|
|
Post by Lakeland Potter on Mar 8, 2010 20:09:20 GMT
TP is asking the lads to push on and beat last season's points total. An achievable target methinks.
But I was surprised to see that TP says that only 1 club (Blackburn) have finished on higher points in the second season after promotion. Any Stattos out there confirm this?
|
|
|
|
Post by scfc75 on Mar 8, 2010 20:45:45 GMT
Can't confirm but I did hear this myself on the coach on Sunday, may have just been repeating TP.
|
|
|
|
Post by wigginbird on Mar 8, 2010 20:49:14 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by march4 on Mar 8, 2010 21:09:16 GMT
It is absolutely true. It was mentioned before the season began.
Doesn't look good for Hull then does it ;D
|
|
|
|
Post by eranu on Mar 8, 2010 21:14:59 GMT
I think Hull are fucked, even with Bullard. Shame eh?
|
|
|
|
Post by fentonstokie1 on Mar 8, 2010 21:15:25 GMT
It is absolutely true. It was mentioned before the season began. Doesn't look good for Hull then does it ;D Oh bugger! ;D |
|
|
|
Post by Lakeland Potter on Mar 8, 2010 21:20:57 GMT
Amazing that, in 16 seasons, with three clubs promoted each season, only one has ever gained more points in their second season than their first season in the Prem. Even allowing for half the clubs or thereabouts not getting a second season, that still leaves about 24 opportunities for clubs to do better in the second season. You'd expect at least 5 or 6 to better their first season total.
It appears that there is such a thing as second season syndrome - but it isn't a relegation thing, just an inability for most clubs to match or better their first season points total.
|
|
|
|
Post by scfc75 on Mar 8, 2010 21:24:50 GMT
Sorry chaps, TP is wrong. Had half an hour to kill so went through the data.
It has happened 8 times before, as follows:
Blackburn - promoted 1992, first season 71pts, second season 84pts (won it the following year with 89pts!)
Derby - promoted 1996, first season 46pts, second season 55pts
Leicester - promoted 1996, first season 47pts, second season 53pts
Middlesboro - promoted 1998, first season 51pts, second season 52pts
Fulham - promoted 2001, first season 44pts, second season 48pts
Blackburn - promoted 2001, first season 46pts, second season 60pts
Bolton - promoted 2001, first season 40pts, second season 44pts
Birmingham - promoted 2002, first season 48pts, second season 50pts
...2001 was one hell of a promotion year as all 3 clubs stayed up then beat their points tally the year after.
Also noticed whilst doing my geeky thing that in the first 3 years of the Premier League, a promoted club finished in the top 4 the following year...1993 Blackburn, 1994 Newcastle, 1995 Forest. No chance of that happening these days.
Pulis out!!!
Edit: Oh and roughly, there is a 50/50 chance of surviving in your first season, only 5 clubs have ever stayed up in year 1 and then been relegated in year 2. Looking at 16 years of promotions, 24 have stayed up in their first year, and 24 have been relegated in their first year.
Of the 24 survivors, 8 bettered their year 1 tally in year 2 and 16 did worse (5 of those were relegated - Middlesboro, Bradford, Ipswich, WBA, Reading). So I suppose that you can conclude that 2nd season syndrome exists, not necessarily where clubs get relegated, but where they do worse (generally 66% of all clubs who stay up) in year 2.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lakeland Potter on Mar 8, 2010 21:33:00 GMT
Cheers scfc - my guess that there would be 5 or 6 proved to be on the low side. The first Blackburn one is a bit different as they were promoted into the first season of the Premier League so they didn't have to compete with clubs who already had Prem money. But all the others are genuine cases of clubs being promoted into a league where all the clubs had already had a taste of Prem riches.
Nowt since 2002 though so we would be bucking the current trend if we get more points this season.
|
|
|
|
Post by surreystokie on Mar 8, 2010 21:38:32 GMT
I admire TP's ambition, as it's not easy when the club has done so well in its first year. For example, Hull should have found it easier, with only 35 points last season, whereas we were daft enough to get ten more.  |
|
|
|
Post by scfc75 on Mar 8, 2010 21:47:02 GMT
I think what this does also show is that we can take nothing for granted... look at the 8 clubs who have bettered their year 1 tally in year 2... imagine the expectation with their fans to keep getting better, slowly creep up the table etc. etc...
Blackburn - regular strugglers in the last few seasons
Derby - gone
Leicester - gone, and then gone again temporarily to the third tier
Middlesboro - gone
Fulham - up and down, did well last year but almost went the year before (saved by an incredible run-in)
Bolton - regularly fancied for relegation, struggling again this year
Birmingham - gone but back (for now)
Not trying to put a downer on things but you can imagine the feeling on here if we get 50+ points this season, then struggle to get near to it next season...
|
|
