Orkneys and Shetland who want to remain in the Union. By 2018 the Island coalition demand another referendum to split from Scotland and rejoin UK citing poor deal from the oil revenue as the reason. Salmond is forced to allow this and the Islands vote to rejoin the UK in 2019. By doing this the oil revenue reverts to UK treasury, because the oil fields are mainly in the sea space of the Islands, and Scotland have to review their financial policies. University fees are reintroduced, free care for the elderly is abolished as is free prescriptions. By 2021 Scotland is reeling, they have not managed to negotiate a place in EU and exports are virtually non-existant, university fees have doubled forcing students to apply to English Unis and they have massive unemployment as the public services are cut back and British Defence establishments at Rosyth, Arbroath, Lossiemouth, Faslane and Coalport have moved south of the boarder. With Russia knocking on the door with financial aid Salmond is forced to go cap in hand to English PM Boris Johnson begging to be re-admitted to the Union.........a scenario that could easily happen.  |
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Post by pearo on Jul 26, 2014 20:38:37 GMT
What do you think the percentage turn out will be for the referendum? At the last General Election the average turn out for the UK was 65.1%, there were 59 Scottish constituencies who voted in 2010, of those 13 had a turnout of less than 60% including 6 out of the 7 in Glasgow of which, Glasgow North East was less than 50% turnout. Do you think a higher turnout in the more deprived areas of Scotland will swell the anti English Yes vote or will apathy reign as usual with these voters and the status quo will remain.
By the way Salopstick I think you are right
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Post by lordb on Jul 26, 2014 22:31:50 GMT
They won't vote yes
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2014 22:52:00 GMT
If Scotland do vote yes then the SNP think that Independence will occur in March 2016, and Scottish elections will be held in May 2016. I assume that any Scottish MPs will be booted out of the UK parliament then. This could have a huge impact on the UK parliament as Labour would lose 40 odd seats which could trigger another UK General Election if that swings the balance of power from Labour to Tory. Electoral Calculus who do statistical modelling are currently predicting a Labour majority of around 48. That said I think the Scots will vote No. In the advent of the Scots leaving the UK ....I would be surprised if this left Labour with a majority of 48 ...you never know though ? |
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Post by pearo on Jul 26, 2014 23:16:45 GMT
At the 2010 election there were 650 constituencies of which the Conservatives won 307 seats, 1 of which was in Scotland. There were 59 constituencies in Scotland so if they go Independant and leave the UK government, and assuming the other constituency boundaries stay the same that leaves 591 seats up for election. Which taking away the one seat they won in Scotland would give the Conservatives 306 seats and an overall majority of 21 seats over all parties as opposed to a minority of 36 over all parties at the minute. Labour's seats would drop from 258 to 218 leaving them 88 short off the Conservatives. So in light of a yes vote the future looks very bleak for Labour even if they ditch Mr Personallity Milliband, and an overall majority of 48 looks impossible.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2014 23:20:10 GMT
At the 2010 election there were 650 constituencies of which the Conservatives won 307 seats, 1 of which was in Scotland. There were 59 constituencies in Scotland so if they go Independant and leave the UK government, and assuming the other constituency boundaries stay the same that leaves 591 seats up for election. Which taking away the one seat they won in Scotland would give the Conservatives 306 seats and an overall majority of 21 seats over all parties as opposed to a minority of 36 over all parties at the minute. Labour's seats would drop from 258 to 218 leaving them 88 short off the Conservatives. So in light of a yes vote the future looks very bleak for Labour even if they ditch Mr Personallity Milliband, and an overall majority of 48 looks impossible. On the whole then it's a prosperous out look for the country ? |
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Post by pearo on Jul 26, 2014 23:27:26 GMT
In my opinion the Romans had the right idea and there's no way Ed Milliband will ever be Spartacus
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2014 23:37:06 GMT
In my opinion the Romans had the right idea and there's no way Ed Milliband will ever be Spartacus I wouldn't argue with that.....no doubt some may do so ...I can guess the culprits ... |
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Post by pearo on Jul 26, 2014 23:43:28 GMT
Kirk Douglas would be the main one I expect
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Post by kingdong on Jul 27, 2014 0:02:43 GMT
If Scotland do vote yes then the SNP think that Independence will occur in March 2016, and Scottish elections will be held in May 2016. I assume that any Scottish MPs will be booted out of the UK parliament then. This could have a huge impact on the UK parliament as Labour would lose 40 odd seats which could trigger another UK General Election if that swings the balance of power from Labour to Tory. Electoral Calculus who do statistical modelling are currently predicting a Labour majority of around 48. That said I think the Scots will vote No. In the advent of the Scots leaving the UK ....I would be surprised if this left Labour with a majority of 48 ...you never know though ? Sorry Electoral Calculus are predicting a Labour majority of 48 in next years election, which would be cut drastically if Labour loses its Scottish MPs in 2016. It could lead to a hung parliament. |
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Post by ColonelMustard on Jul 27, 2014 1:16:12 GMT
I like the tories less than the Scots like the English. If I was them I'd be gone, but I hope they stay.
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Post by pearo on Aug 21, 2014 6:45:07 GMT
I was talking to a workmate who lives in Scotland and who is reasonably sensible for a Jock, and he believes it is too close to call and the majority may be only a few votes one way to the other. Do you think a subject of this magnitude needs a 2/3 of all votes cast to be carried?
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Post by craig67 on Aug 21, 2014 6:55:48 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2014 9:24:10 GMT
if the Scots do decide to piss off, would it be bad form to simply invade them straight away and take them over again? "You may take our lives but you'll never take our freedom" "Fuck off Wallace, i think we'll do both thanks very much"  |
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