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Post by stokieian on Jun 23, 2012 16:38:07 GMT
Same again folks think you know the score I'd be tempted to back the England to qualify market and lay it on bet fair.
£50 free in play bet then follows. If anyone's unsure let me know and il run through the figures.
Remember you need £100 in your bet 365 account
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Post by SneydGreenStokie on Jun 23, 2012 17:08:02 GMT
Ledge
SGS
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Post by scfcno1fan on Jun 23, 2012 17:09:39 GMT
Is this not the same thread that SGS has just set up?
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Post by SneydGreenStokie on Jun 23, 2012 17:14:37 GMT
Same time matee. To be fair, stokieian always sets this up
SGS
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Post by stokieian on Jun 23, 2012 17:16:08 GMT
As long as us good folks get a chance to bash the bookie!
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Post by kevkj on Jun 23, 2012 17:22:49 GMT
Ian ,i may be slow but ive never done one of these bets.ill cock it up probably.
I take you need £100 in a Bet 365 account and £50 in another companys account.
Basically you bet say £50 on England to qualify with Bet365
£50 Italy to qualify with another company.
You then get a £50 free in play bet which you may or not win on?
The £50 free bet though is only placed back to your account after the result ,win or lose on your free bet.This is why you need £100 to start with at Bet365 and £50 with another.
Is this about right?
Is this just for new customers?
I currently have a William Hill account but not bet365
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Post by stokieian on Jun 23, 2012 17:28:39 GMT
Spot on that mate. It is for any 365 customer not new ones
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Post by kevkj on Jun 23, 2012 17:32:25 GMT
William Hill has both teams at 10/11 to qualify.
So Ian you need £150 to start out,if your in play bet comes in do you still get the stake back as well?
Do you know if i get a free bet or perk for opening new account
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Post by kevkj on Jun 23, 2012 18:04:54 GMT
New customers confuses it all surely is the original still valid?
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Post by amancalledhorse on Jun 23, 2012 19:13:56 GMT
PROTIP: Those with two grand spare can qualify on the HT/FT market with Italy/England at 41/40.  |
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Post by SneydGreenStokie on Jun 23, 2012 19:52:08 GMT
PROTIP: Those with two grand spare can qualify on the HT/FT market with Italy/England at 41/40. Why do that? Just put £2000 on 40/1? SGS |
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Post by amancalledhorse on Jun 23, 2012 20:42:42 GMT
Nah,
50 on Italy/England at bet365 @ 41
Lay 51.31 at betfair for a £2001.25 liability.
You'll lose £1.25 in qualifying for the free bet.
PROTIP: Don't do that.
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Post by SneydGreenStokie on Jun 23, 2012 21:44:27 GMT
Nah, 50 on Italy/England at bet365 @ 41 Lay 51.31 at betfair for a £2001.25 liability. You'll lose £1.25 in qualifying for the free bet. PROTIP: Don't do that. So why say it!!!! SGS |
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Post by stokieian on Jun 23, 2012 21:58:48 GMT
Yeh and when you win with betfair you pay 2.5% commission on £2000! Not so clever that one!
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Post by amancalledhorse on Jun 23, 2012 21:58:56 GMT
Because it's the most efficient way to qualify for that bet.
I'd say not to do it because the OP is advocating laying off to qualify for a free bet. You don't need to tie up 2 grand to do that.
I believe you can get 10-11 on England to qualify and also for Italy to qualify. Back both for fifty quid and you come away from that £4.55 worse off in either outcome.
PROTIP: You can do this through betfair for better odds than 1.91.
Also, I could give you a betfair referral code that would see us both get 25 quid credited.
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Post by stokieian on Jun 23, 2012 21:59:48 GMT
Not sure if you can bet in play on first booking with 365 but if you can ballotelli at 9-1 is asking for 50 quid on it!
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Post by amancalledhorse on Jun 23, 2012 22:01:25 GMT
You'd pay 5% on it actually, which I'd already factored into the calculations and still only cost you 1.25.
I've done plenty of this though not on the in-play 365 offers. In fact, (and whisper it quietly) there's a way you can ensure a profit from that 50 quid offer practically risk free.
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Post by stokieian on Jun 23, 2012 22:18:25 GMT
I'm sure there is if you pick your way through all the markets but the whole point of this is that you are getting stupidly good odds on say a correct score. Say you back 3-1 at 28s to return 1400 profit. You are effectively getting over 1000-1 on a 28-1 shot.
If I wanted to make a few quid I would lay this back in play, no need to whisper and I would guarantee a profit, but I'm going for the big coin on this one!
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Post by SneydGreenStokie on Jun 24, 2012 0:03:51 GMT
I'm sure there is if you pick your way through all the markets but the whole point of this is that you are getting stupidly good odds on say a correct score. Say you back 3-1 at 28s to return 1400 profit. You are effectively getting over 1000-1 on a 28-1 shot. If I wanted to make a few quid I would lay this back in play, no need to whisper and I would guarantee a profit, but I'm going for the big coin on this one! PM me what it is your doing! SGS |
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Post by amancalledhorse on Jun 24, 2012 1:22:59 GMT
What he's doing is qualifying for the free in-play bet at a moderate loss (which is accepted because of the potential returns from the free bet). You can in this case expect to lose between 2 and 5ish quid in qualifying for the free bet.
The 1400 quid profit is only going to come in if the 27-1 shout comes in but obviously at the cost of about 5 quid gives implied odds of around 280-1 which is clearly big value. Generally, I would aim to lock in profit from a 50 quid offer of about 35-40 guaranteed rather than taking the risk but having little experience of in-play matching, I'd imagine there are all sorts of reasons like drifting odds and liquidity on the exchanges preventing a decent match to be had.
I would speculate that anyone who does bet in-play on long odds only when there are freebies going runs the risk of getting the banhammer when they do finally hit the big one though.
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Post by Trouserdog on Jun 24, 2012 9:11:41 GMT
My tipping has been so poor this tournament that I'm backing Italy to qualify, just to put the kiss of death on them.
It'll also be some compensation if/when we lose.
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Post by petergriffin on Jun 24, 2012 9:17:10 GMT
Why not just stick upto £50 on martin kelly score first, thus giving you a £50 free bet in-play.
You will get your £50 back on Martin Kelly as he wont be on the pitch when the first goal is scored(and if it's 0-0 you will get it back as well).
Thus giving you a totally risk free bet on the inplay markets!
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Post by Trouserdog on Jun 24, 2012 9:20:06 GMT
Why not just stick upto £50 on martin kelly score first, thus giving you a £50 free bet in-play. You will get your £50 back on Martin Kelly as he wont be on the pitch when the first goal is scored(and if it's 0-0 you will get it back as well). Thus giving you a totally risk free bet on the inplay markets! Sod's law that if you do that, Johnson gets injured first minute and Hodgson brings him on. Better to pay the few quid it costs to lay the bet off than risk it. |
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Post by stokieian on Jun 24, 2012 10:08:15 GMT
The risk you run by backing Kelly is that in the term and conditions it says you can't do something to guarantee profit, or words to that effect, which is basically what your doing.
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Post by petergriffin on Jun 24, 2012 10:43:33 GMT
it isnt though stokieian, if you back a player on the subs bench there aint anything they can do about it (used to work there). The only risk is like trouserdog said.
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Post by redstriper on Jun 24, 2012 11:57:59 GMT
theres some extra offers you can take advantage of:-
bet365 refund all bets if it 0-0
betfair refund if it goes to extra time on half-time full time bets
both are up to 350 total.
so...
by backing each team to win and using your free bet on the draw. you can get pretty close to returning a profit whatever the result
the most i can lose is £5 on england half time england full time, but every other result at halftime and full time returns a profit of up to £280
assuming I've done all the maths and logic correctly...
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Post by stokieian on Jun 24, 2012 12:32:06 GMT
Peter you prob know more about this than me then if you worked there , but I would be a bit pissed if my free bet came in and I won say, a grand and they refused to pay! For the sake of a couple of quid it's safer to lay it elsewhere
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Post by justlookin on Jun 24, 2012 12:41:19 GMT
I've got it, just not the bit about betfair, I've gone on there, clicked the lay button next to england, if i put £50 in it says my liability is £100 :S. sorry I'm really confused.
instructions on the bet fair part please?
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Post by kevkj on Jun 24, 2012 13:07:40 GMT
Does your bet in play just encompass one bet or can you split it into several bets?
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Post by stokieian on Jun 24, 2012 13:27:10 GMT
Just lookin you need to lay England to qualify I think you laying them to win in 90 mins. If its Easter use another bookies and just stick £50 on Italy to qualify it amounts to the same thing.
And the free bet has to be 1 single bet only
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